Beatpaths NFL Week 12 Preview

Time to preview the week’s other upcoming games. Here’s the post-Thanksgiving graph, along with the operative beatloops.
2005-12-Nfl-Clean-Thks
Splits: STL/ARI, BAL/PIT

  • DEN=>SD=>NYG=>DEN
  • NYJ=>MIA=>DEN=>NYJ
  • SF=>TB=>WAS=>SF
  • TEN=>BAL=>CLE=>TEN
  • TEN=>HOU=>CLE=>TEN
  • PHI=>OAK=>DAL=>PHI
  • PHI=>OAK=>WAS=>PHI
  • PHI=>KC=>WAS=>PHI
  • PHI=>SD=>NYG=>PHI
  • BUF=>MIA=>NO=>BUF
  • BUF=>NYJ=>TB=>BUF
  • BUF=>KC=>OAK=>BUF
  • MIN=>NO=>CAR=>MIN
  • ATL=>MIN=>GB=>ATL
  • NO=>CAR=>GB=>NO
  • NYJ=>MIA=>CAR=>NYJ
  • ATL=>NYJ=>TB=>ATL
  • MIA=>DEN=>KC=>MIA
  • MIA=>CAR=>TB=>MIA
  • ATL=>DET=>GB=>ATL
  • DET=>CLE=>CHI=>DET
  • BAL=>CLE=>CHI=>BAL
  • NE=>PIT=>SD=>NE
  • NE=>MIA=>DEN=>NE
  • CAR=>NE=>MIA=>CAR
  • CAR=>NE=>NO=>CAR
  • DAL=>SD=>OAK=>DAL
  • DAL=>NYG=>DEN=>DAL
  • DAL=>NYG=>WAS=>DAL
  • JAC=>SEA=>STL=>JAC

(Note: The beatfluke version of the graph only has 16 beatloops, not 32.)
This weekend’s games:
Baltimore at Cincinnati: No change to the graph either way. CIN has an invisible direct beatwin over BAL that would be either removed or reinforced.
Carolina at Buffalo: No change to the graph either way. If CAR wins, it creates a beatloop with Miami similar to other existing MIA=>CAR beatloops. If BUF wins, it creates a beatloop with NE, similar to an already existing MIA=>CAR=>NE=>MIA beatloop.
Chicago at Tampa Bay: If Chicago wins, it sheds its beatloss to Washington. (In the beatfluke graph, TB would also lose its beatwin to WAS.) If TB wins, Chicago already loses its beatwin over Carolina, and Carolina rises again due to having no beatlosses.
Cleveland at Minnesota: If Cleveland wins, Minnesota loses its beatwin to Detroit. If MIN wins, they shed their beatloss to Chicago. Minnesota would come out of this looking pretty good with a win.
New England at Kansas City: New England plays for a beatpath to KC. A KC victory creates a BUF=>KC=>NE=>BUF beatloop, for no change to the visible graph.
San Diego at Washington: A San Diego win reinforces existing beatloops, reinforcing their protection against getting hurt by their losses to PHI and DAL. A Washington win in turn reinforces their protection against getting hurt by KC, OAK, or NYG. Surprisingly enough, no visible change to the graph either way, although it would change parts of the beatfluke graph.
San Francisco at Tennessee: SF would reinforce an existing beatpath if they won. If TEN wins, it would bust apart the SF=>STL=>TEN beatpath, which would basically collapse the bottom four rows of the graph into two rows.
St. Louis at Houston: STL plays for a beatpath to HOU. If HOU wins, STL loses its beatpath to TEN.
Jacksonville at Arizona: No change to the graph either way, although some invisible reinforcing lines get added or removed.
Miami at Oakland: No change if Miami wins. If Oakland wins, they shed their beatloss to Denver. Although, they wouldn’t in the beatfluke graph.
Green Bay at Philadelphia: If GB wins, they’d actually develop a beatpath to PHI – that’s how weakened PHI is at this point. If PHI wins, they shed their beatloss to Atlanta. There’s a lot of possible movement for PHI this week.
Giants at Seattle: A key game. If the Giants win, Seattle loses their beatwin over Dallas, Dallas emerges with no beatlosses, and the Giants are further protected from their earlier loss to Dallas. If Seattle wins, they shed their only beatloss, to Washington, which will enable Seattle to climb significantly in the rankings, and Washington to sink lower.
New Orleans at the Jets: No visible change to the graph either way.
Pittsburgh at Indianapolis: IND reinforces an existing beatpath if they win. But if Indianapolis loses, it creates two key beatloops: PIT=>IND=>NE=>PIT, and PIT=>IND=>JAC=>PIT. PIT and NE would emerge with no beatlosses. DEN, IND, and PIT would probably be 1-2-3.

3 Responses to Beatpaths NFL Week 12 Preview

  1. Paul says:

    Early in the season there was some 4-team beatloops. But now that the season is in full swing, it appears that the way you treat beatloops (removing the 2- and 3-team beatloops) prevents 4-team beatloops. Is there any realistic chance at the end of the year of having 4-team beatloops? If not, do you believe it is reasonable to ignore the 4-team beatloops?

  2. ThunderThumbs says:

    Yeah, 4-team beatloops are more rare at this point. The system always does try to find all the beatloops, so it doesn’t ignore any – but by removing smaller beatloops first, it’s more likely that the larger beatloops aren’t loops anymore.

    That said, in 2004, it looks like the longer beatloops started showing up again later in the season, so it may be that all the season splits start making longer beatloops more common again.

    A couple weeks ago, there was a four-team beatloop in the middle of the day between the times that MIN beat NYG and GB upset… was it TB?

  3. Israel says:

    “GB upset… was it TB?”

    Atlanta.

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