NFL 2005 Week 14 Preview

It’s time for the preview of this week’s upcoming games. I’ve run some scenarios of the final weeks of the seasons, and it seems fairly likely that we’ll see more beatloops busting apart over the next few weeks, which will lead to the re-emergence of old wins and losses from earlier in the season. Very exciting.

This week, Carolina has a great shot at screaming up the rankings. A win against Tampa Bay would have a major effect on the rankings for Carolina, although it wouldn’t hurt Tampa Bay all that much. Elsewhere, Denver and Indianapolis are both at risk of falling in the rankings if they lose. Also this week, San Diego is at risk. They’ll have to win their game and also hope for Kansas City to lose in order for them to keep their place in the rankings. Kansas City has a lot of opportunity this week. If either Miami or Buffalo win their games as underdogs, Kansas City gets major rewards, as they will if KC defeats Dallas. The Giants hope for a St. Louis victory. Pittsburgh needs a victory to keep themselves from sliding even more in the rankings. And in the basement, Houston actually has an opportunity to rise dramatically with a win, hurting several fairly successful teams. But as usual, the more traumatic graph changes will only happen if the underdogs win.

Once again, here’s Week 13′s beatpath graph:

2005-13-Nfl-Clean

And the games:

Chicago at Pittsburgh: I actually have Chicago favored in this game, although it should be noted that the system doesn’t pay attention to home field advantage. If Chicago wins, Pittsburgh loses their beatpath over Cleveland, which will sink them lower. If Pittsburgh wins, they get a beatpath over Chicago.

Cleveland at Cincinnati: Cleveland would split with Cincinnati if they won, removing Cincinnati’s beatwin to them. A Cincinnati win would merely reinforce their existing beatpath to Cleveland.

Houston at Tennessee: The final weeks will have a lot of games between teams near the bottom of the graph, which is good news for those teams – more hopes of victory. A Houston win would actually have a major effect on the graph, as it would restore their beatwin over Cleveland. Miami and Oakland would be hurt badly by this. If Tennessee wins, they get a beatpath to Houston.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville: No change if Indianapolis wins, but if Jacksonville wins, they split with IND for the season and shake off their beatloss. DEN, IND, JAC would then be 1-2-3.

New England at Buffalo: No change if New England wins, but if Buffalo wins, Kansas City benefits tremendously by restoring their beatwin to New England. KC would be launched into the top ten, but would still be the sixth-best AFC team – and still not in a playoff spot thanks to the AFC East.

Oakland at the Jets: An Oakland win would make them shed their beatloss to Miami. No visible change if the Jets win, due to reinforced beatloops.

St. Louis at Minnesota: St. Louis can shake off their beatloss to the Giants with a win, which would strengthen their standing. It’s not bad when your only beatlosses are to Seattle, Washington, and Indianapolis. But more importantly, if St. Louis wins, the Giants can finally shake off their beatloss to Minnesota, which has had a huge impact on the graph this season. It wouldn’t help NYG’s ranking very much, but it would free them up for future upward movement. No change to the graph if Minnesota wins.

Tampa Bay at Carolina: If Tampa Bay wins, they get back their beatwin over Miami. If Carolina wins, look out – a huge vertical change to the graph as Carolina develops a beatpath to Tampa Bay. Both teams would be in the top ten.

Giants at Philadelphia: If the Giants win, they would develop a beatpath to Philadelphia, which wouldn’t really help their ranking. If Philadelphia wins, they’d split with the Giants and obliterate a couple of beatloops – however, the beatloops are reinforced, so there would be no real change to the graph. Any effect of this game wouldn’t become apparent except through other games results.

San Francisco at Seattle: SF would create a split with Seattle with a win, making no real change to the graph because of Seattle’s alternative beatpaths to SF. A Seattle win would reinforce an existing beatpath. No change either way.

Washington at Arizona: Washington gets a (sorely needed) beatwin if they beat Arizona. If Arizona wins, there is no change to the graph, but it weakens the reinforced SEA=>DAL=>DET=>ARI beatpath significantly.

Baltimore at Denver: If Baltimore wins, this would actually hurt Denver a fair amount because they would lose their beatwin over Jacksonville, which has strengthened Denver’s position for some time now. Their next-most impressive beatwin is over Dallas, and they’d fall a couple of slots in the rankings. If Denver wins, nothing changes due to reinforced beatpaths.

Kansas City at Dallas: If Kansas City wins, they get the reward of shedding their beatloss to San Diego. The effect would be that KC and DAL would both climb a slot, while SD would drop quite a bit. If Dallas wins, beatloops get reinforced with no change to the graph. Kind of odd, really – Dallas rises a slot if they lose, but stays still if they win. But the real effect is that a Dallas victory would give them even greater rewards next week if they defeat Washington, by giving them their beatpath to KC and SD.

Miami at San Diego: If Miami wins, they shed their beatloss to KC, while San Diego loses their beatwins to KC and the Jets. San Diego would fall a lot, Miami would rise a little. If San Diego wins, they’d enter a reinforced beatloop with Denver, with no visible effect on the graph.

Detroit at Green Bay: Detroit, who is favored, would get a beatpath over Green Bay with a win, and would rise a couple notches in the rankings. If Green Bay wins, Atlanta’s beatwin over Detroit would be restored, without much effect in the rankings.

New Orleans at Atlanta: A New Orleans victory would split the series, for no visible effect in the graph. An Atlanta victory would give them a beatpath over New Orleans, surpassing their existing beatloop relationship with New Orleans. No major effect in the rankings either way.

2 Responses to NFL 2005 Week 14 Preview

  1. Chris says:

    Actually, I’d think that St. Louis beating Minnesota would also allow the Giants to lose their beatloss to Minnesota, and emerge with no beatlosses (albiet one fewer beatwin), is this right?

  2. ThunderThumbs says:

    You’re absolutely right – I can’t believe I missed that, because that MIN=>NYG link is one of the biggest aspects of the graph and one of the most notable results of the season. It definitely deserves to be highlighted. I’ll update the entry. Good eye!

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