Time for the preview of this week’s upcoming games. The season projection still shows Washington overtaking the other two NFC East teams, even though they’re two games out of first place right now. I’m not sure how the actual playoff tiebreaker works for the NFC East, but if things shake out as they’re favored to shake out these next two weeks, Washington will be ranked first in the division.
This week, the Patriots have a great chance to advance. The Giants might rise, and are rooting for Detroit. Carolina could rise a little or fall a lot, but would be helped by an Atlanta win. Miami’s got another chance to define themselves, with one of the widest possible ranking swings we’ve seen. Pittsburgh needs to win to protect what they gained last week. Cincinatti is at risk. Dallas has a downside with no upside. And is Cleveland really as good as we say they are? Oakland and Green Bay could expose them.
Here’s Week 14′s beatpath graph:
And, the games:
Tampa Bay at New England: A Tampa Bay win would remove New England’s invisible direct beatwin over the Jets. But a New England win would result in a major boost for the Patriots, possibly boosting them into the top five.
Kansas City at the Giants: A Kansas City victory would reinforce existing beatloops. The Giants would develop a beatpath over KC with a win, which would finally help them rise up in the rankings after many weeks stuck in the middle. Kansas City is currently favored by a hair.
Denver at Buffalo: A Denver victory would reinforce existing beatpaths. If Buffalo wins, Buffalo would shed their beatloss to San Diego, and Denver would lose their beatwin over Oakland. It doesn’t look like Denver would lose their #2 spot, though.
Arizona at Houston: Arizona would reinforce an existing beatpath to Houston with a win, but would lose their beatpath over Tennessee with a loss.
Carolina at New Orleans: Carolina’s been suffering under their beatloss to New Orleans for a long time – it created four different beatloops. With a win, Carolina can bust all of them and develop a beatpath to Minnesota (and redundantly, to Green Bay), giving them a moderate boost in the rankings. If New Orleans wins, they’d sweep the season series – New Orleans would actually have a beatpath to Carolina. Either way, there will be a big shift in the rankings.
Jets at Miami: If the Jets win, they’d develop a beatpath over Miami, dumping the ambiguous Dolphins down near the bottom of the rankings again. If Miami wins, the season split would bust four beatloops. Miami would restore its beatwin over New Orleans, and the Jets would suffer more direct beatlosses: Denver, Carolina, and San Diego (the only one of which would be visible).
Philadelphia at St. Louis: Philadelphia develops a beatwin over St. Louis with a victory. Philly actually loses its beatwin over San Francisco with a loss. Wow.
Pittsburgh at Minnesota: Pittsburgh gets a beatwin over Minnesota with a victory, probably knocking Minnesota back behind Chicago in the rankings again. If Minnesota wins, Pittsburgh loses the beatpath over Chicago that it developed just last week, and drops back again in the rankings.
San Diego at Indianapolis: If San Diego wins, Indianapolis loses its invisible beatwin over Pittsburgh. Indianapolis develops a beatwin over San Diego with a win.
Seattle at Tennessee: Seattle reinforces a beatpath with a win. If Tennessee wins, Seattle loses its invisible beatwin over Arizona, and Tennessee sheds its beatloss to Arizona.
San Francisco at Jacksonville: Either way, a bunch of complicated stuff happens for no visible change in the graph.
Cincinnati at Detroit: Cincinnati reinforces a beatpath with a win. But if Detroit wins, Cincinnati loses both their direct beatwins over Chicago and Minnesota, and Detroit sheds its beatloss to Minnesota. Minnesota – and the Giants – would both rise in the rankings.
Cleveland at Oakland: Cleveland, who is favored according to beatpaths, would reinforce an existing beatpath with a win. If Oakland wins, the CLE=>MIA=>OAK beatpath segment would be obliterated and Cleveland would fall back to the middle of the rankings.
Dallas at Washington: If Dallas wins, the season split would obliterate two beatloops, which were reinforced by PHI, OAK, and KC, so no real change to the graph or rankings. If Washington wins, they get a beatpath over Dallas, and Dallas falls behind Atlanta in the rankings.
Atlanta at Chicago: If Atlanta wins, Chicago gets hurt by losing their beatwins over Green Bay and Carolina – Carolina would rise, but Atlanta wouldn’t. In fact, Carolina would leapfrog Atlanta if this happened. If Chicago wins, they’d develop a beatpath over Atlanta and rise slightly in the rankings while Atlanta would fall a few spots.
Green Bay at Baltimore: If Green Bay wins, they’d shed their beatloss to Cleveland, who would fall a few slots. If Baltimore wins, they’d develop a beatpath over Green Bay.