Our current tiebreaking algorithm (strength of direct beatwins) gave us a record of 9-7 this week; 143-81 for the season. The beatfluke variant was 10-6 after correctly picking WAS=>DAL; 146-78 for the season. This was one of those weeks where the record probably could have been improved significantly by paying attention to home-field-advantage. Many of the games were between teams that were only separated one or two slots in the rankings, and the system picked the away team for BAL=>GB, NYG=>KC, NE=>TB, and HOU=>ARI. It also missed on PHI=>STL and SD=>IND.

Ten splits and 37 three-team beatloops this week – less beatloops than last week, as the splits bust them apart. The beatfluke variant would kill fourteen more loops.

Rank	Team	Notes	Last Week	BeatPower
1		(Lost to SD) Indianapolis doesn’t have an alternate beatpath to San Diego, so for the first time all season, the Colts don’t have perfect beatpower (it’s possible to have perfect beatpower without being undefeated). The gap between Indianapolis and Denver shrinks.	1	98.1 (26/27 – 0/27)
2		(Beat BUF) Denver holds steady by using their passing game.	2	96.4 (26/28 – 0/28)
3		(Beat SF) This is the invisible third-place team. Their weak second-half schedule has enabled them to keep their place near the top of the rankings while not piling up any more impressive victories.	3	90.4 (23/26 – 2/26)
4		(Beat DET) The Bengals roll up another expected win and keep their place at #4.	4	86.0 (21/25 – 3/25)
5		(Beat MIN) Pittsburgh completes their rehabilitation by beating up on the NFC North.	7	83.3 (21/27 – 3/27)
6		(Beat ATL) By adding Atlanta to their beatpaths, Chicago strengthens their standing and rises a few notches to be the top-ranked NFC team.	9	75.0 (18/26 – 5/26)
7		(Beat TB) Defeating Tampa Bay was enough to rank New England ahead of almost the entire NFC, but they take the last “beatpath playoff” spot in the rankings for the AFC.	10	87.5 (19/24 – 1/24)
8		(Beat TEN) Other teams have been improving faster. Also, Seattle has had a fairly weak schedule for the last part of the season, so they don’t get much advantage from any of these wins. This is, of course, assuming they lose to Indianapolis. Seattle is also in danger of suffering under a beatloss to Washington again if Washington wins next week. The beatflukes variant has them one slot lower, swapped with Tampa Bay.	6	91.2 (14/17 – 0/17)
9		(Lost to NE) Tampa Bay still appears to be the best team in the NFC South, but their fall combined with Carolina’s resurgence is making things interesting.	5	82.6 (17/23 – 2/23)
10		(Beat NO) Carolina makes up for their earlier loss to New Orleans, and obliterates several beatloops in the process. Because of this, Carolina gets credit for some other victories and begins to look like a stronger and more consistent team than they did before.	17	69.2 (16/26 – 6/26)
11		(Lost to PIT) Minnesota were battling back and forth, right next to each other in the rankings, but this week separated them as Pittsburgh completed its sweep.	8	61.5 (15/26 – 9/26)
12		(Beat DAL) The NFC East is one of the more interesting parts of the graph. Washington is ranked ahead of the Giants despite being two games back. Most of the reason is because Washington has done a much better job at developing beatloops to teams that have beaten them. They’ve managed to find an important win to make up for just about all the losses they’ve suffered.	12	77.5 (12/20 – 1/20)
13		(Beat KC) Meanwhile, the Giants have suffered a couple of big losses, the big one being Minnesota, and they don’t have enough impressive wins to make up for it. Denver’s their only impressive win, but it’s beatlooped with San Diego. Meanwhile, Washington beat Seattle, which might become very relevant this week if Washington beats the Giants… That said, the Giants’ win over Kansas City helps them rise up a few slots.	18	52.0 (11/25 – 10/25)
14		(Beat OAK) Cleveland beat Oakland as expected, but there isn’t a lot of data holding their place in the graph – some weakening in their beatwins makes them fall back a couple of slots. Pittsburgh is favored to beat Cleveland, but Cleveland could still be dangerous.	11	56.2 (7/16 – 5/16)
15		(Lost to WAS) Boy, this team just collapsed this week. It seemed like beating Dallas was an impressive feat earlier this season – now they seem pretty mediocre. On top of that, they have to play Carolina next week.	13	72.2 (11/18 – 3/18)
16		(Lost to CHI) Atlanta loses to an improved Chicago team and falls a slot – the beatfluke rankings have them ranked even lower, at #21. (From here on down, the beatfluke rankings start to diverge quite a bit, as more old wins and losses start to come back into the graph.)	15	52.3 (9/22 – 8/22)
17		(Lost to CIN) Detroit rises – their expected loss didn’t hurt them, and their beatwins look slightly more impressive now, due to Baltimore’s win over Green Bay.	21	37.0 (8/23 – 14/23)
18		(Beat STL) Their win over St. Louis was an upset – Philadelphia rises by developing a new beatpath.	22	31.2 (5/24 – 14/24)
19		(Lost to NYG) It was tough to get a read on KC since they did a convincing impression of a good team, but they just don’t have any quality beatwins, and their loss to the Giants hurts a lot. The beatfluke variant has them at #22.	14	33.3 (4/21 – 11/21)
20		(Beat IND) San Diego beats Indianapolis and falls to #20. The beatfluke variant has them at #20 also. Why? Do I really think they’re worse than Detroit? Well, no. But in a system like this where every win and loss counts, San Diego is just inconsistent. Now, they have a ton of room to rise from here, as opposed to a team buried in beatlosses. San Diego has no beatlosses, so it’s still possible for them to shoot up the rankings. But they have really crappy beatwins, too, and our current tiebreaking algorithm penalizes that kind of wide disparity. As it is, San Diego is still not even close to making up for some of the losses they’ve suffered. Their losses to Pittsburgh and Miami hurt in particular, keeping them from beatpaths to NE, KC, and IND. As for why they fall this week? Their score is actually improved, but other teams (Carolina, the Giants) improved more and leapfrogged them. (Detroit did because Baltimore actually looks more impressive than some of San Diego’s beatwins.) San Diego’s a dangerous team, but you can’t count on them. Tough call who wins next week, as the beatfluke variant has them ranked ahead of KC, but I’d probably stick with home field advantage.	16	66.7 (5/15 – 0/15)
21		(Beat NYJ) Miami’s the other team that manages to obliterate multiple beatloops this week, but none of them end up helping Miami much. Still, Miami is turning out to be a good middle-of-the-road team. The beatflukes variant has them at #18.	19	41.7 (5/18 – 8/18)
22		(Beat GB) That was a freaky win over Green Bay. Maybe everything finally clicked for Boller? Maybe it will stick? (Beatfluke: #23)	25	27.3 (5/22 – 15/22)
23		(Lost to PHI) Philadelphia is still erratic and must have had a mini-peak against this team. St. Louis was actually favored. (Beatfluke: #24)	20	21.4 (3/21 – 15/21)
24		(Lost to CLE) It just doesn’t seem like Oakland should be this low, but they’ve just seemed to consistently underperform their potential all season long. (Beatfluke: #26)	23	20.5 (2/22 – 15/22)
25		(Lost to BAL) This was actually a familiar feeling for Green Bay – that sense of alien dread like you somehow took a wrong turn in the space-time continuum. That’s just not supposed to be happening to that quarterback. (Favre is getting pretty weighed down by all those asterisks…)	24	16.7 (3/21 – 17/21)
26		(Lost to HOU) The beatflukes variant actually has this team ranked #19, despite the upset loss to Houston, due to the otherwise convincing evidence that Arizona is still probably better than Houston.	27	12.5 (1/20 – 16/20)
27		(Lost to SEA) A solid effort against Seattle, but Seattle fought off the letdown.	31	13.6 (1/22 – 17/22)
28		(Lost to JAC) I saw some highlights of this game, what with the football flying out of Alex Smith’s hands every which direction. That was really weird.	30	5.0 (0/20 – 18/20)
29		(Lost to MIA) The beatflukes variant has the Jets ranked #31.	29	8.7 (0/23 – 19/23)
30		(Lost to CAR) The Saints were protected from some beatlosses due to their earlier win over Carolina, but the loss and the split makes them suffer more and drop a few slots. (Beatflukes: #29)	26	10.0 (2/25 – 22/25)
31		(Lost to DEN) That would have been a pretty major upset, the bottom of the rankings against the top of the rankings. But it wouldn’t have made much difference due to alternative beatpaths. (Beatflukes: #30)	28	8.9 (1/28 – 24/28)
32		(Beat ARI) Even a win isn’t enough to take them out of the basement. But Houston has shown throughout the season that they have the ability to play tough – they’re similar to San Francisco that way. You just kind of want to root them on, like that one-legged dog from that Trogdor the Burninator cartoon.	32	1.7 (0/29 – 28/29)