Time for the preview of this week’s upcoming games. This is the final week of the season, and it’s guaranteed now that the top twelve teams in the rankings will not match the NFL playoff teams. The question is, how extreme will the difference be? It turns that for every combination of wins and losses I can find, either the Giants would be out of the top six, or Minnesota would be in the top six, both cases of which are contrary to what has already been decided for the NFL playoffs. And this isn’t because of the MIN=>NYG beatpath, either – it turns out there are a few opportunities for that beatpath to be obliterated this week.
Here’s Week 16′s beatpath graph:
And, the games:
Denver at San Diego: Denver will develop a beatpath to San Diego with a win. If San Diego wins, something interesting happens. The smaller beatloop of DEN=>SD=>NYG=>DEN stops existing, but a larger beatloop of NYG=>DEN=>WAS=>SEA=>NYG gets created instead. This is a fairly key beatpath segment. Denver would fall back to #2, and Washington would slide a few notches but still be ranked first in the NFC East.
Giants at Oakland: If the Giants win, they reinforce an existing beatpath. If Oakland wins, the Giants would lose their beatwin over Kansas City, and Oakland would shed their beatloss to Denver. The Giants would fall well into the bottom half of the league.
Arizona at Indianapolis: If Arizona wins, Indianapolis would lose credit for a direct beatwin to Houston, and one of their two beatwins to Jacksonville. An Indianapolis win would reinforce an existing beatpath.
Baltimore at Cleveland: If Baltimore wins, they would develop a beatpath to Cleveland and would rise significantly in the rankings. If Cleveland wins, they would split the season series, and Tennessee and Chicago would redevelop their beatwins to Baltimore. Baltimore would sink significantly. In other words, it’s kind of a make-or-break game for Baltimore to define whether this became a successful season for them.
Buffalo at the Jets: Buffalo would develop a beatpath to the Jets with a win. If the Jets win, they’d split the series and bust a couple of beatloops. Tampa Bay would redevelop their beatwin over Buffalo, and the Jets would redevelop their beatwin over Oakland.
Carolina at Atlanta: Carolina would get a beatwin over Atlanta with the win. If Atlanta wins, they’d redevelop their beatwin over Miami. No real change in the rankings either way.
Chicago at Minnesota: If Chicago wins, they’d develop a beatpath to Minnesota and finally be solidly ranked ahead of them. They need this win for the beatpath graph to consider them in the top six playoff-eligible teams for the NFC. If Minnesota wins, they redevelop their beatpath to Cleveland, for no real change in the rankings.
Cincinnati at Kansas City: If Cincinnati wins, they develop a beatwin over Kansas City, for no real change in the rankings. If Kansas City wins, something interesting happens: a beatloop of MIN=>NYG=>KC=>CIN=>MIN gets created. The Giants would be hurt more than helped by this, but it turns out that this win combined with several other upsets could get the Giants up to #6 in the NFC, but it still wouldn’t make them playoff eligible because no NFC North teams would be represented in those top six!
Detroit at Pittsburgh: If Detroit wins, Pittsburgh would lose their beatwins over Minnesota and Chicago, which are the two wins that really helped them rise over the past few weeks. Pittsburgh would probably drop to be #6 in the AFC. If Pittsburgh wins, they’d reinforce an existing beatpath.
Miami at New England: If Miami wins, it gets interesting. Most interesting is that Miami would redevelop its beatwin over San Diego. Denver would lose credit for defeating Jacksonville. New England would lose credit for defeating Tampa Bay. Miami has had its thumb in a lot of pies this season. If New England wins, they reinforce an existing beatpath.
New Orleans at Tampa Bay: If New Orleans wins, they regain credit for their victory over the Jets. If Tampa Bay wins, they reinforce an existing beatpath.
Houston at San Francisco: If Houston wins, they shed their beatloss to St. Louis. If San Francisco wins, they shed their invisible beatloss from Arizona, for no change in the graph.
Tennessee at Jacksonville: Doesn’t this seem like another game where Jacksonville will struggle in the first half before putting them away? If Tennessee wins, they’ll split the season. If Jacksonville wins, they reinforce an existing beatpath. No change in the graph or rankings either way.
Seattle at Green Bay: If Seattle wins, they reinforce an existing beatpath. If Green Bay wins, Seattle loses credit for their invisible direct beatwin over Philadelphia. No real change either way.
Washington at Philadelphia: If Washington wins, they reinforce an existing beatpath. If Philadelphia wins, strange things are afoot at the Circle K. We witness the creation of four five-team beatloops after the destruction of three three-team beatloops. Too many things happen to list here, but the upshot is that Washington’s best beatwin would be over St. Louis, while their only beatloss would be to Denver. The graph would become a bit flatter. Washington’s placement in the rankings would be almost entirely dependent on the outcome of other games.
St. Louis at Dallas: If St. Louis wins, they’d shed their invisible direct beatloss from Philadelphia. Dallas would lose credit for their invisible direct beatwin to San Francisco. If Dallas wins, they’d reinforce an existing beatpath. So no real changes either way.