Our current tiebreaking algorithm (strength of direct beatwins) gave us a record of 9-7 this week; 152-88 for the season. The beatflukes variant was also 9-7; 155-85 for the season. Again this week, there were some obvious home field advantage games that might have led to a better record with some human input. The upsets: BAL=>MIN, KC=>SD, DAL=>CAR, BUF=>CIN, SEA=>IND, ARI=>PHI, and SF=>STL.
Twelve splits, 37 three-team beatloops, and six four-team beatloops (all thanks to BUF=>CIN) this week. The beatfluke variant would kill five of the splits and four of the three-team beatloops.
| Rank | Team | Notes | Last Week | BeatPower |
1 |
 |
(Beat OAK) Denver finally takes over the top spot from Indianapolis, more because of Indianapolis’ loss than Denver’s win. But, Denver seems to have this way of being able to win convincingly even when they don’t look like they are on all cylinders. People also seem less likely to grouse about Denver letting Buffalo stay in their game with Denver two weeks ago with Kelly Holcomb at quarterback, after Buffalo beat Cincinnati this week. |
2 |
96.6(27/29 – 0/29) |
2 |
 |
(Lost to SEA) People may want to affix an asterisk to Indianapolis’ loss this week, due to the struggles they’ve had and a couple of key starters being out. But it was still an impressive effort by Seattle. |
1 |
96.3(25/27 – 0/27) |
3 |
 |
(Beat HOU) This #3 slot has been rock solid for Jacksonville all season. For all their consistency, they’re a bizarrely unknown factor for the playoffs. I think they’re being underestimated, but it’s hard to say. |
3 |
89.1(20/23 – 2/23) |
4 |
 |
(Beat NYG) Surprise! Washington has managed to overcome the beatloops that had earlier removed the credit for their win over Seattle. This placement shows the problem with the NFL’s scheduling and playoff system – despite the Giants’ greater number of victories, Washington appears to have more win value. |
12 |
89.1(19/23 – 1/23) |
5 |
 |
(Beat IND) Part of Washington’s high placement is because of Seattle. Seattle rises a few slots thanks to the strength of Dallas’ victory over Carolina. If you’re one to discount Washington’s victory over Seattle, Washington wouldn’t be so high. Future plans for beatpaths include giving users the ability to create graphs by excluding certain games. However, the beatflukes variant has Seattle ranked #7, below NE and PIT. |
8 |
86.4(18/22 – 2/22) |
6 |
 |
(Beat NYJ) Whew! This team will make the playoffs a lot of fun this year. |
7 |
87.0(18/23 – 1/23) |
7 |
 |
(Beat CLE) Pittsburgh beats Cleveland as expected, but their beatwins look slightly weaker due to the BUF=>CIN craziness. |
4 |
79.2(17/24 – 3/24) |
8 |
 |
(Lost to BUF) This was one of the most dramatic, traumatic beatpath moments of the season. Really fun to see how it shook out. The following beatpath segments were all obliterated by Cincinnati’s loss: CIN=>MIN=>NO=>BUF, CIN=>CHI=>NO, CIN=>GB=>NO, CIN=>DET=>NO, CIN=>CHI=>CAR=>BUF, and CHI=>ATL=>BUF . You can see the main effects: Chicago and Cincinnati get hurt. Chicago has some other things going for them, but there’s reason definitely more reason to doubt Cincinnati now. |
5 |
65.8(9/19 – 3/19) |
9 |
 |
(Beat ATL) Tampa Bay holds steady with a pretty spectacular coaching breakdown on the part of Atlanta. |
9 |
81.8(16/22 – 2/22) |
10 |
 |
(Beat CAR) Dallas looks relatively strong again with their victory over Carolina, jumping past the Giants. That was a pretty cool matchup between two teams that just haven’t managed to develop strong personalities this season. |
14 |
82.5(16/20 – 3/20) |
11 |
 |
(Lost to DAL) Carolina suffers a beatloss to Dallas, but doesn’t get hurt too badly in the rankings. Their beatwin over Minnesota keeps them looking pretty good. |
10 |
72.0(15/25 – 4/25) |
12 |
 |
(Lost to BAL) The Vikings drop slightly due to Carolina suffering a beatloss to Dallas. Beatflukes: #15 |
11 |
56.7(14/30 – 10/30) |
13 |
 |
(Lost to WAS) Yes, the Giants are ranked third in the NFC East. But how much of that is because of their seemingly fluke loss to the Vikings? I’ve assumed it was a key part of the graph, but I just ran a scenario. Remove the MIN=>NYG win, and… the Giants rise to #12, and the Vikings fall to #15, just behind Chicago. Not a major change, and the Giants would still be ranked third in the NFC East. Judging by win/loss performance, this team is highly overrated. In fact, in running the Week 17 scenarios, there is no longer any possible scenario where the Giants will be among the top six (playoff) NFC teams. The schedule quirks are going to end up screwing an NFC East team and probably an NFC South team as well. So far, it appears that the NFC teams that most deserve to make the playoffs are WAS, SEA, CHI, DAL, TB, and CAR. And the beatflukes variant has the Giants at #19, behind Atlanta! |
13 |
50.0(11/23 – 11/23) |
14 |
 |
(Lost to KC) San Diego rises on the loss because Buffalo looks stronger, which boosts San Diego on their strength-of-beatwin tiebreaker. Beatflukes: #12 |
19 |
66.7(5/15 – 0/15) |
15 |
 |
(Beat GB) One of the biggest drops of the week due to the BUF=>CIN upset. Chicago’s conquests don’t appear so strong anymore. However, it’s also clear that Chicago’s probably better than their placement in the graph, since this team has so obviously improved over the course of the season – probably moreso than any team aside from New England. Actually, there is probably a way to test this by running beatpath scenarios that remove weeks from earlier in the season… hmm…  The system will be picking Minnesota to win next week, but I’d be tempted to overrule it with a Chicago pick. Beatflukes: #16 |
6 |
59.5(8/21 – 4/21) |
16 |
 |
(Lost to TB) The Falcons hold steady by apparently playing true to form. Relatively decent team that can’t get over the hump. Beatflukes: #17 |
16 |
52.4(7/21 – 6/21) |
17 |
 |
(Beat NO) The Lions appeared to take comfort in their win over the Saints, but it was an expected victory. Beatflukes: #20 |
17 |
35.4(6/24 – 13/24) |
18 |
 |
(Lost to PIT) The Browns drop a few slots from their earlier, partially due to Miami appearing slightly weaker due to some upstream shifts. Beatflukes: #13 |
15 |
53.3(6/15 – 5/15) |
19 |
 |
(Beat SD) This is another team that appears overrated out in sportswriter-land. Great running back, but what else? The beatflukes variant has them at #14, though, but still behind San Diego. |
20 |
35.7(6/21 – 12/21) |
20 |
 |
(Beat PHI) Arizona rises by developing a beatpath to the poor Eagles. Beatflukes: #24 |
26 |
26.2(5/21 – 15/21) |
21 |
 |
(Lost to ARI) The beatflukes variant has Philadelphia all the way down to #26, below the Jets. |
18 |
25.0(4/24 – 16/24) |
22 |
 |
(Beat TEN) The Dolphins basically hold steady here, despite the realignment of all the teams above them. Beatflukes: #18 |
21 |
26.1(4/23 – 15/23) |
23 |
 |
(Beat MIN) Baltimore’s doing really well lately, but they have had a major pile of beatlosses and beatloops to fight through, and they’re not done yet. Incidentally, Baltimore’s another team that Denver had a little bit of trouble with, which looks less concerning now. Beatflukes: #21 |
22 |
46.2(3/13 – 4/13) |
24 |
 |
(Beat CIN) Buffalo up seven thanks to shedding its collection of beatlosses. It isn’t often that a team gets an opportunity to change the graph that drastically. Fun when it happens. Beatflukes: #22 |
31 |
41.7(1/18 – 4/18) |
25 |
 |
(Beat STL) San Francisco gets a sweep! Beatflukes: #29 |
28 |
16.7(3/21 – 17/21) |
26 |
 |
(Lost to DEN) Oakland has usually given Denver trouble at Mile High. It wasn’t even a contest this time, though. Beatflukes: #23 |
24 |
15.9(2/22 – 17/22) |
27 |
 |
(Lost to CHI) Ah, the old familiar feelings of ughs and pits of dread. Poor Packers. Beatflukes: #28 |
25 |
12.5(0/20 – 15/20) |
28 |
 |
(Lost to SF) It seems so hard to believe this team beat Jacksonville. Beatflukes: #30 |
23 |
11.9(2/21 – 18/21) |
29 |
 |
(Lost to NE) I missed MNF this week due to some Christmas family drama, but from what I hear it was kind of hard to actually watch the game since MNF was in the way. Beatflukes: #25 |
29 |
11.9(0/21 – 16/21) |
30 |
 |
(Lost to MIA) Beatflukes: #27 |
27 |
13.0(1/23 – 18/23) |
31 |
 |
(Lost to DET) The beatflukes variant actually has the Saints ranked dead last. |
30 |
5.8(0/26 – 23/26) |
32 |
 |
(Lost to JAC) This has got to be the best last-place team in a very long time. And they’re quite convincingly in last place – every team they’ve played now has a beatpath to them, even the ones they’ve beaten. But you really do get the feeling they’re only a couple of tweaks away from being mediocre or even good. Compare that to teams that are slightly better than Houston, but really solidly where they are, like Detroit. Beatflukes: #31 |
32 |
0.0(0/28 – 28/28) |