Here’s the final power rankings before the Super Bowl. We’re crossing things up this week, by highlighting the beatflukes version of the power rankings. We’ve reported on them all year, but what pushed me over the edge is that the beatflukes version of the rankings are the only ones that could enable Pittsburgh to be #1 if they win the Super Bowl. Reinforcing the decision is that the beatflukes rankings have been slightly more accurate all year in terms of predicting victories.
Once again, here is the beatpath graph. This is the beatflukes variant.
And, the power rankings. And once again, because the one game seems to matter quite a bit, we’ll be comparing it with if New England had beaten Miami in Week 17. “NE” will be the marking for that version of the rankings.
| Rank | Team | Notes | Last Week | BeatPower |
1 |
 |
(Beat CAR) Seattle retains its #1 ranking, as the clear favorite in the Super Bowl. NE: #1 |
1 |
97.9(23/24 – 0/24) |
2 |
 |
(Bye) Washington jumps higher in the rankings since their loss to Seattle doesn’t look so bad anymore. NE: #2 |
4 |
91.1(23/28 – 0/28) |
3 |
 |
(Bye) The Colts are still ranked ahead of Pittsburgh, as if the system is saying that it still believes that it was a fluke loss – this will change if Pittsburgh proves strong enough to defeat Seattle. Interestingly, if New England had defeated Miami, Indianapolis would drop quite a bit in the rankings, because they would finally suffer a beatloss – to San Diego, of all teams. NE: #8 |
2 |
88.6(18/22 – 1/22) |
4 |
 |
(Bye) The real tragedy of the playoffs – this team would have made the NFC very interesting. NE: #4 |
5 |
86.5(21/26 – 2/26) |
5 |
 |
(Lost to SEA) #5 really seems about right for this team that seemed very talented, yet slightly wanting, all season long. NE: #5 |
6 |
82.7(20/26 – 3/26) |
6 |
 |
(Beat DEN) It was definitely a tough road, but beating Seattle will enable Pittsburgh to take the beatflukes #1 ranking, just by the skin of their teeth. NE: #6 |
10 |
86.1(13/18 – 0/18) |
7 |
 |
(Lost to PIT) If New England had beaten Miami, Denver would be given more of a boost thanks to a higher quality win over New England, and would therefore still be ranked highly – higher than Pittsburgh. Again a case of Pittsburgh being seen as winning fluke victories, and only deserving of credit for those victories if they also upset Seattle. NE: #3 |
3 |
77.5(11/20 – 0/20) |
8 |
 |
(Bye) It’s an ecology, with every game depending on every other game. For that reason, if they had beaten Miami, they would be seen as a slightly better team, but San Diego would also be squeaking in ahead of them. NE: #9 |
7 |
66.7(13/24 – 5/24) |
9 |
 |
(Bye) In both variants, Kansas City (in hindsight) ends up ranked ahead of Cincinnati. NE: #11 |
11 |
77.8(10/18 – 0/18) |
10 |
 |
(Bye) Hindsight logic is funny – in part because the NFC has looked so surprisingly strong in the playoffs – stronger than the AFC – the Giants case is helped as well. At this point, it appears that the Cowboys should have made the playoffs instead of Tampa Bay, not instead of the Giants. NE: #14 |
12 |
56.7(6/15 – 4/15) |
11 |
 |
(Bye) NE: #10 |
8 |
55.3(8/19 – 6/19) |
12 |
 |
(Bye) Ranked ahead of Cincinnati in both variants. Talk about under the radar. NE: #16 |
14 |
46.9(5/16 – 6/16) |
13 |
 |
(Bye) If New England had beaten Miami, they’d be ranked in the bottom half of the league. NE: #17 |
17 |
43.2(6/22 – 9/22) |
14 |
 |
(Bye) NE: #12 |
15 |
65.6(7/16 – 2/16) |
15 |
 |
(Bye) One of those teams that looks like an entirely different team if you squint at them. Or from a slightly different angle. If New England had beaten Miami, they’d have ranked much higher. NE: #7 |
18 |
60.0(4/15 – 1/15) |
16 |
 |
(Bye) NE: #15 |
13 |
61.8(4/17 – 0/17) |
17 |
 |
(Bye) Helped by their victory over New England. NE: #25 |
9 |
60.0(4/15 – 1/15) |
18 |
 |
(Bye) NE: #13 |
16 |
52.6(6/19 – 5/19) |
19 |
 |
(Bye) NE: #19 |
20 |
37.5(4/16 – 8/16) |
20 |
 |
(Bye) NE: #18 |
19 |
35.3(2/17 – 7/17) |
21 |
 |
(Bye) NE: #20 |
21 |
33.3(1/21 – 8/21) |
22 |
 |
(Bye) NE: #21 |
23 |
27.5(2/20 – 11/20) |
23 |
 |
(Bye) NE: #22 |
24 |
26.3(2/19 – 11/19) |
24 |
 |
(Bye) NE: #24 |
22 |
25.0(2/20 – 12/20) |
25 |
 |
(Bye) NE: #23 |
25 |
22.2(0/18 – 10/18) |
26 |
 |
(Bye) NE: #28 |
26 |
23.7(1/19 – 11/19) |
27 |
 |
(Bye) NE: #26 |
27 |
21.1(0/19 – 11/19) |
28 |
 |
(Bye) NE: #27 |
28 |
14.7(1/17 – 13/17) |
29 |
 |
(Bye) Always #29. NE: #29 |
29 |
11.9(0/21 – 16/21) |
30 |
 |
(Bye) NE: #31 |
30 |
9.5(0/21 – 17/21) |
31 |
 |
(Bye) NE: #30 |
31 |
9.1(0/22 – 18/22) |
32 |
 |
(Bye) NE: #32 |
32 |
10.4(0/24 – 19/24) |
You write “Interestingly, if New England had defeated Seattle, Indianapolis would drop quite a bit in the rankings, because they would finally suffer a beatloss – to San Diego, of all teams.”
That should read “Interestingly, if New England had defeated MIAMI,” No?
Yep! I’ll change it. Thanks.
That was so you’ll know that someone out here reads this stuff.
Heh. It actually seems to get ok readership even if people don’t comment. I’ll be writing more about basketball soon and we’ll see what happens then.