Long post here – we have the final beatpath graph for 2005, the final power rankings for the end of 2005, and the picks for Week 1. This is based off of taking all of the game results seriously (even Miami beating New England in the final game), using the beatflukes variant. We’ll use this chart to create picks for Week 1 – we’ve already seen that Pittsburgh was a clear pick over Miami for the season opener.
See below for the power rankings.
As I’m fond of saying, the beatpaths are an ecology, and the final power rankings are a perfect illustration – one game (the super bowl) shuffled the final rankings for several teams.
| Rank | Team | Notes | Last Week | BeatPower |
1 |
 |
(Beat SEA) They got there by the skin of their teeth, but their series of upsets finally allowed them to be considered #1. The dramatic climb shows how much of an upset these victories were, but the fact that they did attain the #1 ranking (it’s quite possible for the Super Bowl winner to not end up ranked #1) shows that they very much deserve to be there, and that it’s not a fluke victory that they have to live up to in 2006. |
6 |
100.0(27/27 – 0/27) |
2 |
 |
(Lost to PIT) So close, and considered very strong for the new season. |
1 |
94.0(23/25 – 1/25) |
3 |
 |
(Bye) Remember, it was Denver’s loss to Pittsburgh that allowed Washington to rise, which in turn allowed other NFC teams to rise. Denver’s image was propping up a lot of the AFC’s apparent strength. |
2 |
91.1(23/28 – 0/28) |
4 |
 |
(Bye) Dallas was the true tragedy of 2005. By their strength of victories (as measured by beatpaths) they were one of the strongest teams in the NFL, and yet they didn’t make the playoffs. |
4 |
83.3(21/27 – 3/27) |
5 |
 |
(Bye) Carolina was at times suffering from the same split-personality syndrome as Miami and San Diego, but not as pronounced. |
5 |
79.6(20/27 – 4/27) |
6 |
 |
(Bye) Seattle’s Super Bowl loss pushed Indianapolis down a little further. |
3 |
86.4(18/22 – 2/22) |
7 |
 |
(Bye) |
7 |
84.0(18/25 – 1/25) |
8 |
 |
(Bye) The reasons for KC and NE’s swap appear fairly murky, deep down in the ecology. |
9 |
77.8(10/18 – 0/18) |
9 |
 |
(Bye) |
8 |
62.5(13/24 – 7/24) |
10 |
 |
(Bye) |
10 |
53.1(6/16 – 5/16) |
11 |
 |
(Bye) |
11 |
50.0(8/20 – 8/20) |
12 |
 |
(Bye) |
12 |
44.1(5/17 – 7/17) |
13 |
 |
(Bye) |
13 |
41.3(6/23 – 10/23) |
14 |
 |
(Bye) |
14 |
65.6(7/16 – 2/16) |
15 |
 |
(Bye) |
15 |
56.2(4/16 – 2/16) |
16 |
 |
(Bye) |
16 |
61.1(4/18 – 0/18) |
17 |
 |
(Bye) Depending on which subtle variation the beatpath system used, Miami ended up in vastly different places in the graph, but the beatflukes variant was most accurate. Miami will be better this year, but there’s a lot of needed improvement between the bottom half of the league and the darling position many of this season’s prognosticators apparently believe Miami will hold. |
17 |
59.4(4/16 – 1/16) |
18 |
 |
(Bye) |
18 |
52.6(6/19 – 5/19) |
19 |
 |
(Bye) |
19 |
35.3(4/17 – 9/17) |
20 |
 |
(Bye) |
20 |
31.6(2/19 – 9/19) |
21 |
 |
(Bye) |
21 |
31.8(1/22 – 9/22) |
22 |
 |
(Bye) Another murky swap between San Francisco and Cleveland, all because of the Super Bowl outcome. |
23 |
26.3(2/19 – 11/19) |
23 |
 |
(Bye) |
22 |
26.2(2/21 – 12/21) |
24 |
 |
(Bye) |
24 |
25.0(2/20 – 12/20) |
25 |
 |
(Bye) |
25 |
21.1(0/19 – 11/19) |
26 |
 |
(Bye) |
26 |
22.5(1/20 – 12/20) |
27 |
 |
(Bye) |
27 |
20.0(0/20 – 12/20) |
28 |
 |
(Bye) |
28 |
14.7(1/17 – 13/17) |
29 |
 |
(Bye) |
29 |
11.9(0/21 – 16/21) |
30 |
 |
(Bye) |
30 |
9.5(0/21 – 17/21) |
31 |
 |
(Bye) |
31 |
9.1(0/22 – 18/22) |
32 |
 |
(Bye) |
32 |
10.4(0/24 – 19/24) |
And now for the picks. Normally I would look at how each game would affect the beatpath graph, but since we will be starting fresh soon, that won’t have the value it normally would. However, going by the 2005 power rankings, most of the picks are pretty clear.
PHI@HOU: This is a clear pick for Philadelphia. Houston is slightly upgraded and is at home, but their power rank differential is 11, and most pick variants I ran where I tried to account for home field advantaged topped out at a differential of four or less.
SEA@DET: A clear pick for Seattle – it’s also what I might call a “beatpick” since Seattle actually has a beatpath to Detroit.
NO@CLE: A clear pick for Cleveland – New Orleans ended up ranked last. Cleveland ended up ranked pretty low, too, but people might remember that Cleveland was making some pretty surprising noises in the beatpath graph near the end of the season.
ATL@CAR: A clear pick for Carolina, with a power rankings differential of 15.
NYJ@TEN: Ah-ha. This one is a tough one. They are separated by one spot in the power rankings, with the Jets slightly favored. I’d probably be tempted to pick Tennessee because they are at home, but since I’m not correcting for home field advantage, the technical pick is the Jets, so I’m going with them.
BAL@TB: A clear pick for Tampa Bay, with a differential of 8.
DEN@STL: A clear pick for Denver, with a differential of 21! This is also a “beatpick”.
BUF@NE: A clear pick for New England, with a differential of 12. This is also a “beatpick”.
CIN@KC: This is interesting. This is a “beatpick” for Kansas City, since they developed their beatpath over them late in the season. So it’s a clear pick for Kansas City at home. I personally wouldn’t be surprised to see the upset, but Kansas City is the pick.
DAL@JAC: This is a “beatpick” for Dallas – they have a beatpath to Jacksonville.
CHI@GB: This is a “beatpick” for Chicago, with a differential of 15.
SF@ARI: This is a “beatpick” for Arizona, who ended up ranked a lot more highly late in the season than people would expect. They might be something of a sleeper team this season.
IND@NYG: This is another interesting matchup. It’s a pick for Indianapolis, with a rankings differential of 4. Generally, home field advantage isn’t enough to make up for that, but it’s close.
MIN@WAS: This is a “beatpick” for Washington.
SD@OAK: This is a “beatpick” for San Diego, with a differential of 16.
MIA@PIT: This was a clear pick for Pittsburgh, but not a “beatpick”.