And here are the power rankings for the conclusion of Week 2. While we’re still playing with how much data to represent, I’ll include both versions of power rankings – 2005/2006 combined (which I’ll treat as official), and 2006 only (which I’ll include just for fun). Both power rankings versions were 11-5 last week. Read on for the power rankings.
Here are the power rankings for 2005/2006 so far, which we’ll use as the official rankings for this week. Here’s the graph for visual reference:
| Rank | Team | Notes | Last Week | BeatPower |
1 |
 |
(Beat KC) Yeah I’m a Denver homer, but I swear I didn’t know it was going to do this! But Denver, Indianapolis, and Seattle are the only three teams without beatlosses this week, and Denver is the only team with beatwins over San Diego and Washington, so they’re pushed up to the top. |
3 |
100.0(29/29 – 0/29) |
2 |
 |
(Beat HOU) Indianapolis holds steady. |
2 |
96.6(27/29 – 0/29) |
3 |
 |
(Beat NYJ) Since Carolina lost, New England gets their beatwin over Jacksonville restored, which gives them added strength. It’s unclear whether Denver and New England will both be over their “issues” by the time they play this week, but it should be a good game either way. Denver is technically the pick, but if you want to adjust for home field advantage (previous experiments have shown that the pick record slightly improves if the home team is within three or four of the visiting team in the power rankings), then maybe New England is the pick, since they’re only separated by two slots. Denver is the official pick, though. |
8 |
91.4(26/29 – 2/29) |
4 |
 |
(Beat PIT) They play at Indianapolis this week, another closely matched game, going by these power rankings. This week has a ton of closely matched games. |
6 |
86.5(22/26 – 3/26) |
5 |
 |
(Lost to JAC) Pittsburgh still has a lot of teams under them, so they’re not too badly damaged by the loss. All four teams above them occupy the top of the power rankings, too. |
1 |
76.2(15/21 – 4/21) |
6 |
 |
(Beat ARI) We’re finally at the last of the three teams with no beatlosses. Seattle isn’t really any worse – it’s just that New England and Jacksonville leapfrogged them with their new beatwin quality. This happens when the graph gets more vertical. |
4 |
87.5(15/20 – 0/20) |
7 |
 |
(Beat WAS) Dallas gets back their win over Carolina, and with Seattle shedding their Pittsburgh beatloss, it enables Dallas to rise again. Dallas is still fascinating in terms of beatpaths. It appears their record underperforms their win quality – they’ll lose a few more games, but they’ll win against quality teams. |
15 |
68.4(12/19 – 5/19) |
8 |
 |
(Lost to MIN) Carolina has a beatloop protecting them from their loss to Minnesota, so they don’t fall hard. |
7 |
60.4(11/24 – 6/24) |
9 |
 |
(Beat CLE) Cincinnati holds steady. They play Pittsburgh, only four slots away. |
9 |
65.9(12/22 – 5/22) |
10 |
 |
(Lost to ATL) Tampa Bay hosts Carolina, only two slots away! |
11 |
55.0(5/20 – 3/20) |
11 |
 |
(Beat CAR) Why did Minnesota fall behind Carolina after being ranked ahead of Carolina last week and then beating them? (This is the beatpaths nightmare scenario. WTF?) For one thing, CIN=>MIN re-emerged. And more importantly, Pittsburgh’s loss buried Minnesota underneath Pittsburgh’s beatlosses. But most importantly, the Giants’ quality win allowed them to shake their beatloss to Minnesota, so Minnesota loses that support. The end result is kind of funny – the other teams had that quality just before their games, it’s just that it hadn’t come through in reality yet. So the reality was that Minnesota’s win over Carolina was an upset, even though beatpaths correctly picked the outcome. (Sorry for being right!) |
5 |
54.8(8/21 – 6/21) |
12 |
 |
(Beat DET) Chicago hosts Minnesota, only one slot away! Chicago sure looks better than last year… but then again, their competition hasn’t been stiff so far this season. |
13 |
57.1(8/21 – 5/21) |
13 |
 |
(Beat PHI) Neat win, but it was against the Eagles. Then again, if Philadelphia proves to be a much better team this season, it’ll push the Giants up, too. |
16 |
55.0(9/20 – 7/20) |
14 |
 |
(Lost to DAL) Maybe Washington will get well against Houston. |
14 |
63.3(5/15 – 1/15) |
15 |
 |
(Beat TB) Atlanta still has a ways to go to make up for past performance, and beating New Orleans probably won’t help them much. |
17 |
52.6(5/19 – 4/19) |
16 |
 |
(Beat TEN) San Diego beat someone they already had a beatpath to, and they lost their beatwin over Buffalo. Remember how inconsistent San Diego was last year – occasionally explosive, but completely capable of stinking. They haven’t had quality beatwins for a while. Dominating wins over Tennessee and Oakland don’t change anything. |
10 |
60.0(4/15 – 1/15) |
17 |
 |
(Lost to DEN) Their loss to Denver makes their beatloss to the Giants re-emerge. |
12 |
35.3(3/17 – 8/17) |
18 |
 |
(Lost to BUF) Miami’s loss was an upset, but they still look about the same. |
19 |
38.2(2/17 – 6/17) |
19 |
 |
(Beat OAK) Beating Oakland evidently doesn’t matter worth a darn. |
18 |
34.4(2/16 – 7/16) |
20 |
 |
(Lost to CIN) Cleveland hosts Baltimore – only separated by one slot! |
20 |
34.4(2/16 – 7/16) |
21 |
 |
(Beat MIA) Buffalo holds steady, but their place in the beatpath graph is a lot more ambiguous now. We don’t really know how good they are. |
21 |
43.3(1/15 – 3/15) |
22 |
 |
(Lost to NYG) The loss to the Giants doesn’t hurt their standings, but then again, their standings are pretty low. |
23 |
34.2(3/19 – 9/19) |
23 |
 |
(Lost to CHI) Detroit is another team that might be making other teams look better than they really are. |
24 |
30.0(4/20 – 12/20) |
24 |
 |
(Lost to NE) The Jets go to Buffalo, only three slots away in the power rankings. |
22 |
25.0(1/18 – 10/18) |
25 |
 |
(Lost to SD) Tennessee goes to Miami next. They rise in the rankings, mostly because so many other bad teams look worse. |
30 |
25.0(1/18 – 10/18) |
26 |
 |
(Lost to NO) Green Bay goes to Detroit, only three slots away! |
25 |
17.6(0/17 – 11/17) |
27 |
 |
(Lost to SEA) Arizona has got to be better than this. But they are favored to win over St. Louis, who is ranked even lower. |
26 |
21.4(3/21 – 15/21) |
28 |
 |
(Lost to BAL) The Raiders get a bye, which they’ll use to suck less. At what point does it become Shell’s fault? |
27 |
14.3(0/21 – 15/21) |
29 |
 |
(Beat STL) They’re probably better than this, too, but they have a lot of crappy games to make up for. They host Philadelphia – that’ll be an interesting game in terms of judging the quality of both teams. |
28 |
15.9(2/22 – 17/22) |
30 |
 |
(Lost to SF) The Rams go to Arizona, only three slots away. |
29 |
9.5(1/21 – 18/21) |
31 |
 |
(Lost to IND) Houston loses and rises above New Orleans. |
32 |
10.9(0/23 – 18/23) |
32 |
 |
(Beat GB) Yes, we have a 2-0 team ranked dead last. What fun! Why? Because the teams that beat Houston look slightly better (thus penalizing Houston less), while the teams that beat New Orleans look worse, thus penalizing them more. Still, I’m looking forward to the game against Atlanta. |
31 |
10.0(0/25 – 20/25) |
And here are the power rankings as they would look if we only looked at 2006 games. In the early part of the season, the tiebreaker procedure is hit often – when multiple teams are tied, it looks at the average beatpower of the team’s top beatwins, and then the system uses the previous week’s power rankings as a tiebreaker.
| Rank | Team | Notes | Last Week | BeatPower |
1 |
|
(Beat ARI) |
1 |
100.0(6/6 – 0/6) |
2 |
|
(Beat HOU) |
2 |
100.0(3/3 – 0/3) |
3 |
|
(Lost to SEA) |
6 |
80.0(4/5 – 1/5) |
4 |
|
(Beat NYJ) |
4 |
100.0(4/4 – 0/4) |
5 |
|
(Beat PIT) |
5 |
100.0(4/4 – 0/4) |
6 |
|
(Beat PHI) |
22 |
66.7(2/3 – 1/3) |
7 |
|
(Beat STL) |
27 |
60.0(3/5 – 2/5) |
8 |
|
(Beat CLE) |
7 |
100.0(2/2 – 0/2) |
9 |
|
(Beat DET) |
8 |
100.0(2/2 – 0/2) |
10 |
|
(Beat TEN) |
9 |
100.0(2/2 – 0/2) |
11 |
|
(Beat CAR) |
10 |
100.0(2/2 – 0/2) |
12 |
|
(Beat TB) |
12 |
100.0(2/2 – 0/2) |
13 |
|
(Beat OAK) |
13 |
100.0(2/2 – 0/2) |
14 |
|
(Beat GB) |
16 |
100.0(2/2 – 0/2) |
15 |
|
(Lost to JAC) |
3 |
50.0(1/2 – 1/2) |
16 |
|
(Lost to NE) |
14 |
50.0(1/2 – 1/2) |
17 |
|
(Beat WAS) |
18 |
50.0(1/2 – 1/2) |
18 |
|
(Beat MIA) |
25 |
50.0(1/2 – 1/2) |
19 |
|
(Lost to NYG) |
11 |
33.3(1/3 – 2/3) |
20 |
|
(Lost to SF) |
15 |
40.0(2/5 – 3/5) |
21 |
|
(Lost to MIN) |
19 |
0.0(0/2 – 2/2) |
22 |
|
(Lost to ATL) |
23 |
0.0(0/2 – 2/2) |
23 |
|
(Lost to CIN) |
26 |
0.0(0/2 – 2/2) |
24 |
|
(Lost to CHI) |
29 |
0.0(0/2 – 2/2) |
25 |
|
(Lost to NO) |
30 |
0.0(0/2 – 2/2) |
26 |
|
(Lost to BAL) |
32 |
0.0(0/2 – 2/2) |
27 |
|
(Lost to DAL) |
17 |
0.0(0/3 – 3/3) |
28 |
|
(Beat KC) |
20 |
20.0(1/5 – 4/5) |
29 |
|
(Lost to SD) |
28 |
0.0(0/3 – 3/3) |
30 |
|
(Lost to IND) |
31 |
0.0(0/3 – 3/3) |
31 |
|
(Lost to BUF) |
24 |
0.0(0/4 – 4/4) |
32 |
|
(Lost to DEN) |
21 |
0.0(0/6 – 6/6) |