We’re ready for this week’s power rankings – these are the rankings that are based off of the 2006 games only.

To review – a team is ranked ahead of all teams it has a beatpath to. A team has a beatwin (a direct beatpath) over another team if it has beaten them and isn’t contradicted by a beatloop. So these are the power rankings based off of only wins, losses, and who beats who. This current ordering “retroactively predicts” the matches of the first four weeks, with a record of 56-4.

Here’s the beatpath graph the rankings are based off of:

And here are the power rankings. You can make your picks by noting who is ranked ahead of who. By the way, the “Last Week” column refers to the ranking of this version of power rankings, not last week’s official power rankings, which were in a different order.

Rank	Team	Notes	Last Week	BeatPower
1		(Beat DET) Yep, St. Louis is ranked #1. Yes, we all know they’re not that good – but they beat Denver, and Denver has two quality wins. So Denver is propping up St. Louis. If St. Louis is as bad as we think, it will be very easy for them to eventually fall off the mountain – when you’re at the top, you have very long beatpaths, and you only need to lose to one of the many teams under you to form a beatloop. Their one loss to San Francisco has already been shown to be a fluke, and they’re favored over Green Bay.	2	100.0 (19/19 – 0/19)
2		(Bye) The Broncos beat the Patriots, and since the Patriots then beat Cincinnati, that makes Denver’s win seem even stronger. You won’t get that acknowledgment from Pats’ fans, though – they’ll just say that the Broncos own the Patriots and wave it off, as if it is some sort of asterisk. But a win is a win – Denver’s got one of the strongest placements in the graph based off of their two wins. If Kansas City keeps improving, Denver will look stronger still. Denver is clearly favored over Baltimore.	8	94.1 (16/17 – 1/17)
3		(Beat SEA) Chicago was barely favored over Seattle in last week’s rankings, and just beat them by the tightest of margins. Oh wait. They destroyed them. Chicago remains near the top of the rankings. Chicago is clearly favored over Buffalo.	3	100.0 (14/14 – 0/14)
4		(Beat NYJ) The Colts fall a few slots because the opponents they’ve beaten don’t look as strong now. But sheesh, they’re playing Tennessee. The Colts are the pick.	1	100.0 (16/16 – 0/16)
5		(Lost to CHI) Seattle isn’t hurt too badly by their loss to Chicago, and now they have a bye week.	4	90.0 (9/10 – 1/10)
6		(Beat CIN) New England upset Cincinnati and it helps their ranking. They’re favored over Miami.	11	88.2 (15/17 – 2/17)
7		(Bye) The Giants look slightly stronger due to their beatpaths (through Philadelphia) looking slightly stronger. They don’t get hurt too badly by their losses to Indianapolis and Seattle. They’re picked to win over Washington.	13	70.0 (7/10 – 3/10)
8		(Lost to IND) There’s quite an interesting NYJ=>BUF=>MIN=>WAS beatpath that is propping up the Jets right now – if Washington is as good as it seems, then expect this beatpath to be obliterated relatively soon. They’re picked to win over Jackonville. More on this below.	16	66.7 (8/12 – 4/12)
9		(Beat SD) People are so up on the Chargers and the Ravens. Before they played each other, they had both only beaten crappy or slumping teams. How is this an indication of quality? San Diego looks very similar to last year – completely inconsistent. Until they really prove themselves, I still think they’re a paper tiger, and Baltimore shouldn’t get a lot of respect for beating them. Baltimore should lose to the Broncos.	10	100.0 (5/5 – 0/5)
10		(Beat MIN) Buffalo helped their rankings quite a bit by beating Minnesota, although, like we mentioned at the jets, that BUF=>MIN=>WAS beatpath looks mightly rickety. We’ll see. Buffalo should lose to Chicago.	21	58.3 (7/12 – 5/12)
11		(Lost to NE) The Bengals seem to have a junior grade version of the same disease the Chargers have. Able to stomp on mediocre teams, but disappearing into a puff of smoke against quality opponents. Frustrating to see all that potential not quite realized. Cincinnati has a bye.	7	70.0 (7/10 – 3/10)
12		(Beat ARI) Atlanta isn’t hurt by their loss to New Orleans anymore, since Atlanta beat Carolina, and Carolina beat New Orleans. Atlanta has a bye.	14	80.0 (3/5 – 0/5)
13		(Lost to WAS) Jacksonville falls and loses their beatpath to Dallas, thanks to the loss to Washington. They’re playing at home against the Jets. This is one of those games where I’d be really tempted to contradict the beatpaths, honestly. The Jets seem propped up by that BUF=>MIN=>WAS beatpath, and Jacksonville still seems pretty strong. The official pick is for the Jets to beat Jacksonville, and that’s what I’ll be scoring against, but… you know.	6	66.7 (3/6 – 1/6)
14		(Lost to CAR) The Saints play Tampa Bay in New Orleans. This should be a really interesting game in terms of judging where the Saints really are. They were riding emotion before, but now that’s over… and they’re playing a team without their starting quarterback. The Saints are picked to win.	5	83.3 (4/6 – 0/6)
15		(Lost to BUF) Was Minnesota’s loss to Buffalo a fluke? Time will tell. Either way, they’re picked to win over Detroit.	9	46.2 (6/13 – 7/13)
16		(Beat GB) Philadelphia hosts Dallas! Philadelphia is picked to win. It’s a pretty clear pick – right now the only win that counts for Dallas is the one over Tennessee, which is worse that Philadelphia’s opponents.	19	60.0 (6/10 – 4/10)
17		(Lost to BAL) They beat Oakland and Tennessee! Why are people so high on this silly little team? Still, they’re picked to beat Pittsburgh, and if they win, everyone will declare that San Diego is sooo great, and it still won’t be true, because Pittsburgh has been so bad.	12	66.7 (2/3 – 1/3)
18		(Lost to PHI) Don’t look now – Green Bay has been climbing in the rankings a bit. Look for the graph to be all kinds of weird if they beat St. Louis (they should lose to St. Louis, though).	20	14.3 (1/7 – 6/7)
19		(Beat TEN) Washington’s win over Jacksonville obliterated the DAL=>WAS win, so Dallas doesn’t have a lot of data right now, and beating Tennessee sure doesn’t help that much. That’s like feeling like a stud for getting a kiss from your mom. They should lose to Philadelphia.	15	66.7 (1/3 – 0/3)
20		(Lost to ATL) It’s still hard to get a reading on Arizona – they’ve lost to teams that all currently look pretty good. They host Kansas City, and are picked to win, in the tightest match of the week – Arizona and KC are right next to each other in the rankings.	17	20.0 (1/5 – 4/5)
21		(Beat SF) Speaking of whom… while Kansas City is picked to lose, this is another one where I’d be tempted to overrule the pick. The rankings are so close, plus, there are all the quarterback problems in Arizona, while KC’s Huard appears to be playing very well. Still though, Arizona is the official pick.	25	20.0 (1/5 – 4/5)
22		(Bye) If Pittsburgh is just in a slump, then if they come around they should handle San Diego. If they don’t handle San Diego, then Pittsburgh is still not a very good team this year. San Diego can’t have it both ways!	18	25.0 (2/8 – 6/8)
23		(Beat OAK) The Browns travel to Carolina… as I’ve said before, home field advantage can be good for 3-4 ranking slots in the power rankings, so I’d be tempted to pick Carolina for the win here. But the official pick is for the Browns.	24	14.3 (1/7 – 6/7)
24		(Beat JAC) MIN=>WAS is making Washington suffer, and their loss to Dallas keeps them from getting credit for beating Jacksonville. Still, if they beat the Giants, it should help their case a lot. Right now they’re picked to lose, though.	28	30.8 (3/13 – 8/13)
25		(Beat NO) Carolina’s looking better, but if they are, it won’t be reflected in the graphs immediately – they’re picked to lose against Cleveland, but even if they win, it won’t help that much.	23	18.2 (1/11 – 8/11)
26		(Lost to CLE) Oakland at San Francisco! There should be some comedy there. I’m surprised Oakland is favored, but they are.	22	0.0 (0/8 – 8/8)
27		(Lost to STL) Detroit should lose at Minnesota. They’re showing flashes of potential though, aren’t they?	27	0.0 (0/8 – 8/8)
28		(Beat MIA) Yay Gary Kubiak! I missed the footage of him looking away during the last play – I would have liked to have seen that. Houston has a bye.	31	14.3 (2/14 – 12/14)
29		(Bye) Tampa Bay should lose at New Orleans.	29	0.0 (0/11 – 11/11)
30		(Lost to KC) San Francisco hosts Oakland, Oakland is picked to win.	26	0.0 (0/12 – 12/12)
31		(Lost to HOU) Miami travels to New England. They actually won last time, but it was that crazy meaningless game where Flutie drop-kicked that field goal. Look for New England to get “revenge”.	30	5.9 (1/17 – 16/17)
32		(Lost to DAL) Tennessee goes to Indianapolis. Oy.	32	0.0 (0/20 – 20/20)