2006 Week 5 Power Rankings

Below are the power rankings for after Week 5′s games.

First, to review, here is the beatpath graph:

2006-5-Nfl-Fluke-Clean

And now, the power rankings. These power rankings are 71-3 at retrodicting all the games in the season so far. This essentially disproves what I said last week, that 56-4 was the best possible power rankings record – 57-3 was actually possible. SF=>STL and WAS=>JAC are currently seen as flukes. The only operative loop is ATL=>CAR=>NO=>ATL , and the system is currently choosing CAR=>NO as the one to contradict.

As for predictions, the system was 10-4 last week, which was actually kind of bad. We’re 45-29 so far this year, or tied for 13th in King Kaufman’s Panel O’ Experts.

Rank Team Notes Last Week BeatPower

1

(Beat TEN) Indianapolis’ beatwin over Jacksonville looks stronger this week, thanks to Jacksonville rising in the rankings, so it pushes Indianapolis to the top of the rankings.

4

100.0

(19/19 – 0/19)

2

(Beat BUF) It was just Buffalo that they beat. And that win will look less impressive if Minnesota ever manages to beatloop their loss to Buffalo, which I’m convinced was flukey even though the system doesn’t yet say so. But, their win over Seattle will continue to hold them up if Seattle can rack up some more quality wins. Chicago rises mostly because Seattle looks slightly better. Chicago visits Arizona next and is picked to win. Would be a hell of a story if Leinart makes it interesting, though!

3

100.0

(18/18 – 0/18)

3

(Beat GB) If St. Louis had lost this week, a long beatloop created by the Giants would have removed their Denver beatwin. Oh well. Next week, they host Seattle and are picked to win!

1

100.0

(22/22 – 0/22)

4

(Beat BAL) Actually, I don’t think Denver is looking all that great. Their defense is good, but also lucky in how their quality has surfaced at just the right times. I’ve always thought “bend but don’t break” was one step away from breaking. Anyway, St. Louis and Denver aren’t worse this week, it’s just that Indianapolis and Chicago strengthened their own standings. They host Oakland next and are picked to win.

2

95.2

(20/21 – 1/21)

5

(Beat MIA) This is still a pretty darn good team, but it also still gets too much respect. Way too many rankings systems are ranking them ahead of the Broncos. It’s because of the same kind of mystique granted to the Giants and San Diego. Mystique leads to wealthy bookies.

6

89.5

(17/19 – 2/19)

6

(Beat NYJ) Jacksonville was actually supposed to lose to the Jets last week, one of the two matches where I said I was tempted to pick the other way. But the win over the Jets was valuable – it allows them to develop an alternate beatpath over Washington, which declares their earlier loss to Washington to be a fluke. Jacksonville may fall again, though, because the alternate beatpath is that shaky-looking BUF=>MIN=>WAS path.

13

93.3

(14/15 – 1/15)

7

(Bye) Seattle floats around. They visit St. Louis and are picked to lose. If I were making my own picks, I’d honestly probably still stick with St. Louis, because they’ve always been tough at home – they had some quality home wins last year, too.

5

92.3

(12/13 – 1/13)

8

(Beat WAS)Don’t forget that the Giants beat the Eagles. They visit Atlanta next – a good test, but the Giants are still picked to win.

7

76.9

(10/13 – 3/13)

9

(Bye) Cincinnati is coming off a bye. They visit Tampa Bay and are picked to win.

11

72.7

(8/11 – 3/11)

10

(Beat DAL) Philadelphia finally starts to rise in the rankings. They visit New Orleans next – last week, Philadelphia would have been picked to lose, but their climb in the rankings means that Philadelphia will be the pick.

16

69.2

(9/13 – 4/13)

11

(Lost to DEN) Denver knocks Baltimore out of the top ten. Baltimore is picked to win next week when they host Carolina, though.

9

77.8

(7/9 – 2/9)

12

(Lost to JAC) That NYJ=>BUF=>MIN beatpath is pretty crunched up, held up by Minnesota. The Jets host Miami and are picked to win.

8

68.8

(11/16 – 5/16)

13

(Lost to CHI) Buffalo is still hard to get a handle on. It’s like they occasionally find their sea legs but then stumble all over the place again. Buffalo is picked to win in Detroit.

10

58.8

(10/17 – 7/17)

14

(Beat DET) Minnesota doesn’t get rewarded much for beating Detroit.

15

52.9

(9/17 – 8/17)

15

(Beat ARI) A lot of people picked wrong on beating Arizona. They were ranked pretty closely in the power rankings last week. They go to Pittsburgh next week and are favored to win. This is another interesting game – if they win, people will probably anoint Kansas City as being really powerful when they shouldn’t – Pittsburgh is just really bad right now.

21

42.9

(3/7 – 4/7)

16

(Beat TB) New Orleans’ conquests look slightly weaker this week, so they actually slide a couple of notches. They host Philadelphia next, and are picked to lose.

14

85.7

(5/7 – 0/7)

17

(Bye) Other teams strengthened their standings, so Atlanta is pushed down on the bye. They host the Giants, who are picked to win.

12

83.3

(4/6 – 0/6)

18

(Beat PIT) Remember San Diego was ranked low last week but still favored over the lowlier Steelers. They won, as expected. No big reward, though – their loss to Baltimore hurts since Baltimore is no longer undefeated. They’re picked to win at San Francisco.

17

57.1

(4/7 – 3/7)

19

(Lost to PHI) Dallas holds steady after their expected loss to Philadelphia. They’re picked to win next week as they host Houston.

19

40.0

(4/10 – 6/10)

20

(Lost to KC) Arizona holds steady as well. They host Chicago and are picked to lose.

20

20.0

(2/10 – 8/10)

21

(Lost to NYG) Washington appears slightly stronger, mostly because the people that beat them also look slightly stronger. They’re picked to win over visiting Tennessee.

24

18.8

(3/16 – 13/16)

22

(Beat CLE) Will Carolina break out? Next week will be interesting when they visit Baltimore – Carolina is picked to lose, though.

25

28.6

(3/14 – 9/14)

23

(Lost to STL) Green Bay came close, but couldn’t get over the hump. Too bad, it would have made for a really cool graph.

18

12.5

(1/8 – 7/8)

24

(Lost to SD) So when does the Steelers’ mystique wear off? I think they still deserve it – they’re going to upset (from a beatpath perspective) a team one of these weeks. They’re hosting Kansas City next and are actually picked to lose. Maybe this will be the upset. I’d still pick Kansas City, though.

22

20.0

(2/10 – 8/10)

25

(Beat OAK) San Francisco gets a slight boost from beating an awful team. They host San Diego next, and are picked to lose.

30

7.7

(1/13 – 12/13)

26

(Lost to CAR) Cleveland slips slightly on the loss.

23

7.1

(1/14 – 13/14)

27

(Bye) Houston improves by not playing. :) They visit Dallas next week – Dallas is picked to win.

28

12.5

(2/16 – 14/16)

28

(Lost to NO) Another team that appears due for a climb – they host Cincinnati, which is a great opportunity for them. But Cincinnati is picked to win.

29

0.0

(0/13 – 13/13)

29

(Lost to MIN) Detroit stays close to home near the bottom of the league. They’re showing flashes of potential, though – but in losses. They host Buffalo, who is picked to defeat them.

27

0.0

(0/14 – 14/14)

30

(Lost to NE) Wasn’t Miami supposed to be better than this? They’re picked to lose at the Jets.

31

5.0

(1/20 – 19/20)

31

(Lost to IND) Even while watching the scoreboard, I still couldn’t see any way that Indianapolis would lose that game. Indianapolis did the same thing all year last year. They go to Washington next and are picked to lose.

32

0.0

(0/20 – 20/20)

32

(Lost to SF) Last week might have finally been a wake-up call for this team. Don’t know if that will be enough for their next game, though. They visit Denver next and are picked to lose.

26

0.0

(0/22 – 22/22)

2 Responses to 2006 Week 5 Power Rankings

  1. RJ says:

    Just a question with beatflukes. Say a team wins twice over another team, but played so poorly and inconsistant that the team it beat developed an alternate beatpath. My question is, does that alternate beatpath cancel both loses or just one?

  2. ThunderThumbs says:

    It depends on the situation. Beatfluke probably wouldn’t come into play in that situation – it would just create a beatloop and remove one of the wins, so one of the losses would probably remain.

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