Time for Week 6′s Power Rankings. We have some interesting shifts this week – teams behaved differently than they had so far this season, which led to some contradictions, some movement in the rankings, a poor record for last week’s predictions (6-7), and some cool changes in the graph. Elo was one better last week, successfully picking Seattle over St. Louis.

So the power rankings are 51-36 so far in terms of predicting outcomes. We’re tied for last in King Kaufman’s Panel O’ Experts, tied with… uh, King Kaufman himself. Still, it’s not bad, as this season has been significant in that there’s been much more reason to believe that several teams are “underperforming” (Pittsburgh) or “outperforming” (St. Louis) themselves – something a beatpath graph won’t pick up on.

After the power rankings are reordered, the system still sees DET=>BUF and TEN=WAS as being true upsets this week – all others are accounted for. The current power rankings are 79-8 for the season in terms of “retrodictions”. It currently ignores:

• Week 1: ATL=>CAR
• Week 2: SF=>STL
• Week 3: MIA=>TEN
• Week 4: BUF=>MIN, CAR=>NO, WAS=>JAC
• Week 5: (none)
• Week 6: DET=>BUF, TEN=>WAS

79-8 isn’t the best possible record, because the system is currently ignoring two outcomes apiece from the following beatloops: ATL=>CAR=>NO=>ATL, BUF=>MIN=>DET=>BUF, and WAS=>HOU=>MIA=>TEN=>WAS.

SF=>STL is the only beatfluke this week.

Rank	Team	Notes	Last Week	BeatPower
1		(Beat ARI) A win is a win. That said, beating Arizona didn’t help them very much – what helped was Seattle beating St. Louis, giving Chicago extra support. That support will collapse if St. Louis’ win over Denver ever gets beatlooped away. Chicago has a bye.	2	100.0 (28/28 – 0/28)
2		(Beat STL) I felt so complicated watching that game. I’m in Portland, so Seattle is supposed to be my team and I suppose they’ve been worming into my heart the last couple of seasons. But St. Louis is so much fun to watch. Plus, I wanted St. Louis to win just because of the power rankings. But I wanted Seattle to win because that means more interesting changes in the beatpath graph. Oh well. That was great listening to the announcers freak out about Tory Holt, though! Seattle hosts Minnesota, picked to win.	7	96.2 (25/26 – 1/26)
3		(Bye) Indianapolis looks slightly stronger due to the Giants win, even though Chicago and Seattle overtook them. They host Washington and are picked to win.	1	100.0 (21/21 – 0/21)
4		(Beat ATL) The Giants have less pushing them down now, since Seattle rose. And their victory over Atlanta pushes them up a bit. It’s kind of surprising to me that they’re so high, but the graph shows they’ve had quality opponents. At this point it’s a clear pick to win when they go to Dallas. If they lose in Dallas, it’ll contradict some success they’ve already had.	8	85.0 (17/20 – 3/20)
5		(Lost to SEA)Poor St. Louis. Their defense looked pretty pathetic on that final Seattle drive. They have a bye.	3	90.0 (18/20 – 2/20)
6		(Beat OAK) I really don’t like what’s happening in Denver. The teams says they have faith in Plummer, but the playcalling says otherwise. It doesn’t seem like there’s a lot of offensive mistakes or that Bell is running badly. I just don’t get it being so conservative. I almost wonder if they know something that the public doesn’t, like that Plummer is getting over an injury or something. Denver’s picked to win in Cleveland by a score of 13-3.	4	83.3 (15/18 – 3/18)
7		(Bye) Minnesota beat Carolina, remember? That victory looks a lot more valuable now. Plus, a beatloop let them shed that awful loss to Buffalo. They travel to Seattle next for a real test – they’re picked to lose.	14	88.2 (14/17 – 1/17)
8		(Beat PHI) A legitimizing win over the Eagles. Although there still isn’t reason to believe the Eagles are all that impressive yet. New Orleans has a bye.	16	94.1 (15/17 – 0/17)
9		(Beat BAL) Baltimore has some nice beatpath segments still – that and Minnesota’s better standing helps Carolina rise significantly. Carolina is picked to win when they go to Cincinnati.	22	81.2 (12/16 – 2/16)
10		(Bye) Jacksonville slips during the bye week because of the changing graph. They go to Houston and are picked to win, which probably won’t help their ranking much.	6	83.3 (9/12 – 1/12)
11		(Bye) Cincinnati’s weakening position in the graph doesn’t help New England much. New England travels to Buffalo and is picked to win, which won’t help their ranking much, either.	5	73.3 (11/15 – 4/15)
12		(Lost to CAR) Baltimore isn’t hurt too much by their loss to Carolina, thanks to Carolina’s huge rise. Baltimore has a bye week.	11	64.7 (11/17 – 6/17)
13		(Lost to NYG) Atlanta actually rises on the loss, thanks to Tampa Bay’s defeat of Cincinnati. Cincinnati has an opportunity to beatloop that away when they host Carolina this week, though, so Atlanta may fall again. They might lose that segment anyway if they lose to Pittsburgh this week, who they are hosting. But right now, even though Pittsburgh looks like it might be finished underperforming, Atlanta is picked to beat Pittsburgh.	17	66.7 (9/15 – 4/15)
14		(Lost to NO) Philadelphia visits Tampa Bay, who is ranked only two slots below. A tough one to pick because of home field advantage. But Philadelphia is the pick.	10	58.3 (7/12 – 5/12)
15		(Beat SF) San Diego beat San Francisco. Big deal. That said, if Pittsburgh really does start improving, San Diego will start to get pushed up the rankings. San Diego visits Kansas City this week, and are picked to win – and again, a victory over Kansas City won’t mean anything all that impressive at this point. I’ve been accused of bias against San Diego, and I don’t actually hate them all that much – it’s just that for the last two years, I’ve had to deal with seeing them at the very top of various power rankings systems, ahead of other teams with better rankings, and it’s just dumb. At no point in the last two years has San Diego proven that they belong in the league’s elite.	18	50.0 (7/14 – 7/14)
16		(Beat CIN) A quality win enables Tampa Bay to rise significantly. They have another opportunity to increase their standing this week by hosting Philadelphia. They’re currently picked to lose, though.	28	42.1 (8/19 – 11/19)
17		(Beat MIA) Miami’s so bad that the Jets get penalized for beating them. No, actually it’s that Buffalo lost their beatpath to Minnesota, so there’s less propping the Jets up now. The Jets host Detroit this week and are picked to win.	12	30.0 (3/10 – 7/10)
18		(Beat HOU) Dallas beats Houston, yawn. Dallas hosts the Giants next and are picked to lose. It appears to be a pretty clear pick, but that just means that if Dallas wins, it could make next week’s graph have some pretty interesting changes.	19	30.0 (2/10 – 6/10)
19		(Lost to TEN) Washington’s loss to Tennessee is still considered an upset and it was immediately beatlooped, so they’re not hurt by the loss. In addition, the other teams that have beaten Washington look slightly better now. Washington has a great opportunity to completely confuse the league by traveling to Indianapolis. They’re picked to lose, though.	21	25.0 (0/10 – 5/10)
20		(Lost to TB) Cincinnati falls significantly and are picked to lose when hosting Carolina, but they have a good opportunity to right themselves here.	9	35.0 (7/20 – 13/20)
21		(Bye) Son of a gun, Green Bay is actually favored to win in Miami.	23	12.5 (1/8 – 7/8)
22		(Lost to DET) The BUF=>MIN=>DET=>BUF beatloop hurts Buffalo significantly. They host New England next and are picked to lose.	13	18.2 (1/11 – 8/11)
23		(Lost to DAL) TEN=>WAS enables Houston to shed their beatloss to Washington, which gives them a little more room to rise. However, they’re hosting Jacksonville this week and are picked to lose.	27	15.0 (0/10 – 7/10)
24		(Beat BUF) Detroit manages to shed its beatloss to Minnesota, and rises a few slots. They travel to New York to face the Jets and are picked to lose.	29	10.0 (0/10 – 8/10)
25		(Beat KC) Cincinnati’s loss pushes Pittsburgh down more than their KC victory raises them up. However, if they’re truly better now, it could really create some interesting changes in the graphs in weeks ahead. They travel to Atlanta and are picked to lose.	24	23.8 (5/21 – 16/21)
26		(Bye) The Browns host Denver and are picked to lose.	26	6.7 (1/15 – 14/15)
27		(Lost to PIT) Kansas City collapses both on the field and in the rankings. They host San Diego and are picked to lose.	15	15.0 (3/20 – 17/20)
28		(Lost to CHI) Ugh. What can you say about these guys? They’re potentially a very good team. The travel to Oakland next and are picked to win.	20	10.0 (2/20 – 18/20)
29		(Beat WAS) Tennessee’s beatloop gives them a little room to rise. They have a bye next.	31	7.9 (0/19 – 16/19)
30		(Lost to SD) San Francisco has a bye.	25	4.8 (1/21 – 20/21)
31		(Lost to NYJ) Miami hosts Green Bay and is picked to lose.	30	6.8 (0/22 – 19/22)
32		(Lost to DEN) Oakland hosts Arizona and is picked to lose.	32	0.0 (0/22 – 22/22)