The picks were 7-6 this week, but believe it or not, that was a spectacular week, tied with Mike Golic for the best record of the week in King Kaufman’s Panel O’ Experts. Beatpaths is 58-42 overall, or tied for 12th, making up some ground from last week, when we were tied for last.
MIN=>SEA UPSET
OAK=>ARI UPSET
GB=>MIA
NYG=>DAL
KC=>SD UPSET
CIN=>CAR UPSET
TB=>PHI UPSET
NE=>BUF
NYJ=>DET
HOU=>JAC UPSET
ATL=>PIT
IND=>WAS
DEN=>CLE
The beatpath graph is identical to what it was before MNF. Here it is again for review:
Also, the power rankings look fairly stable this week. Look how small the shifts are from team to team.
| Rank | Team | Notes | Last Week | BeatPower |
1 |
 |
(Bye) Chicago holds steady on the bye. They’re picked over visiting San Francisco. |
1 |
100.0(28/28 – 0/28) |
2 |
 |
(Beat SEA) Minnesota was already ranked fairly highly last week, so this wasn’t as much of an upset as people thought. They’ve had one fluke loss to Buffalo that they’ve already overcome, and their other loss was to Chicago. They host New England this coming Monday, and are picked to win. |
7 |
96.4(27/28 – 1/28) |
3 |
 |
(Lost to MIN) Seattle still has quality beatwins, which is keeping them high in the rankings. This MIN=>SEA=>STL=>DEN=>NE is one of the more crammed-together beatpath segments we’ve seen, in my opinion. Seattle travels to Kansas City and is favored to win. Remember that Beatpaths doesn’t take injuries into account, but Seattle is the official pick. |
2 |
92.6(25/27 – 2/27) |
4 |
 |
(Beat WAS) Indianapolis gets leapfrogged a bit, but still remains high in the rankings. They travel to Denver and are picked to win. Again, this is one of those cases where home field advantage might come into play, as testing has shown that flipping a pick when the host is within 2-3 rankings leads to a better pick record. Denver is only two back at #6. I’d personally pick Denver. But Indianapolis is the official pick. |
3 |
100.0(17/17 – 0/17) |
5 |
 |
(Bye) St. Louis hold steady on the bye, and travel to San Diego, where they are favored to win. St. Louis would lose their beatwin over Denver if they lost. |
5 |
87.5(21/24 – 3/24) |
6 |
 |
(Beat CLE) This week’s games have the chance of highly affecting Denver’s placement in the rankings. Other upsets could lead to their beatwins over Baltimore and New England being beatlooped away. Denver hosts Indianapolis and is picked to lose. |
6 |
83.3(20/24 – 4/24) |
7 |
 |
(Beat DAL) The Giants beat Dallas as expected, but get leapfrogged by some other teams that have higher quality beatwins. (Dallas currently isn’t looking like a very high quality beatwin.) They host Tampa Bay next, and are picked to win. |
4 |
77.8(14/18 – 4/18) |
8 |
 |
(Bye) The Saints hold steady on the bye, and host Baltimore. The Saints are picked to win. |
8 |
92.9(12/14 – 0/14) |
9 |
 |
(Lost to CIN) Carolina entered a beatloop with TB and CIN, and they hold steady in the rankings, but there’s more room for them to fall now. They host Dallas next, and are picked to win. |
9 |
81.6(14/19 – 2/19) |
10 |
 |
(Beat BUF) The Patriots have a great opportunity to create a very interesting NE=>MIN=>SEA=>STL=>DEN=>NE beatloop if they can manage to beat Minnesota. But they are currently picked to lose. |
11 |
70.6(12/17 – 5/17) |
11 |
 |
(Bye) Baltimore travels to New Orleans and is picked to lose. |
12 |
68.4(13/19 – 6/19) |
12 |
 |
(Beat PIT) Atlanta travels to Cincinnati and is picked to win. But again, this is a case where Atlanta is ranked only two slots ahead of the home team. In this case, even though I’d pick Denver over Indianapolis, I’d probably still pick Atlanta over Cincinnati, just for my own sense of the teams. But the official pick is still Atlanta (and Indianapolis). |
13 |
68.4(12/19 – 5/19) |
13 |
 |
(Lost to HOU) Wow, did they ever look bad. They travel to Philadelphia and are picked to win, though. But they’re ranked three slots ahead of the home team. Jacksonville is the official pick, but I’d probably pick Philadelphia. |
10 |
75.0(6/10 – 1/10) |
14 |
 |
(Beat CAR) Cincinnati rises significantly from beating Carolina and shedding their beatloss to Tampa Bay. They host Atlanta and are picked to lose. |
20 |
53.3(7/15 – 6/15) |
15 |
 |
(Beat PHI) Tampa Bay beat Philadelphia, but lost their beatwin to Cincinnati, so they about hold steady. Tampa Bay travels to the Giants next, and are picked to lose. |
16 |
45.2(9/21 – 11/21) |
16 |
 |
(Lost to TB) Philadelphia falls slightly due to the loss to another team of similar-seeming quality. They host Jacksonville next and are picked to lose. |
14 |
40.0(8/20 – 12/20) |
17 |
 |
(Lost to KC) San Diego never looked that great to begin with (rant rant rant), so they don’t tumble too far from their Kansas City loss. They host St. Louis next, and are picked to lose. |
15 |
33.3(3/12 – 7/12) |
18 |
 |
(Beat DET) Other changes in the graph push the Jets down a bit, but they’re still helped by their win over Detroit. They travel to Cleveland next, and are picked to win – however, they are only three slots ahead of the home team. I’d still pick the Jets though, and they’re also the official pick. |
17 |
33.3(4/12 – 8/12) |
19 |
 |
(Lost to IND) Washington loses as expected, and holds steady. They have a bye. |
19 |
25.0(0/10 – 5/10) |
20 |
 |
(Beat SD) Kansas City beats San Diego and rises in the rankings. They host Seattle next and are picked to lose. More interesting beatloop possibilities if they pull off the upset, though… |
27 |
27.3(2/11 – 7/11) |
21 |
 |
(Lost to DEN) Cleveland rises slightly on the loss, due to other graph factors – losing to Denver doesn’t hurt a lot unless you’re already a good team. Cleveland hosts the Jets and are picked to lose. |
26 |
9.1(1/11 – 10/11) |
22 |
 |
(Beat MIA) Green Bay was actually favored to beat Miami, so they about hold steady after the win. They host Arizona next, and are picked to win. Two Green Bay picks in a row! |
21 |
18.8(3/16 – 13/16) |
23 |
 |
(Lost to ATL) Pittsburgh lost to Atlanta, as expected. Next, they travel to Oakland and are picked to win. Again, though, the home team is only three slots back. |
25 |
14.3(1/14 – 11/14) |
24 |
 |
(Lost to OAK) Kansas City’s win enables Arizona to rise slightly, despite their loss to Oakland. They next travel to Green Bay and are picked to lose. |
28 |
7.7(0/13 – 11/13) |
25 |
 |
(Lost to NYG) Dallas looks significantly worse than last year. Remember that Dallas was much better than their record indicated last year, as expressed by their placement in the beatpath graph and rankings. This year they actually seem worse than everyone wants still to give them credit for. They travel to Carolina, an interesting rematch of a key game from late last year, and are picked to lose. |
18 |
14.7(1/17 – 13/17) |
26 |
 |
(Beat ARI) Oakland hosts Pittsburgh and is picked to lose. |
32 |
7.1(0/14 – 12/14) |
27 |
 |
(Beat JAC) Houston is giving themselves room to rise in future weeks, but Philadelphia’s loss pushes them down a bit. Houston travels to Tennessee and is actually favored to win. |
23 |
13.9(0/18 – 13/18) |
28 |
 |
(Lost to NYJ) Detroit falls on the loss to the Jets. They have a bye. |
24 |
10.5(2/19 – 17/19) |
29 |
 |
(Lost to NE) Buffalos falls on the loss to New England. They have a bye. |
22 |
5.3(1/19 – 18/19) |
30 |
 |
(Bye) San Francisco travels to Chicago, and is picked to lose in one of the clearest picks of the year. |
30 |
5.3(0/19 – 17/19) |
31 |
 |
(Bye) Tennessee hosts Houston, and is picked to lose. |
29 |
7.1(0/21 – 18/21) |
32 |
 |
(Lost to GB) Miami falls since Oakland decided they weren’t so crappy anymore. Miami has a bye. |
31 |
6.2(0/24 – 21/24) |
Of course you wouldn’t want pick Denver because you’re a fan, right?
Loving teh rankings. Definitely interesting stuff.
Nope, that was entirely separate from me being a Denver fa… oh, who am I kidding.
Wow. According to this method, there are a lot of games this week between teams ranked pretty close together. IND-DEN, BAL-NO, JAC-PHI, ATL-CIN, NYJ-CLE, ARI-GB, and PIT-OAK are all between teams within 3 spots of each other. And that’s not counting the NE-MIN from the jumble at the top.
Yeah, it’s pretty cool! Although I think Week 2 had even more close games… or the games were even closer in rankings. Should be a fun weekend!
You note that there’s a small interval between teams; FO (which uses a stat system which is pretty sophisticated about yards/average etc. but doesn’t use wins/losses) is getting similar results with their DVOA this year. If I wuz smarter I’d link it, but I think my brian has shrunk. Damn supplements!
I know I gave you crap for ragging on the Chargers so much, but it looks like you were right–every week they seem less impressive, beatpaths or otherwise.
Good luck on the weekend. How many straight losses to Indy does Denver have? I think their D is better and Indy has slipped, but still…
I think Denver has only one straight loss to Indy! Denver kept on stomping them in meaningless regular-season games.
It’s interesting that all three of the borderline picks were won by the “official” pick.
You’re right about Indy vs. Denver. I guess playoff wins just obscured my memory…
Could you perhaps include a listing of the current beatloops? It’s fun to look at the crazy 6 team beatloops to see where the transitive property of football fails…