Here’s the Week 8 Power Rankings. We were 6-8 this week, which appeared to be pretty average compared to the Panel O’ Experts. Beatpaths is at 64-50, or 13th, ahead of four others.
Here again is Week 8′s beatpaths graph, for review:
And below are the power rankings:
| Rank | Team | Notes | Last Week | BeatPower |
1 |
 |
(Beat DEN) Quality wins are the tiebreaker, and New England’s win over Minnesota was quality enough that it pushes up the quality of the teams ahead of it. Since Indianapolis beat a team that beat New England, Indianapolis shoots to the top of the rankings. Indianapolis visits New England next, and is favored to win – however, New England is the home team only three slots back – picking a home team that is within three slots back of a visiting team sometimes leads to more accurate picks… the official pick is Indianapolis, though. |
4 |
100.0(29/29 – 0/29) |
2 |
 |
(Lost to IND) Denver isn’t hurt badly by losing to Indianapolis, but improves in the rankings due to New England looking so much stronger. Denver is in a pretty weak position right now, though, because their next most quality beatwin after New England is Baltimore. While Denver’s game in Pittsburgh won’t matter much in next week’s beatpath graph, Denver could sink significantly if New England beats Indianapolis. Denver is picked to beat Pittsburgh |
6 |
96.4(27/28 – 1/28) |
3 |
 |
(Beat SF) Chicago’s beatwins looks slightly better than New England’s. Chicago hosts Miami and is picked to win. Why can’t Chicago play better teams? |
1 |
100.0(24/24 – 0/24) |
4 |
 |
(Beat MIN) If New England beats visiting Indianapolis, it creates a beatloop right at the top of the graph. Rock Scissors Paper indeed. |
10 |
92.3(24/26 – 2/26) |
5 |
 |
(Lost to NE) Minnesota still has quality beatwins keeping it at near top of the rankings. Minnesota visits San Francisco and is picked to win. |
2 |
85.2(23/27 – 4/27) |
6 |
 |
(Lost to KC) Kansas City’s win over Seattle was immediately classified as a beatfluke, based off of other game outcomes so far this season. It could be that Kansas City ends up consistent enough that the game will re-emerge in the graph and become relevant again, but for now there is just too much other evidence to count it. Seattle remains high in the rankings. Seattle hosts Oakland next and is picked to win, although Seattle and Oakland have a rich and bitter history of exciting games against each other. I miss Seattle being in the AFC West. |
3 |
80.8(21/26 – 5/26) |
7 |
 |
(Beat NO) Baltimore sneaks up the rankings by defeating New Orleans. Baltimore hosts Cincinnati next, and is picked to win. |
11 |
79.5(15/22 – 2/22) |
8 |
 |
(Beat TB) The Giants defeat Tampa Bay, a redundant beatpath since NYG=>ATL=>TB already exists. The Giants host Houston next and are picked to win. |
7 |
76.0(19/25 – 6/25) |
9 |
 |
(Beat CIN) Atlanta keeps methodically moving up the rankings. I don’t believe they were ever this high last year. Atlanta visits Detroit next and is picked to win. |
12 |
66.7(15/24 – 7/24) |
10 |
 |
(Beat PHI) A real back and forth battle for Jacksonville lately. What an interesting team. They host Tennessee next, and are picked to win. |
13 |
92.9(13/14 – 1/14) |
11 |
 |
(Lost to BAL) Seeing New Orleans lose to Baltimore was interesting, because I’m used to seeing both of these teams as being pretty bad. It was easy to view New Orleans as being re-exposed as a mediocre team, losing to another mediocre team. But according to beatpaths, they’re both very good teams, near the top ten, and virtually swapped places in the rankings. New Orleans visits Tampa Bay next and is picked to win. |
8 |
86.1(13/18 – 0/18) |
12 |
 |
(Beat STL) San Diego is finally starting to show a bit of consistency, looking slightly better than a mediocre team. They haven’t yet managed to make up for their loss to Baltimore, though. They host Cleveland next and are picked to win. |
17 |
78.1(12/16 – 3/16) |
13 |
 |
(Lost to DAL) Maybe Dallas has Carolina’s number? It was a surprise when Dallas beat Carolina at the end of last season, too. Dallas has a few too many other losses to make up for, but the loss made Carolina lose its beatwin over Baltimore, so Carolina slips in the rankings. Carolina has a bye. |
9 |
61.4(10/22 – 5/22) |
14 |
 |
(Lost to ATL) Cincinnati isn’t hurt too badly by the loss to Atlanta, so they hold steady. Cincinnati visits Baltimore and is picked to lose. |
14 |
60.9(13/23 – 8/23) |
15 |
 |
(Lost to JAC) Philadelphia holds steady in the rankings, and has a bye. |
16 |
47.5(7/20 – 8/20) |
16 |
 |
(Lost to SD) St. Louis takes a tumble! Due to many factors, St. Louis’ earlier win over Denver is finally considered a beatfluke, so St. Louis is robbed of its rickety support structure at the top of the graph. St. Louis hosts Kansas City next, and is picked to win. |
5 |
39.3(5/14 – 8/14) |
17 |
 |
(Beat NYJ) I didn’t pay much attention to this game, but beatpaths considered Cleveland’s win over the Jets as an upset. Cleveland rises on the win – they visit San Diego next and are picked to lose. |
21 |
42.9(9/21 – 12/21) |
18 |
 |
(Beat CAR) Dallas sheds their beatloss to Philadelphia by beating Carolina, and rises in the rankings. Dallas visits Washington next and is picked to win. |
25 |
34.4(3/16 – 8/16) |
19 |
 |
(Beat SEA) Kansas City’s win over Seattle is currently seen as a beatfluke, but it could re-emerge later and help them shed a beatloss. Kansas City visits St. Louis next and is picked to lose. |
20 |
23.1(2/13 – 9/13) |
20 |
 |
(Lost to CLE) The Jets suffer a beatloss to Cleveland and have a bye next week. |
18 |
30.0(6/20 – 14/20) |
21 |
 |
(Lost to NYG) Tampa Bay doesn’t currently have any beatwins, which isn’t helping it in the rankings. They host New Orleans next and are picked to lose. |
15 |
17.9(0/14 – 9/14) |
22 |
 |
(Beat ARI) Green Bay was expected to beat Arizona, so they don’t rise in the rankings. They visit Buffalo next and are – again – picked to win. Will sports columnists get overexcited and buzz about Green Bay being on a streak and looking strong if they win? That could be funny, since they travel to Minnesota the following week. |
22 |
23.5(4/17 – 13/17) |
23 |
 |
(Beat PIT) Well, the victory counts. And they have a beatpath over Pittsburgh for the time being. If Pittsburgh starts to win, it might help Oakland, or the beatwin might just get obliterated in beatloops if Oakland doesn’t improve. Oakland visits Seattle next and is picked to lose. |
26 |
16.7(2/18 – 14/18) |
24 |
 |
(Lost to CHI) San Francisco is playing Chicago and Minnesota back to back. They host Minnesota and are picked to lose. San Francisco does rise slightly, mostly because their previous beatloss teams all look slightly better this week. |
30 |
8.8(0/17 – 14/17) |
25 |
 |
(Lost to OAK) Yes, that beatloss to Oakland is real – it’s because Pittsburgh has lost so many other games, too. Yes, Cleveland has a beatpath to Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh hosts Denver next and is picked to lose. If they win, it still won’t do much to the graph immediately – Pittsburgh will have to string together a few upsets to start making it show up in the graph. |
23 |
8.3(1/18 – 16/18) |
26 |
 |
(Beat HOU) Tennessee is showing signs of life! And for now, their win over Washington counts as a beatwin. Tennessee visits Jacksonville next and is picked to lose. Interestingly, if that happens, it appears they’ll lose the beatwin over Washington because of Washington’s earlier victory over Jacksonville. |
31 |
12.5(2/20 – 17/20) |
27 |
 |
(Bye) Washington sinks on the bye. Why? Tennessee beat Houston, shortening an earlier beatloop that involved Washington. Washington’s victory over Jacksonville is still seen as a fluke, and Tennessee regains credit for defeating Washington, so Washington sinks further. Washington hosts Dallas next and is picked to lose. |
19 |
5.3(1/19 – 18/19) |
28 |
 |
(Lost to GB) Arizona loses as expected to Green Bay, and blessedly has a bye. |
24 |
5.3(0/19 – 17/19) |
29 |
 |
(Bye) Detroit comes off the bye and hosts Atlanta and is picked to lose. |
28 |
9.5(2/21 – 19/21) |
30 |
 |
(Bye) Buffalo comes off the bye and hosts Green Bay and is picked to lose. |
29 |
4.8(1/21 – 20/21) |
31 |
 |
(Lost to TEN) Houston is showing signs of life every once in a while, but still has a long way to go. They visit the Giants and are picked to lose. |
27 |
2.4(0/21 – 20/21) |
32 |
 |
(Bye) Miami comes off the bye and visits Chicago, and is picked to lose. |
32 |
4.0(0/25 – 23/25) |
Just guessing here based on feel:
CHI’s loss is immediately considered a beatfluke.
MIN’s loss will likewise be beatfluked, but with two beatfluke losses on record, their position near the top of the graph becomes extremely rickety.
WAS’s win over DAL means WAS->JAC is no longer a fluke, and casues some reorganization of that section of the graph.
That’s pretty good – (we’re referring to the conclusion of Week 9′s Sunday games). Chicago and Minnesota are hurt pretty badly, actually – not because their losses count to any degree, but because the support structure underneath both of them got pretty decimated this week.
WAS and DAL have a season split, so those two games are actually now taken out before any beatloop/beatfluke calculations are done.
Right, but won’t the removal of WASDAL relations mean that there’s now a JAC=>TEN=>WAS=>JAC loop which has to be removed, leaving only JAC=>DAL=>TEN, and taking Washington out of that section altogether? That’s what I think happens, but I’m only looking at things locally and not considering other loops that may be involved.
You’ve got most of it – the new graph is up now so you can see.