Here are the latest power rankings. We’re 80-64 for the season, or tied for thirteenth in King Kaufman’s Panel O’ Experts. The vanilla variant was actually one game better last week, successfully picking the SF/DET game, since it rewarded San Francisco’s rise in the rankings a bit sooner than the beatflukes variant did.
First, the graph, for review:
And, the rankings. The rankings are interesting because they are picking up on a subtle but real power struggle in the center of the rankings, all centered around the GB=>MIN nexus.
| Rank | Team | Notes | Last Week | BeatPower |
1 |
 |
(Beat BUF) It amuses me how everyone argues different right answers about whether it’s good that Indianpolis pulled out a close win over an inferior opponent. But, only wins and losses matter here. Indianapolis visits Dallas and is picked to win. I don’t understand why so many people are picking Dallas, when Indianapolis won in Denver earlier this season. Denver’s clearly a better team than Dallas. |
1 |
100.0(30/30 – 0/30) |
2 |
 |
(Beat OAK) Denver always seems to be ranked much lower in other power ranking systems, which is part of why I developed beatpaths – I think Denver gets disrespected. Denver has beaten Baltimore, New England, and Kansas City so far this year, all of whom are ranked highly. I think Denver must just be better at playing matchups than most other teams. Denver hosts San Diego and is picked to win, although for the first time in a long while, San Diego is not very far behind in the rankings. |
2 |
96.7(29/30 – 1/30) |
3 |
 |
(Beat NYG) Chicago helps themselves with a quality win over the Giants, and climb two slots in the rankings. They visit the Jets next and are picked to win. |
5 |
100.0(22/22 – 0/22) |
4 |
 |
(Beat TEN) Baltimore holds steady aside from Chicago’s leapfrog move. They host Atlanta next and are picked to win. |
3 |
92.3(24/26 – 2/26) |
5 |
 |
(Beat CIN) The Chargers are finally showing a bit of consistency in their game results, even if they can’t hold up that consistency within an actual game. They visit Denver and are picked to lose, although defeating them will have a cool effect on the graph through creating a DEN=>BAL=>SD beatloop. This is a great chance for San Diego to mess up the top of the rankings. |
7 |
83.3(19/24 – 3/24) |
6 |
 |
(Lost to MIA) Kansas City’s loss to Miami is currently considered a fluke, and their other beatwins look like much higher quality now, so KC rises significantly. It’s the Seattle win that is really keeping them up. Kansas City hosts Oakland next, and is picked to win. |
14 |
88.5(22/26 – 2/26) |
7 |
 |
(Beat STL) Seattle sweeps St. Louis, which is a relief for them. The visit San Francisco next and are picked to win, although it’s a closer call than people might expect. |
8 |
84.0(21/25 – 4/25) |
8 |
 |
(Lost to CHI) The Giants don’t get hurt much by their loss to Chicago, but they did cost themselves an opportunity to rise further. Key losses by other highly-ranked teams enable them to rise a couple of slots. They visit Jacksonville next and are picked to win, although you never know with Jeckyll and Hyde (Jeckyllville?) |
10 |
80.0(20/25 – 5/25) |
9 |
 |
(Lost to PIT)New Orleans falls slightly, not so much because of their currently-seen-as-fluke loss to Pittsburgh, but because other teams are starting to gather up more quality beatwins. They host Cincinnati next, and are picked to win. |
4 |
87.5(21/24 – 3/24) |
10 |
 |
(Beat WAS) The Eagles continue their rise. They host Tennessee next and are picked to win. |
13 |
70.4(19/27 – 8/27) |
11 |
 |
(Beat DET) Zoom! Commenters have picked up on one of the quirks of the beatfluke variant – a couple of subtle changes in ecology, and a team can zoom up the rankings. San Francisco is actually ranked ahead of New England, and it’s because SF’s two best beatwins look slightly stronger than NE’s two best beatwins – helped in part by GB=>MIN. SF hosts Seattle and is picked to lose. |
25 |
63.0(17/27 – 10/27) |
12 |
 |
(Lost to NYJ) It wasn’t the loss to the Jets that hurt New England, actually. It’s the fact that none of their wins really look all that impressive anymore. Cincinnati? That’s their best one. Their game at Green Bay actually looks pretty closely matched. New England is the pick, but they’re only ranked two slots ahead, and Green Bay has home field advantage – remember that picking the home team within three power ranking slots can actually lead to slightly more accurate results. |
6 |
88.2(15/17 – 2/17) |
13 |
 |
(Lost to SEA) St. Louis is helped by GB=>MIN more than they are hurt by losing to Seattle. St. Louis visit Carolina next, and is picked to win. |
20 |
57.7(15/26 – 11/26) |
14 |
 |
(Beat MIN) Green Bay had some hidden momentum, much in the same way San Francisco did. They’ve built up some quiet wins and are much more of a midrange team than a bad team now. They host New England, and are picked to lose, but they do have home field advantage. |
27 |
53.8(14/26 – 12/26) |
15 |
 |
(Lost to GB) Minnesota holds steady. They visit Miami and are picked to win. |
15 |
48.1(13/27 – 14/27) |
16 |
 |
(Lost to PHI) Washington loses, but HOU=>JAC gives them a boost. Washington visits Tampa Bay next, and is picked to win. |
21 |
42.6(11/27 – 15/27) |
17 |
 |
(Beat ATL) Cleveland climbs slightly. They host Pittsburgh next and are picked to win. |
19 |
64.7(10/17 – 5/17) |
18 |
 |
(Beat JAC) Houston sweeps Jacksonville, which will be difficult for Jacksonville to overcome in the graph. They host Buffalo next and are picked to win. |
26 |
38.9(10/27 – 16/27) |
19 |
 |
(Lost to HOU) Jacksonville “wants” to be higher, and Houston “wants” to be lower, which is why they’ve reached equilibrium here, with Jacksonville immediately behind Houston. Jacksonville hosts the Giants next, and are picked to lose. |
11 |
35.2(9/27 – 17/27) |
20 |
 |
(Beat NE) The Jets’ victory over New England is considered fluke at this point, so they’re not helped by it. But it could be a factor in later weeks, by canceling out NE’s other victory over the Jets. They host Chicago next, and are picked to lose. |
17 |
29.6(8/27 – 19/27) |
21 |
 |
(Beat ARI) Dallas beats Arizona and basically treads water. They host Indianapolis and are picked to lose. I’ll be really surprised if this is competitive. |
23 |
34.4(4/16 – 9/16) |
22 |
 |
(Lost to SF) Detroit falls slightly on the loss to San Francisco. They visit Arizona next and are picked to win. |
18 |
25.9(7/27 – 20/27) |
23 |
 |
(Lost to CLE) Last week we said the dumb loss to Detroit might hurt Atlanta later, and it did since the loss to Cleveland reinforced it. Atlanta visits Baltimore next and is picked to lose. |
9 |
21.4(5/28 – 21/28) |
24 |
 |
(Lost to SD) The Bengals keep sinking. They visit New Orleans next and are picked to lose again. |
16 |
46.2(3/13 – 4/13) |
25 |
 |
(Lost to DEN) Oakland holds steady with their loss to Denver. Oakland visits Kansas City next and is picked to lose. |
24 |
25.0(4/16 – 12/16) |
26 |
 |
(Beat TB) Carolina gets a beatwin back with their victory over Tampa Bay, but it doesn’t help them much, yet. They host St. Louis next and are picked to lose. |
29 |
12.5(1/20 – 16/20) |
27 |
 |
(Lost to IND) Buffalo joins a long list of teams who almost beat Indianpolis. They visit Houston next and are picked to lose. |
22 |
8.7(2/23 – 21/23) |
28 |
 |
(Beat NO) The vanilla variant has Pittsburgh rising a little on their win, but not a lot. Here they hold steady, since Pittsburgh hasn’t yet had enough other success to view their NO win as other than a fluke. Pittsburgh visits Cleveland next and is picked to lose. |
28 |
7.7(2/26 – 24/26) |
29 |
 |
(Lost to CAR) The ecology worked against Tampa Bay this weekend – they don’t have any beatwins anymore and they’re out of reasons to consider them a good team, at least temporarily. They host Washington and are picked to lose. |
12 |
2.0(0/25 – 24/25) |
30 |
 |
(Lost to DAL) Arizona treads water (deep in the ocean) after losing to Dallas. They host Detroit next and are picked to lose. |
31 |
0.0(0/24 – 24/24) |
31 |
 |
(Beat KC) Miami’s win over Kansas City is currently seen as a fluke, so Miami isn’t helped by it. They host Minnesota next and are picked to lose. |
32 |
3.7(1/27 – 26/27) |
32 |
 |
(Lost to BAL) Tennessee seems to be on the verge of winning games, but they’re not there yet. They visit Philadelphia next and are picked to lose. |
30 |
0.0(0/28 – 28/28) |
Re: Cowboys over Indianapolis:
I think people are just saying that Indy HAS to lose a game this season, so what game is it going to be?
Remaining Indy schedule:
Nov 19 @Dallas
Nov 26 Philadelphia
Dec 3 @Tennessee
Dec 10 @Jacksonville
Dec 18 Cincinnati
Dec 24 @Houston
Dec 31 Miami
With Cincy falling off the map, the best shots are either Dallas or Philly, with Jacksonville (if the good team shows up) or Miami (if they follow last year’s script) also possibilities.
People think that with Indy 2 games up in the AFC, they just HAVE to lose one game. Why not Dallas?
It’s not a compelling argument. Then again, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of compelling arguments against the Colts winning any of their remaining games; but there does seem to be a compelling argument that they do lose one…
Top two lose and all of the bottom seven win? Can’t wait to see how this week rewires the graph.
Whew. Traumatic week – 4-11 so far.
One interesting thing is that the graph all of a sudden looks a lot more like last year’s graph than this year’s.
I was just reviewing some of the games, and it makes my head hurt thinking of what loops or flukes are going to be showing up now. Guess I’ll have to look for the new graph later this week. It appears that the GB->MIN path might be going away for now though.
I thought these rankings were a fun little exercise, not to be taken seriously.
Or maybe you opinion isn’t really based in the ratings.
Either way, there’s not many accurate judgments of teams on this site. See: the Cowboys, and what you’d said about the Chargers earlier in the year.