Here are the latest power rankings – we’re 84-76 for the season so far, or tied for dead last in King Kaufman’s Panel O’ Experts. Yep, that ain’t too good, although I should point out that this is the same system I’ve backtested over the last three years and the pick record is usually better than this. Again though, remember that the point of the system is to illustrate the pecking order of the league, based off of all the wins and losses for the season – it does not take things like injuries or partial-season momentum into account.

First, the graph, for review:

And now, the rankings – I’m going to explain each team’s placement in the beatpath graph a little more fully this week, because we’ve had several interesting shifts. Keep in mind that these shifts also happen for the vanilla variant – none of these major moves are due to the beatflukes phenomenon alone. I can’t stress what a major paradigm shift this was – nothing like this happened all of last year. Just look at slots #3-#6. One other interesting note – the 6th place NFC team is ranked #17.

Rank	Team	Notes	Last Week	BeatPower
1		(Lost to DAL) The loss to Dallas meant that Indianapolis lost two beatwins this week, to the Giants and to Jacksonville, since both teams had beaten Dallas. Indy’s place atop the graph isn’t really threatened, though, since they still have quality beatwins over Denver and New England. Indianapolis hosts Philadelphia next, and is picked to win.	1	96.3 (25/27 – 0/27)
2		(Lost to SD) Denver’s loss makes them lose credit for their beatwin over Baltimore, which makes their support structure a little more shaky. On the other hand, Pittsburgh’s rise makes Denver’s beatwin over them look a little more impressive. It’s New England that is propping Denver up, though. Denver visits Kansas City next and is picked to win (although I can’t remember the last time Denver has won in Kansas City… at least it’s not December).	2	92.6 (24/27 – 1/27)
3		(Beat GB) New England was low last week because their beatwins didn’t look all that impressive. This week they basically have the same beatwins, but they look so much more impressive now. Why? Because Cincinnati rocketed up the rankings. Cincinnati props up New England, and so New England is now ranked #3. Since Cincinnati now looks like a much better team, New England should get more credit for beating them. New England hosts Chicago next and is picked to win.	12	92.0 (23/25 – 2/25)
4		(Beat NO) One of the mysteries of this week’s rankings. Why did Cincinnati rise so much? The short answer is that defeating New Orleans was enough to change the perception of Cincinnati from a talented bad team, to a good team that might be over its missteps. Let’s take a closer look. Defeating New Orleans didn’t actually make a big difference in terms of beatloops – it enabled them to shed beatlosses to Atlanta and Tampa Bay, but they had already shed those beatlosses through defeating Cleveland and Carolina, respectively. The difference was that Cincinnati developed some alternate beatpaths to Tampa Bay and Atlanta, and that was enough to define TB=>CIN and ATL=>CIN as beatflukes. This in turn gave Cincinnati beatwins over Cleveland, New Orleans, and Atlanta. And yet, while that all helps Cincinnati’s support structure, you’ll see that none of that really matters this week, because it’s Pittsburgh that is propping up Cincinnati. And it’s Pittsburgh that enabled Cincinnati to develop those alternate beatpaths. Cincinnati visits Cleveland next and is picked to win.	24	83.9 (22/28 – 3/28)
5		(Beat NYG) Last week, Jacksonville suffered a beatloss to Houston, because Houston had defeated them twice. But Jacksonville has since developed so many alternate beatpaths to Houston that it was enough to declare both of Houston’s wins as beatflukes. Jacksonville also has a hell of an opportunity to impressively close out their season. The big reason for Jacksonville’s rise, though, is Pittsburgh’s rise. Other factors: Jacksonville’s victory over Philadelphia is no longer considered fluke. WAS=>JAC is now considered fluke. The end result is that the only operative Jacksonville beatloop is DAL=>IND=>JAC=>DAL. Jacksonville visits Buffalo next and is picked to win.	19	95.8 (22/24 – 0/24)
6		(Beat CLE) All right, so what happened with Pittsburgh? Rocketing up from #28. In the comments a couple of weeks ago, I explained that one victory over a quality opponent wouldn’t be enough to make Pittsburgh rocket up. So then a week later, Pittsburgh defeats Cleveland and rockets up. Again, the answer is because the beatpath graph is an ecology – with every team depending on every other team. A few different things had to happen to cause this change. First, Kansas City defeated Oakland, which caused Oakland to lose their beatwin over Pittsburgh. Second, Pittsburgh’s defeat of Cleveland was key because Cleveland had defeated Atlanta, who had defeated Pittsburgh. So what happened? Last week, PIT=>KC and PIT=>NO were both considered fluke victories and were ignored. This week, OAK=>PIT and ATL=>PIT are considered Pittsburgh’s fluke losses. This gives Pittsburgh its beatwin over New Orleans. What else is helping Pittsburgh? MIA=>KC=>SEA looks pretty key. In the most closely-ranked game of the week, Pittsburgh (#6) visits Baltimore (#7) and is picked to win, although Baltimore has home-field advantage.	28	79.6 (21/27 – 5/27)
7		(Beat ATL) Yes, Baltimore is now ranked behind Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, even though it is three and four games ahead of them, respectively. This is mostly just a scheduling quirk, though – Baltimore hasn’t played either of its games against Pittsburgh yet, and they have another Cincinnati game coming up, too. Baltimore lost credit for their beatwin over San Diego, but also shed their beatloss to Denver. Other changes – CAR=>BAL is no longer considered fluke, so Baltimore also lost their beatwin over Cincinnati. Baltimore hosts Pittsburgh and is picked to lose.	4	87.5 (15/20 – 0/20)
8		(Beat DEN) San Diego is currently being kept from two quality beatwins (CIN and PIT) due to their loss to Kansas City. But if they can split the season series with Kansas City, then SD will have that much stronger a position in the graph. San Diego does manage to shed their beatloss to Baltimore by defeating Denver, but that’ll come back if Denver splits the season series with them in a few weeks. They slip a few notches due to other teams leapfrogging them, and also because San Francisco’s fall makes them look like a lower quality beatwin. San Diego hosts Oakland and is picked to win.	5	86.8 (14/19 – 0/19)
9		(Lost to CIN) New Orleans loses a couple of beatwins this week thanks to the difference in beatflukes, and suffers under CIN=>NO and PIT=>NO. However, those two teams are ranked so highly that it doesn’t hurt New Orleans, so they hold steady. New Orleans visits Atlanta and is picked to win.	9	65.2 (14/23 – 7/23)
10		(Beat NYJ) Chicago falls significantly, and it’s mostly because the AFC looks so strong. The loss to Miami is keeping Chicago from having credit for their victories over GB, BUF, and NYJ, but the main reason for their position in the rankings is because none of their quality NFC beatwins have managed to develop any beatpaths to quality AFC opponents. The only AFC teams Chicago has a beatpath to are Oakland and Houston. Chicago visits New England next and is picked to lose.	3	91.2 (14/17 – 0/17)
11		(Beat IND) Since Tennessee defeated Philadelphia, Dallas sheds its beatloss to Philadelphia (since Dallas beat Tennessee). PHI=>DAL is also considered fluke, so Dallas regains its beatpath to Tennessee. On top of that, Dallas’ win over Indianapolis allowed them to shed the beatlosses to Jacksonville and the Giants. Dallas doesn’t have a lot of quality beatwins yet, but their lack of beatlosses helps them rise significantly. Dallas hosts Tampa Bay next, and is picked to win.	21	90.0 (12/15 – 0/15)
12		(Beat MIN) Miami rockets up the graph! Why? It looks like MIA=>KC=>SEA is key – what’s up with that? The number one factor for Miami last week was that HOU=>JAC existed as a beatpath. This is no longer true, which means a couple of things – Kansas City no longer has an alternate beatpath to Miami, and neither does Chicago. Since MIA=>CHI is not considered a fluke, Miami sheds its beatlosses to the Jets and Buffalo. GB=>MIA is now considered a fluke, as well. And since KC beat Oakland, a KC=>OAK=>PIT=>KC beatloops was created, which obliterated an earlier KC=>SEA=>OAK=>PIT=>MIA=>KC beatloop. The end result is that HOU=>MIA and GB=>MIA replaced MIA=>CHI and MIA=>KC as beatflukes, and Miami doesn’t look like such a bad team anymore. Miami visits Detroit and is picked to win.	31	70.0 (16/25 – 6/25)
13		(Beat OAK) Kansas City wins as expected, but their loss to Miami isn’t considered a fluke anymore, so they fall a few notches. Kansas City hosts Denver and is picked to lose.	6	65.9 (14/22 – 7/22)
14		(Lost to SF) MIN=>SEA and SF=>SEA are both considered beatflukes, so Seattle isn’t in any beatloops this week, but the insertion of NE=>CIN=>PIT=>MIA in the DEN=>KC link means that Seattle gets pushed down significantly. Seattle hosts Green Bay and is picked to win.	7	59.1 (13/22 – 9/22)
15		(Lost to JAC) The Giants are another victim of the AFC this week – it’s as if the ecology is realizing that the AFC only looked weak for a while from whomping on itself, while this week there developed significant reason to believe that the AFC is far superior to the NFC this year. The Giants visit Tennessee and are picked to win.	8	50.0 (10/21 – 10/21)
16		(Lost to PIT) Cleveland isn’t significantly hurt by their loss to Pittsburgh. The AFC North just keeps looking tougher and tougher. Cleveland hosts Cincinnati next and is picked to lose.	17	56.5 (12/23 – 9/23)
17		(Beat STL) Carolina finally picks up a beatwin that gives them some quality beatpaths. It’s enough to cancel out all of Carolina’s beatfluke losses, and also gain them a beatfluke of their own: MIN=>CAR. Carolina visits Washington and is picked to win.	26	78.1 (10/16 – 1/16)
18		(Lost to CHI) The broken HOU=>JAC link means that the Jets are forced as far down in the graph anymore. They have a little more room to maneuver, and rise slightly after the loss to Chicago. The Jets host Houston and are picked to win.	20	50.0 (10/22 – 10/22)
19		(Lost to BAL) ARI=>DET creates an ARI=>DET=>ATL=>ARI beatloop, and Atlanta finds an alternate beatpath to Detroit, so DET=>ATL is now considered a beatfluke. Atlanta looks slightly better despite the loss to Baltimore. Atlanta hosts New Orleans and are picked to lose.	23	45.8 (9/24 – 11/24)
20		(Beat PHI) This had to happen sometime – Tennessee has been showing signs of life for weeks. Tennessee hosts the Giants and is picked to lose.	32	38.1 (8/21 – 13/21)
21		(Lost to CAR) St. Louis keeps falling – this time it’s not so much because of losing to Carolina, since Carolina doesn’t looks so bad anymore. It’s more because the busted HOU=>JAC link gives them less support underneath. St. Louis hosts San Francisco and is picked to win.	13	32.5 (6/20 – 13/20)
22		(Beat WAS) Tampa Bay redevelops their beatpath to Philadelphia, which helps them rise slightly. Tampa Bay visits Dallas next, and is picked to lose.	29	33.3 (8/24 – 16/24)
23		(Beat HOU) Buffalo loses their beatpath to Miami and gains a beatpath to Houston, which doesn’t mean much either way, but the busted HOU=>JAC link means that BUF=>GB is no longer a beatfluke, so Buffalo no longer suffers under their beatloss to Detroit, and is given more upward mobility. Buffalo rises slightly overall. Buffalo hosts Jacksonville next and is picked to lose.	27	20.6 (1/17 – 11/17)
24		(Lost to TEN) Oof. Philadelphia is given less support thanks to the busted HOU=>JAC, but they loss to Tennessee hurt quite a bit. Dallas now has a beatpath to Philadelphia. Philadelphia visits Indianapolis next and is picked to lose.	10	25.0 (7/28 – 21/28)
25		(Lost to KC) Oakland isn’t hurt too badly by the loss to Kansas City. They do appear to have some upward mobility. Oakland visits San Diego and is picked to lose.	25	6.2 (0/16 – 14/16)
26		(Lost to NE) Green Bay is another team that is hurt by the disappearance of HOU=>JAC, as well as Philadelphia’s beatloss to Tennessee. Green Bay visits Seattle and is picked to lose.	14	19.0 (5/29 – 23/29)
27		(Beat SEA) San Francisco is also hurt twice, from HOU=>JAC disappearing, and from Philadelphia’s collapse. As a result, SF=>SEA is considered a beatfluke – however, if SF really is turning into a good team, it should be reflected in the graph soon enough. They do seem to have a pretty tough schedule coming up, though. San Francisco visits St. Louis and is picked to lose.	11	19.0 (4/29 – 22/29)
28		(Lost to MIA) HOU=>JAC’s disappearance hurts another team, as does Philadelphia’s collapse. Minnesota hosts Arizona (in the other “most closely ranked game” of the week) and is picked to win.	15	10.3 (2/29 – 25/29)
29		(Beat DET) Arizona basically treads water, but that victory had to feel good. Arizona visits Minnesota and is picked to lose.	30	7.4 (1/27 – 24/27)
30		(Lost to TB) Another HOU=>JAC situation. Washington has a three-game home stand coming up, though. They have an opportunity to start beatlooping away some of the mess they’re in. Washington hosts Carolina and is picked to lose.	16	3.7 (1/27 – 26/27)
31		(Lost to ARI) Detroit sinks on the loss to lowly Arizona. Detroit hosts Miami next, and is picked to lose.	22	3.6 (0/28 – 26/28)
32		(Lost to BUF) So, how does it happen that two wins over Jacksonville both get beatlooped away? Well, this week, there are actually four three-team beatloops having to do with Houston and Jacksonville. They loop through Tennessee, Dallas, Philadelphia, and the Giants – all teams that Jacksonville has beaten, that have in turn beaten Houston. In addition, there’s a larger beatloop that is new this week: HOU=>JAC=>NYJ=>BUF=>HOU. The larger beatloop wiped out Houston’s second beatwin over Jacksonville, and after all that, after Jacksonville loses credit for defeating all those teams, Jacksonville still had alternate beatpaths to Houston – aside from these two games, Jacksonville has just been a very good team, and Houston has been very bad. So for this week at least, both HOU=>JAC victories are considered beatflukes, and Houston sinks to the bottom. Houston visits the Jets and is picked to lose.	18	0.0 (0/28 – 28/28)