Power Rankings are 103-89 for the season after an 8-8 week. The story of the week appears to be the Giants’ collapse – it made a TEN=>NYG beatpath emerge, which is affecting much of the NFC. Going by who beat who, the graph suggests that the playoffs should look like this:
AFC: IND, NE, BAL, SD (CIN, KC)
NFC: CHI, SEA, NO, DAL (MIN, CAR)
For review, here is the beatpaths graph:
And now, the rankings. This week, we’ll review each team’s beatloop/beatfluke situation.
| Rank | Team | Notes | Last Week | BeatPower |
1 |
 |
(Lost to TEN) Indianapolis has a couple of alternate beatpaths to Tennessee, so they weren’t hurt by the loss, at least not for this week. Indianapolis still doesn’t have credit for their wins over Jacksonville and Philadelphia, but they regain their beatwin over the Giants due to the Giants’ loss to Dallas. |
1 |
96.0(23/25 – 0/25) |
2 |
 |
(Beat DET)New England regains their beatwin over Miami, due to Miami losing some beatfluke advantages after their loss to Jacksonville. New England rises due to their beatwin over Cincinnati looking so much stronger now. |
4 |
88.5(21/26 – 1/26) |
3 |
 |
(Lost to CIN) Baltimore’s earlier win over Cincinnati protected them from a beatloss to Carolina. But, so did Baltimore’s win over Atlanta. So losing to Cincinnati didn’t hurt them at all, other than keeping them from developing a beatwin to Cincinnati. |
3 |
89.5(15/19 – 0/19) |
4 |
 |
(Beat BUF) San Diego loses credit for defeating Cleveland, since Cleveland beat Kansas City this week. It appears it’s Tennessee’s stronger placement in the graph that is keeping San Diego high in the rankings. |
8 |
85.0(14/20 – 0/20) |
5 |
 |
(Beat BAL) A quality win by Cincinnati helps them out. Their losses to Tampa Bay and Atlanta are now seen as flukes, which gives them back their beatwins over Cleveland and New Orleans. In addition, the win over Baltimore busts a beatloop and gives them back their beatwin over Carolina, too. |
14 |
83.3(16/21 – 2/21) |
6 |
 |
(Beat MIN) Chicago has the same immediate beatwin and beatloop relationships they did last week, but their place in the graph just looks weaker from their beatwins looking weaker. Their beatwin over the Giants now looks particularly unimpressive. |
2 |
83.3(12/18 – 0/18) |
7 |
 |
(Lost to CLE) Kansas City isn’t hurt too badly by their loss, because while it keeps them from getting credit from their win over San Diego, they already had that beatlooped away from losses to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. The San Diego beatloop also keeps Cleveland from having a beatwin to Kansas City. |
5 |
83.3(12/18 – 0/18) |
8 |
 |
(Lost to SEA) Yes, Denver was ranked behind Seattle last week. Yes, Denver lost to Seattle, and yes, Denver is now ranked ahead of Seattle. What happened was that other game results shook things up enough that it improved Denver’s standing in the rankings dramatically. In fact, after the Sunday afternoon games but before the SEA@DEN kickoff, I checked the rankings again, and Denver was ranked a few slots ahead of Seattle – Seattle’s win then tightened up the rankings more. to have them ranked one slot behind Denver. It appears that Cleveland’s improved standing in the graph is what helped Denver. Denver doesn’t currently suffer under a Seattle beatloss thanks to a powerhouse DEN=>NE=>CHI=>SEA=>DEN beatloop, but Denver does lose credit for their win over Pittsburgh. |
13 |
75.0(13/24 – 1/24) |
9 |
 |
(Beat DEN) Other teams leapfrogged Seattle this week. Seattle’s victory over Denver does enable them to regain another beatwin over St. Louis. And since GB=>MIN is now considered a beatfluke, Seattle regains their beatwin over Green Bay, while still avoiding the beatloss to Minnesota thanks to the SEA=>DEN=>NE=>MIN=>SEA beatloop. But Seattle’s fall is mostly because their beatwin over the Giants looks so much weaker. |
6 |
81.2(11/16 – 1/16) |
10 |
 |
(Beat SF) Since ATL=>CIN and TB=>CIN are both considered flukes now, New Orleans suffers under a beatloss to Cincinnati, but also regains beatwins to both Atlanta and Tampa Bay. However, other losses to Pittsburgh and Carolina still keep them from having a beatwin over Atlanta. Also, Philadelphia’s win over Carolina makes New Orleans lose credit for their win over Philadelphia. None of this hurts too badly, though, given the fact that Cleveland’s stronger position gives New Orleans a boost. |
11 |
72.2(12/18 – 4/18) |
11 |
 |
(Beat NYG) Dallas gains a split with the Giants, but while they used to be in NYG beatloops with TEN and IND, they are still in those beatloops with PHI and JAC. So they don’t get any advantage from the win, at least not this week. Dallas still needs some more quality wins to rise further in the rankings. |
9 |
73.1(6/13 – 0/13) |
12 |
 |
(Lost to CHI) GB=>MIN is now considered a beatfluke, mostly because of Green Bay’s loss to the Jets. The main subtle changes for Minnesota this week are that they lose credit for their beatwin over Washington, regain credit for their beatwin over Carolina, and shed their beatloss to Miami. That’s actually a slightly stronger position than where they were, but other teams improved more. |
10 |
65.6(6/16 – 1/16) |
13 |
 |
(Beat KC) Cleveland does now suffer under a direct beatloss to Cincinnati, but they also shed their beatloss to San Diego. Their rise is more because of the NYJ=>TEN=>NYG beatpath segment. |
20 |
61.4(11/22 – 6/22) |
14 |
 |
(Beat GB) NYJ=>NE is still considered a beatfluke, but the Jets are getting better. However, the Jets don’t have any different beatpath/beatloop relationships this week – their rise is more because of Tennessee’s rise. |
23 |
56.8(10/22 – 7/22) |
15 |
 |
(Beat MIA) Jacksonville’s win over Miami allows them to shed their second beatloss to Houston once again, through a large JAC=>MIA=>MIN=>WAS=>HOU=>JAC loop. But if the loop shrinks, the second HOU=>JAC beatwin could come back again and throw Jacksonville down the rankings again. |
25 |
57.7(2/13 – 0/13) |
16 |
 |
(Beat IND) TEN=>IND is considered a beatfluke, so that’s not what is helping them here. Tennessee was in a TEN=>NYG=>DAL=>TEN beatloop. Since Dallas beat the Giants, it busted the loop and created a DAL=>TEN=>NYG beatpath segment. Also, HOU=>MIA is no longer considered a beatfluke, so since Tennessee beat Houston, Tennessee no longer suffers under a beatloss to Miami. There doesn’t appear to be anything freakish about the TEN=>NYG beatwin – Tennessee has earned the rise, at least for now. |
28 |
50.0(9/22 – 9/22) |
17 |
 |
(Lost to SD) No new beatloop relationships for Buffalo, just the direct beatloss to San Diego. |
15 |
45.8(2/12 – 3/12) |
18 |
 |
(Lost to PHI) Carolina now suffers under beatlosses to Cincinnati and Minnesota, thanks to Cincinnati’s beatfluke improvements and Seattle’s victory over Denver, which busted apart a MIN=>CAR=>STL segment (through New England). Carolina doesn’t suffer under a beatloss to Philadelphia, thanks to CAR=>TB=>PHI. Carolina also regains credit for its beatwin over St. Louis. Carolina also seems to have good opportunity to bust apart their other beatloops in future weeks, putting New Orleans and Baltimore in danger. Strange team. |
16 |
47.1(5/17 – 6/17) |
19 |
 |
(Lost to JAC) The loss to Jacksonville means that HOU=>MIA and PIT=>MIA are no longer considered flukes. Miami doesn’t suffer a beatloss to Jacksonville, but the loss makes them lose credit for their beatwin over Minnesota. Pittsburgh causes their beatloss to New England to re-emerge. Houston causes them to lose their beatwin over Tennessee. Their lack of beatwins makes them fall in the graph. |
7 |
43.8(0/16 – 2/16) |
20 |
 |
(Beat OAK) Houston doesn’t need the HOU=>JAC link anymore to stay out of the dregs. HOU=>MIA isn’t considered a fluke anymore. JAC=>MIA enables Houston to shed their beatloss to Washington, even as they lose their second beatwin over Jacksonville. And they develop a beatwin to Oakland. |
22 |
39.3(1/14 – 4/14) |
21 |
 |
(Beat TB) PIT=>MIA is no longer considered a beatfluke, which enables Pittsburgh to shed their beatloss to Denver. They also develop their direct beatwin to Tampa Bay. |
30 |
36.7(1/15 – 5/15) |
22 |
 |
(Lost to DAL) The Giants fall significantly. Their split to Dallas means they now suffer under beatlosses to Indianapolis and Tennessee. Their weakness makes Chicago and Seattle not look so hot, either. |
12 |
39.6(8/24 – 13/24) |
23 |
 |
(Lost to ARI) ARI=>STL is currently seen as a beatfluke, but St. Louis has two beatlosses to Carolina and Seattle re-emerge, mainly due to Seattle’s victory over Denver. |
17 |
29.4(3/17 – 10/17) |
24 |
 |
(Lost to HOU) No beatfluke or beatloop changes for Oakland this week, just a new beatloss to Houston. |
24 |
15.4(0/13 – 9/13) |
25 |
 |
(Beat CAR) Philadelphia’s victory over Carolina enables them to shed a direct beatloss to New Orleans. Tampa Bay as well, but their Dallas victory already protected them from that. However, NYG=>PHI hurts a lot more now, due to the Giants’ weakness, so Philadelphia falls. |
19 |
29.2(4/24 – 14/24) |
26 |
 |
(Beat WAS) ATL=>CIN is now seen as a beatfluke, but the beatwins over Atlanta this reintroduces are still warded off by other beatloops with Pittsburgh and Carolina. It’s again the Giants’ weakness that is damaging another team’s placement in the rankings. |
21 |
20.0(2/20 – 14/20) |
27 |
 |
(Lost to NO) No new beatfluke/beatloop relationships for San Francisco this week, just a beatloss to New Orleans. |
26 |
15.0(1/20 – 15/20) |
28 |
 |
(Lost to ATL) Washington sheds a beatloss to Minnesota, and loses credit for a beatwin to Houston. They’re also pushed down by the Giant’s weakness, through Atlanta. |
18 |
17.4(0/23 – 15/23) |
29 |
 |
(Lost to NYJ) GB=>MIN is now considered a beatfluke, which means Green Bay’s direct beatloss to Seattle re-emerges. This doesn’t make a difference in this week’s graph. They also suffer the beatloss to the Jets. |
29 |
10.9(1/23 – 19/23) |
30 |
 |
(Lost to PIT) TB=>CIN is now considered a beatfluke, which means that Tampa Bay’s beatloss to New Orleans re-emerges (as does the beatloss to Cincinnati). In addition, they suffer the beatloss to Pittsburgh. |
27 |
4.5(0/22 – 20/22) |
31 |
 |
(Beat STL) ARI=>STL is considered a beatfluke, so there is no change in their beatpath relationships. |
31 |
8.3(0/24 – 20/24) |
32 |
 |
(Lost to NE) No change in Detroit’s beatpath relationships, aside from a beatloss to New England. |
32 |
10.0(0/25 – 20/25) |
Just one small error I noticed in the San Diego notes:
“San Diego loses credit for defeating Cleveland, since Kansas City beat them this week” is wrong. It should read: “San Diego loses credit for defeating Cleveland, since Cleveland beat Kansas City this week.”
Despite this, your website is a great read every week. It is nice to see power rankings that take a more analytical approach, rather than simply gut feelings. Keep up the good work.
ahh… fixed. And thanks!
Would you explain why NE (with one beatloss) is ranked above BAL? I tried to figure this out by reading your descriptions but couldn’t–sorry. I understand that Beatpower is used to break ties between teams with the same # of beatlosses, but couldn’t figure out NE over BAL. Thanks!
Sure, it’s because of Cincinnati’s rise. New England has a beatpath to Cincinnati, and Baltimore doesn’t. The tiebreaker is “strength of beatwins”, and New Englands strongest beatwins have more teams under them than Baltimore’s strongest beatwins.
Baltimore was considered for #1, unlike New England, but lost the tiebreaker to Indianapolis. That then freed up New England, and Baltimore lost the tiebreaker to them as well.
What’s the beat relationship between SD and DEN? No link shows up in the graph. Since SD beat DEN, I presume that means that there is a beatloop SD=>DEN=>*SD.
DEN=>BAL=>SD=>DEN.
If Denver beats San Diego this week (stop laughing), DEN=>BAL=>SD will re-emerge. If San Diego beats Denver, there will just be a SD=>DEN beatwin.
Thanks for the wonderful explanation. That’s perfectly clear and makes sense. I won’t laugh because I would love a Denver victory over SD, although I think it is rather unlikely
.