As the season winds up, it’s interesting to look at how the year will end up if games end up as projected. This is a bit of a silly exercise because the power rankings aren’t very accurate in the predictive sense. But it does show how strength of schedule can give certain teams an advantage or disadvantage partway through the season.
Beatpaths is saying that as of now, the following teams are the top ranked in each conference (using seeding rules):
AFC: IND, SD, BAL, NE, DEN, CIN
NFC: CHI, NO, SEA, NYG, MIN, ATL
However, using those same rankings and playing through the end of the season, things change a bit. For instance, Cincinnati is projected to lose its next three games. The end of year projections are:
AFC: IND, BAL, SD, NE, DEN, BUF
NFC: NO, CHI, NYG, SEA, ATL, PHI
Denver is actually ranked ahead of New England, but has to take the #5 seed as a wildcard. Minnesota gets screwed by the NFC West – Seattle makes it in as champs even though MIN, DAL, and WAS are ranked ahead. Seattle would be ranked #23 in the power ranking. On the AFC side, JAC, PIT, and CIN get sort of screwed, all being ranked ahead of ATL. But overall, the NFC is ranked higher than they are in Week 14′s Power Rankings.
And, reminding that this ranks teams by season performance and NOT by record, the playoffs would be:
Wildcard round:
San Diego hosts Buffalo and wins (SD then outranks BAL!)
Denver beats New England in New England
The Giants host Philadelphia and win
Atlanta beats Seattle in Seattle
Division round:
Indianapolis hosts Denver and wins
San Diego visits Baltimore and wins
New Orleans hosts Atlanta and wins
Chicago hosts the Giants and wins (CHI then outranks NO!)
Conference round:
Indianapolis hosts San Diego and wins
Chicago visits New Orleans and wins
Super Bowl:
Indianapolis (#1) defeats Chicago (#6)
Final rankings:
IND,SD,DEN,NE,BAL,CHI,NO,NYG,BUF,JAC,PIT,ATL,CIN,PHI,CLE,MIN,NYJ,MIA,KC,DAL,SF,TEN,WAS,SEA,CAR,GB,HOU,STL,TB,OAK,ARI,DET
Of course, this will all change if there are any upsets at all, which of course there will be. (The SF=>SEA upset tonight was already figured in, though.)
You and I are probably the only people alive whose rating systems predict that the Cowboys will miss the playoffs.
So, the order here is determined on final beatpaths ranking, right? Not on actual final records?
I ask because you’ve got NO over CHI to enter the playoffs, and I’d be very surprised if beatpaths predicted the final records to be that way. I wouldn’t be surprised if the power rankings said that–Chicago doesn’t have many impressive wins–but I’d be surprised if the beatpaths actually predicted the records to turn out that way (seing as how Chicago’s remaining schedule includes the 26th, 28th, and 32nd ranked teams).
What’s funny about this site is that I never have reason to keep track of the actual W-L records. I have no idea what beatpaths projects them to be. So you’re right, it’s not based on final records at all. That’s kind of the point of this system, that ordering by W-L records is so dumb since you can’t predict how strong/weak a team’s schedule is going to be before the season happens. That’s what screwed Dallas in 2005. While all year long I’ve been talking about predicting game outcomes, beatpaths isn’t really useful for that and it’s not really the point of the site – to me, it’s more to have a better representation of what teams have actually done well in terms of wins, losses, and who beats who – that question is most relevant at the end of Week 17 when determining playoff seedings. I completely believe this is a better way to determine playoff teams than the NFL’s scheme of W-L records.
And the out and out awfulness that is the NFC continues as New Orleans and Minnesota both lose. I would venture at least that NO’s is considered a fluke, but I’m not sure.
Regardless, the AFC went 3-1 in interconference play yesterday, with the only loss due to the hapless Raiders. Will this make the graph even more AFC-centric?