The rankings were quite stable this week, although there are some interesting NFC shifts. The top half of the graph is almost completely identical to last week’s graph, though.

If the season ended today, the beatpaths playoff seedings would be:

AFC: IND, SD, BAL, NE, DEN, CIN
NFC: NO, CHI, PHI, SF, DAL, SEA

AFC teams ranked ahead of an NFC playoff team: BUF, JAC, PIT, CLE, MIA, NYJ, KC, TEN

My main argument about beatpaths.com is that these playoff seedings are better than the NFL’s. NFL playoff seedings are based off of wins and losses, but there is no way to predict at the beginning of a season how strong or weak a team’s schedule is, so W-L records are a horrible way of determining the seedings. Beatpaths seedings are based off of wins, losses, and who beat who. All the schedule difficulties balance out and this is a better picture of which teams have had better seasons than other teams, based solely off of wins and losses.

This week the seedings map fairly closely. The NFL has SD first in the AFC, but Indianapolis has defeated more impressive teams. In the NFC, they have CHI ahead of NO, but New Orleans has more quality victories. Philadelphia has better victories than Dallas, but the NFL gives Dallas the championship. And San Francisco is more deserving of the playoffs than the Giants.

Now, our tiebreaker is “strength of beatwins”, which may unfairly penalize teams like Chicago – after all, it’s not Chicago’s fault that they had such a pitifully easy schedule. Chicago got matched with the NFC West, and the other NFC division winners ended up pretty lousy, too. But you can see by the graph that the highest Chicago could possibly be ranked in any tiebreaker is #5. The highest New Orleans can be ranked is #10, behind all other AFC playoff teams.

To review, here is this week’s beatpaths graph:

And the rankings:

Rank	Team	Notes	Last Week	BeatPower
1		(Beat CIN) Indianapolis’ victory over Cincinnati reinforces an existing beatpath, and there are no other changes in the graph for them.	1	100.0 (29/29 – 0/29)
2		(Beat KC) San Diego’s victory over Kansas City reinforces an existing beatpath, and there are no other changes in the graph for them.	2	98.3 (29/30 – 0/30)
3		(Beat CLE) Baltimore’s victory over Cleveland reinforces an existing beatpath, and there are no other changes in the graph for them.	3	94.2 (23/26 – 0/26)
4		(Beat ARI) Denver’s victory over Arizona reinforces an existing beatpath, and there are no other changes in the graph for them.	4	91.9 (28/31 – 2/31)
5		(Beat HOU) New England’s victory over Houston reinforces an existing beatpath, and there are no other changes in the graph for them.	5	90.0 (27/30 – 3/30)
6		(Lost to IND) Losing to Indianapolis doesn’t hurt Cincinnati’s ranking, and there are no changes in the graph for them.	6	83.9 (23/28 – 4/28)
7		(Beat MIA) Buffalo’s win over Miami reinforces an existing beatpath – no changes in the graph for them.	7	84.5 (24/29 – 4/29)
8		(Lost to TEN) Tennessee’s win over Jacksonville is currently considered a beatfluke, and there are no other changes in the graph for Jacksonville, so the ranking remains the same.	8	82.1 (23/28 – 5/28)
9		(Beat CAR) Pittsburgh’s win over Carolina reinforces an existing beatpath, and there are no other changes in the graph for Pittsburgh.	9	73.3 (22/30 – 8/30)
10		(Lost to WAS) A very subtle shift in the graph this week enables New Orleans to climb a spot. The loss to Washington is currently considered a beatfluke, so that didn’t affect things. What affected things was Cleveland looking like a slightly stronger team, thus making New Orleans’ beatwins appear of slightly higher quality.	11	69.0 (20/29 – 9/29)
11		(Beat TB) Chicago lost their beatwin over Green Bay this week, and their beatwin over Minnesota looks less powerful, so Chicago slips a notch.	10	71.4 (13/21 – 4/21)
12		(Lost to BAL) Cleveland isn’t hurt by their loss to Baltimore, and their beatwins look slightly stronger, so they rise.	13	63.0 (17/27 – 10/27)
13		(Lost to BUF) GB=>MIA is no longer considered a beatfluke, but that just reinforces their already beatlooped victory over Chicago. It’s their beatwin over Minnesota that doesn’t look as strong anymore, so Miami slips.	12	61.1 (15/27 – 9/27)
14		(Beat NYG) A major rise for Philadelphia – last week there was a NYG=>PHI beatpath, and this week there is a PHI=>SF=>SEA=>NYG beatpath. NYG=>PHI and TB=>PHI are now both considered beatflukes, so Philadelphia also regains credit for their win over Carolina. A loss to Tennessee still keeps them from their beatwin over Dallas.	21	57.7 (14/26 – 10/26)
15		(Beat MIN) The Jets develop a beatpath to Minnesota.	15	53.8 (13/26 – 11/26)
16		(Lost to SD) No change in the graph for Kansas City./s	16	52.0 (13/25 – 12/25)
17		(Beat SEA) San Francisco is now the highest ranked team in the NFC West. This was a huge win. Last week, SF=>SEA, SF=>STL, and SF=>MIN were all considered beatflukes – not anymore. This week, STL=>SF and ARI=>SF are considered beatflukes. A big paradigm shift for this team. San Francisco also sheds their beatloss to Green Bay, and regains their beatwin over Oakland.	30	44.6 (12/28 – 15/28)
18		(Beat JAC) Tennessee’s win over Jacksonville is currently considered a beatfluke – there are no other changes in the graph for them.	18	44.0 (10/25 – 13/25)
19		(Beat ATL) Dallas’ victory over Atlanta gives them an alternate beatpath to Washington, which busts the season split and makes WAS=>DAL a beatfluke. Also, since TB=>PHI is now considered a beatfluke, Dallas regains for their direct beatwin over Tampa Bay.	22	47.7 (9/22 – 10/22)
20		(Lost to SF) SF=>SEA is no longer considered a beatfluke, and there is now a SF=>SEA beatpath. In addition, GB=>MIN is no longer considered a beatfluke, so a MIN=>SEA=>GB=>MIN beatloop reemerges – so Seattle loses credit for their beatwin over Green Bay.	17	39.3 (10/28 – 16/28)
21		(Lost to PHI) NYG=>PHI is now considered a beatfluke. Other than losing their NYG=>PHI beatpath, there are no other graph changes for the Giants.	19	32.8 (9/29 – 19/29)
22		(Lost to DAL) Atlanta suffers a new beatloss to Dallas – no other changes in the graph for Atlanta.	20	27.6 (8/29 – 21/29)
23		(Lost to NYJ) This was a damaging loss for Minnesota. In addition to suffering a beatloss to the Jets, they lose their beatfluke losses to GB and SF – both count now. Since Seattle beat Green Bay, the loss to Green Bay means they lose credit for their beatwin over Seattle.	14	33.3 (8/27 – 17/27)
24		(Lost to PIT) Due to TB=>PHI now being considered a beatfluke, a CAR=>TB=>PHI=>CAR beatloop no longer exists. CAR=>TB is still beatlooped away via WAS, but a direct PHI=>CAR beatpath now exists.	23	19.0 (5/29 – 23/29)
25		(Beat DET) Green Bay’s ranking doesn’t change much, but they have more upward mobility now. GB=>MIN and GB=>MIA are no longer considered beatflukes. As a result, GB sheds beatlosses to CHI and SEA. And since SF shed some of their beatflukes, Green Bay loses credit for defeating SF, but also sheds their STL beatloss. Finally, their beatloss to PHI doesn’t hurt so much anymore.	26	23.8 (2/21 – 13/21)
26		(Beat NO) WAS=>NO is considered a beatfluke – and due to Dallas’ victory over Atlanta, so is WAS=>DAL. (The WAS< =>DAL season split busts the WAS=>DAL=>ATL=>WAS beatloop, so DAL=>ATL=>WAS remains.)	25	17.2 (4/29 – 23/29)
27		(Beat OAK) St. Louis gets no meaningful reward for defeating Oakland. And due to SF’s improvement, last week’s SF=>STL beatfluke disappears, and is replaced with STL=>SF being considered a beatfluke. As a result, a GB=>SF=>STL=>GB beatloop reemerges and STL loses credit for defeating Green Bay.	24	12.5 (3/28 – 24/28)
28		(Lost to NE) No changes in the graph for Houston.	27	11.1 (3/27 – 24/27)
29		(Lost to CHI) TB=>PHI is now considered a beatfluke, and a DAL=>TB direct beatwin reemerges.	28	2.0 (0/25 – 24/25)
30		(Lost to STL) SF’s improvement means a beatloop of ARI=>SF=>OAK=>ARI disappears, so Oakland regains credit for their beatwin over Arizona. But they now suffer a beatloss to St. Louis.	29	6.9 (2/29 – 27/29)
31		(Lost to DEN) ARI=>SF is now considered a beatfluke, so Arizona now suffers a beatloss to Oakland.	31	3.3 (1/30 – 29/30)
32		(Lost to GB) No real changes in the beatpath graph relationships for Detroit. (SF=>DET still exists; it’s just invisible/redundant now.)	32	0.0 (0/30 – 30/30)