Beatpaths

The beatflukes power rankings are actually quite different this week, after only two games. There are a lot less beatflukes, and more beatloops – in other words, more game matchups from the season are mattering in the rankings. Why? It’s one change that has a huge effect on the ecology of the [...]

Here are the beatpaths graphs for the conclusion of the conference championships.
First, the vanilla variant:

And, the beatflukes variant:

When we exclude the Week 17 CAR@NO game, both beatpaths variants have the same picks this week: Indianapolis and New Orleans. Both are just barely favored from being so close in the rankings. Should be a great couple of games.

Rank
Team
Notes
Last Week
BeatPower

1

(Beat BAL)

1

100.0
(30/30 – 0/30)

2

(Lost to NE)

2

96.6
(27/29 – 0/29)

3

(Beat SD) The [...]

I’m on vacation this week, so the graphs and power rankings are slow in coming, but they’re coming!
Both graphs ignore the CAR@NO outcome from Week 17. First is the beatflukes variant:

And also the vanilla variant:

For the rankings, we are ignoring the season-ending CAR@NO game. Rankings are determined using the beatpaths variant, but the vanilla rankings are in parentheses.

Rank
Team
Notes
Last Week
BeatPower

1

(Beat KC) A quality win enables Indianapolis to pull ahead of San Diego. (1)

2

96.6
(27/29 – 0/29)

2

(Bye) San Diego slips on the bye. (2)

1

98.2
(27/28 – 0/28)

3

(Bye) (3) [...]

All the wildcard games turned out as expected – all the different beatpaths variants picked the correct winners for a 4-0 record – a couple of those teams weren’t even considered deserving of playoff berths. For the conclusion of the wildcard games, here is a whole slew of beatpaths graphs.
First, the vanilla (non-fluke) graph [...]

It appears the one clear candidate for a junk game in Week 17 was CAR@NO. Starters were rested, it was a party, the crowd was cheering all the way through even though the home team lost, etc. So here is probably a better representation of the end of the season, by refiguring the [...]

So, you go to the playoffs with the seedings you have, not the ones you wish you had. Here’s how the seedings actually work out:
AFC: SD, BAL, IND, NE, NYJ, KC
NFC: CHI, NO, PHI, SEA, DAL, NYG
For the wildcard round, both the beatfluke and non-beatfluke variant project the same outcomes, although in one case [...]

We’re at the end of the regular season! And we have playoff seedings.
All season long, I’ve been using the beatflukes variant because historically it has proven more accurate in predicting game outcomes. However, the point of this system was never really to predict game outcomes – it’s more just to get a simple [...]

Here are the power rankings for the end of the regular season. Some big shifts due to the crazy game outcomes. First, the graph for review:

And, the rankings. I’ll make note of the non-beatfluke rankings in brackets.

Rank
Team
Notes
Last Week
BeatPower

1

(Beat ARI) No change for San Diego other than the new beatwin. But they [...]