Well, well, well. We are quite possible back for the 2007 season. To be honest, I’m still thinking about whether I want to do it for the whole season, but I’m noticing I’m still getting traffic, and I felt curious about how things would start looking, so here we are.
First, here is the beatpaths graph for Week 1. Prepare to be amazed by its insightful ordering.
To keep it simple, I considered our 2006 Final Rankings the same as the beginning rankings for Week 1. Coming up with the rankings for Week 2 is of course a lot more difficult, but just for giggles, here are the rankings for if this week were fed in to the entire 2006 dataset. So this is basically pretending that this last week was part of the 2006 season. We’re back to using the vanilla version – I’m dumping the beatflukes variant because as the season wore on, it’s minor increase in “picks” accuracy just wasn’t convincing to me. Besides, focusing on picks accuracy really hasn’t been the point here anyway.
| Rank | Team | Notes | Last Week | BeatPower |
1 |
 |
(Beat NO) Indianapolis was sure convincing over New Orleans. |
1 |
100.0(29/29 – 0/29) |
2 |
 |
(Beat CHI) A quality win over a Super Bowl team helps San Diego climb a couple of spots. |
4 |
92.9(24/28 – 0/28) |
3 |
 |
(Beat NYJ) New England slides a spot, mostly because San Diego had such a quality win. Interesting how even this system agrees on the same Big Three teams that every other sports columnist has seized on. |
2 |
92.6(24/27 – 1/27) |
4 |
 |
(Lost to SD) Based off of the strength of their 2006 season, Chicago is still ranked highly. |
3 |
81.8(17/22 – 3/22) |
5 |
 |
(Lost to CIN) A very frustrating ending of the game for Baltimore. |
5 |
88.5(21/26 – 1/26) |
6 |
 |
(Beat STL) Everyone seems surprised by how good Carolina seems all of a sudden, but they’ve been a quietly great team for a while now. |
7 |
92.1(16/19 – 0/19) |
7 |
 |
(Beat BUF) Denver climbs with their victory over Buffalo, who was starting to rank rather high near the end of last season. I was amazed by this victory. I’m relieved that Everett is doing better from his spine injury because I think this is one of those games that will become a bigger part of Denver’s history as time goes on. That last drive – no timeouts, playing from behind, two fourth downs, two third-and-longs, and that freak show field goal? That’s practically legendary. I’m elated that Elam didn’t take that drive away from number 6. I don’t know, Leinert and Young might have more tools, but this Cutler kid might just be ice. |
11 |
66.7(8/18 – 2/18) |
8 |
 |
(Lost to IND) No big penalty for losing to Indianapolis. |
8 |
66.7(13/21 – 6/21) |
9 |
 |
(Beat TB)I’m not quite sure what to make of Seattle yet – most press I’ve seen has been about whether to compare them to the 2005 or 2006. They seem a bit stuck in time, which doesn’t quite work for an aging team. |
10 |
65.9(11/22 – 4/22) |
10 |
 |
(Lost to NE) Maybe a moral victory in catching New England videotaping them? Or maybe that’s just a spiteful victory. |
6 |
68.8(8/16 – 2/16) |
11 |
 |
(Lost to GB) Green Bay’s a lot better than they appeared in 2006. |
9 |
50.0(7/18 – 7/18) |
12 |
 |
(Beat JAC) Actually an expected victory, even though the manner in which they won was unexpected. |
12 |
56.2(6/16 – 4/16) |
13 |
 |
(Lost to CAR) Other dynamics in the graph (far too complicated to unlace at this time) helps St. Louis rise with the loss. |
18 |
55.0(8/20 – 6/20) |
14 |
 |
(Lost to HOU) Kansas City seems ready to sink like a stone. |
13 |
50.0(2/17 – 2/17) |
15 |
 |
(Beat BAL) They had a rough 2006, but maybe they have more solidity now. I think the lack of character had a direct result on their lack of consistency. Maybe Goodell’s policies will make them a better team. |
16 |
50.0(2/15 – 2/15) |
16 |
 |
(Beat CLE) Pittsburgh has a few more graph dynamics to fight through before they can start rising. |
14 |
46.4(3/14 – 4/14) |
17 |
 |
(Lost to DEN) Buffalo can hopefully focus on football more now that such good news has been coming from Everett’s hospital room. I was really relieved on Tuesday. |
15 |
46.7(4/15 – 5/15) |
18 |
 |
(Beat PHI) I’m angry that Favre broke one of Elway’s records. |
17 |
39.5(6/19 – 10/19) |
19 |
 |
(Beat KC) A huge bump for Houston – they’ve been on the verge of rising for a while now. Go Kubiak go! |
29 |
36.8(2/19 – 7/19) |
20 |
 |
(Beat NYG) It might be a surprise to see Dallas rated so low, but this was one of the big stories of 2006 for beatpaths. The NFC East has a history of being over-respected, simply because of the media markets. The truth was that these teams generally sucked, and were in a bit of a bubble. So at least compared to 2006 performance, Dallas defeating the Giants in a barnburner is really no big deal. It doesn’t mean they don’t both suck. 2007 might be a different matter, but don’t be surprised if Green Bay and Miami play these two teams tough in Week 2. |
22 |
33.3(3/18 – 9/18) |
21 |
 |
(Beat ARI) I wouldn’t be surprised to see Arizona, San Francisco, and St. Louis in beatloop hell again this year. The NFC West teams often seem interchangeable to me. |
23 |
32.5(1/20 – 8/20) |
22 |
 |
(Beat ATL) Are the Vikings actually improved? I’m especially curious about this team’s identity this year. |
24 |
28.9(3/19 – 11/19) |
23 |
 |
(Beat MIA) A sucky team will play a vastly superior Philadelphia Eagles team this week, who will in turn play down to Washington’s level. Have I mentioned the NFC East has a history of sucking way more than people want to believe? |
27 |
31.0(0/21 – 8/21) |
24 |
 |
(Lost to TEN) Jacksonville still bounces around like a ping pong ball, due to their two 2006 losses to Houston. Since Houston rose, Jacksonville rises too. |
31 |
25.0(0/16 – 8/16) |
25 |
 |
(Lost to DAL)Tiki Barber is a whiny man that gets credibility for having a friendly face. I try to think of what his face reminds me of and the first face that comes to mind is Justin Timberlake. But I actually like Justin Timberlake. Anyway, I’m glad Barber isn’t on the team anymore. I do think the team is still more dysfunctional than Manning deserves, and part of that is that Coughlin just isn’t savvy enough to deal with New York’s media realities. But I’m thinking they should have an easier time of if this year, especially if Jeremy “Tiki Junior” Shockey can keep a lid on it. Man, I just hated this team in 2006. Not because I hate the Giants, but just because it was such a travesty. The Barber/Coughlin/Shockey trinity was just poisonous. |
19 |
25.0(2/18 – 11/18) |
26 |
 |
(Lost to PIT) I thought Crennel wasn’t given a fair shake last year, but, at least from reading some of the press about how he’s handled the quarterback situation, it’s really left me wincing. |
25 |
22.2(0/18 – 10/18) |
27 |
 |
(Lost to SF) Will they underperform again this year…? Last year they were seen as this year’s Detroit Lions. What does this mean? |
20 |
18.4(0/19 – 12/19) |
28 |
 |
(Lost to WAS) Miami is either a train wreck or a narrowly averted train wreck… still hard to tell. I think that no matter what, though, any time Quinn performs well up in Cleveland, it’s going to damage this team’s reputation. |
21 |
16.7(0/21 – 14/21) |
29 |
 |
(Beat OAK) They still have some graph dynamics to fight through, but it’s an intriguing team this year. I’m especially curious about how Tatum Bell will do when separated from Denver’s running scheme, which didn’t really suit him. |
30 |
15.0(0/20 – 14/20) |
30 |
 |
(Lost to MIN) I really really really want Joey Harrington to do well. He’s a pianist, after all, so I’m in solidarity there. How can you not root for a pianist? |
26 |
17.4(1/23 – 16/23) |
31 |
 |
(Lost to DET) I’m thinking it must have been scary to be Russell as the season started. Once the season starts, a draft holdout can see his value plummet, much like driving a new car off the lot. I wonder if they’ll throw him to the wolves fairly soon. |
32 |
12.5(0/20 – 15/20) |
32 |
 |
(Lost to SEA) Seems weird to see this team so low. |
28 |
6.8(0/22 – 19/22) |
Thank you for coming back. I really enjoy reading your comments and seeing how the teams really stack up against each other.
Glad you came back. This method of power ranking fascinates me. Hope you are able to stick with it through the season.
Yay! Beatpaths is back! I’m glad you’re doing it again, too.
I couldn’t believe that Denver game. I mean, that field goal was the craziest thing I’ve seen in awhile. And Everett, well, what can you say about stuff like that. But Cutler, I dunno. I’ve never been big on the guy, and he didn’t look great throughout the game, but you have to give him props for the last drive. Though you should also have to give Alex Smith the same props.
I know what you mean about Favre beating Elway. I felt the same way after Emmitt passed Walter in career rushing yards. Even though Emmitt was one of the few Cowboys I kinda liked, I was still upset. Well, that and the fact that the record should REALLY belong to Barry–he should have taken it from Walter.
And Barber may speak up a lot, but at least he produces. The man was a legitimate all-pro running back–top 5, at least. What has Coughlin done, especially in New York?
And as for the Bucs being low–don’t. Their offense is underpowered and stalling (Cadillac appears to not be as good as he seemed), and the defense has gotten old and lost most of their stars.
Once again, good to see you back!
Yeah, good to be back. I had all these goals last year to automate this a little more but I never got around to it. So oh well, I guess I’ll be devoting my 2-3 hours a week to this again. 2-3 less to devote to songwriting… but who knows, maybe it’ll inspire me.
Using last year’s results with Week 1 is interesting. It might be good to slowly remove the earlier games from last year as the first few weeks of the season roll on to make the early season results include more data. Maybe remove 4 weeks of last years games each week, so that week 5 beatpath is the first with 100% 2007 results:
Week 1: 16 weeks of 2006
Week 2: 12 weeks of 2006
Week 3: 8 weeks of 2006
Week 4: 4 Weeks of 2006
Week 5: 0 Weeks of 2006
Just an idea!
Welcome back.
Thank you for doing it again. I always come every week during the season to see how the chart looks and how the rankings have changed. Keep up the good work.
I’m glad you’re back too. I’m looking forward to tracing out the paths and loops again this year!