A couple of nice upsets this week, which leads to a couple of new beatloops. But the graph changes aren’t too extreme. The NFC East slips, the NFC South rises, and a lot of other things stay the same. Plus: NE@DAL wasn’t actually the biggest game last week. And: there’s a bigger game next week.
And, the rankings:
| Rank | Team | Notes | Last Week | BeatPower |
1 |
 |
(Bye) The Colts have a heck of a game coming up against Jacksonville. Good that Indianapolis is on a bye so they can heal up, and really good that Jacksonville is looking so dominant this year – the overall quality of this game (as defined by the rank of the teams) is better than the NE@DAL game from this last week. Although, not better than last week’s WAS@GB… |
1 |
100.0(19/19 – 0/19) |
2 |
 |
(Beat WAS) Green Bay’s placement is less secure given the NFC East’s slippage – if they had beaten a worse team this week, they probably would have fallen in the rankings. But they’ve had enough moderately high-quality wins (including Washington’s) that they retain #2. Also, if you go by comparing the ranking of teams playing each other, WAS@GB was actually a bigger game than NE@DAL last week. |
2 |
97.1(16/17 – 0/17) |
3 |
 |
(Beat DAL) Finally a high quality win for New England. They basically swap places with Dallas this week. It remains to be seen just how good Dallas really is – if Dallas slips more, it could hurt New England’s ranking in the future. But Dallas, combined with San Diego’s resurgence, is helping push New England to the top. |
7 |
100.0(20/20 – 0/20) |
4 |
 |
(Beat TEN) The biggest jump in the rankings this week. Tennessee has had some high quality victories, so losing to Tampa Bay helps Tampa Bay more than it hurts the Titans. It also helps Carolina a bit. However, the other thing that is a huge help to Tampa Bay is New Orleans’ win over Seattle, helping Tampa Bay shed their beatloss to Seattle. |
13 |
92.5(18/20 – 1/20) |
5 |
 |
(Lost to TB) Tennessee rises mostly because they’re crammed between Tampa Bay and Jacksonville – since the Jags rise, Tennessee has to rise a bit, too. However, they could see themselves without their support next week if Jacksonville upsets Indianapolis and beatloops away Tennessee’s beatwin over Jacksonville. |
6 |
88.9(16/18 – 2/18) |
6 |
 |
(Beat HOU) Jacksonville gets a monkey off of their back by defeating Houston. Is Garrard the most disciplined quarterback in the NFL right now? |
10 |
82.4(14/17 – 3/17) |
7 |
 |
(Lost to NE) It actually looked close for about two minutes there in the second half… but even then, I knew they were only in the game due to a defensive touchdown – it just seemed as if New England could just keep patiently applying pressure and Dallas would break. All in all, this game showed me that… enh… Dallas might actually be a reasonably good team this year. I’m still not convinced that New England is the class of the AFC, though. |
3 |
94.4(17/18 – 1/18) |
8 |
 |
(Beat ATL) No real reward for defeating Atlanta, and Dallas’ loss pushes down the Giants. |
4 |
83.3(15/18 – 3/18) |
9 |
 |
(Lost to GB) Washington doesn’t really get hurt by the loss to Green Bay since Green Bay already had a beatpath to them, but Dallas’ loss to New England pushes the NFC East down as a whole. |
5 |
77.8(14/18 – 4/18) |
10 |
 |
(Bye) Pittsburgh basically gets leapfrogged by Tampa Bay and Jacksonville, and otherwise holds steady on the bye. Their victory over San Francisco protects them from their loss to Arizona. |
8 |
100.0(10/10 – 0/10) |
11 |
 |
(Beat NYJ) No big reward for their expected victory over the Jets. The Eagles also get leapfrogged by the Bucs and the Jags. I don’t really get the Eagles – they always seem so powerful but it also seems like the expend so much energy in the wins that are supposed to be easy. What is really behind their tendency to play down to their opponents? It’s a pretty consistent occurrence. |
9 |
72.2(13/18 – 5/18) |
12 |
 |
(Beat OAK) San Diego beats Oakland, as expected – they hold steady aside from being leapfrogged by the Bucs. For now, anyway, their victory over Chicago is seen as quality enough that it protects them from both their losses to Kansas City and Green Bay. |
11 |
83.3(11/15 – 1/15) |
13 |
 |
(Lost to JAC) No big penalty for losing to Jacksonville, and Houston’s beatwin over Kansas City is looking slightly higher quality now. They don’t have credit for their win over Carolina due to losing to Atlanta. |
15 |
64.3(8/14 – 4/14) |
14 |
 |
(Beat ARI) No big reward for defeating Arizona, but Tampa Bay’s rise gives Carolina more room to rise as well. Carolina also is protected from their beatloss to Houston, thanks to their victory over Atlanta. |
18 |
57.1(3/7 – 2/7) |
15 |
 |
(Lost to NO) Seattle’s looking kind of lousy. Their loss to New Orleans means they lose credit for defeating Tampa Bay. They already didn’t have credit for defeating San Francisco, thanks to their Arizona loss. |
12 |
80.0(7/10 – 1/10) |
16 |
 |
(Bye) No change in the graph for Detroit, and they hold steady on the bye. |
16 |
66.7(12/18 – 6/18) |
17 |
 |
(Bye) Denver loses ground on the bye, from being leapfrogged by other teams. Their three losses don’t hurt them so badly, since they are all highly ranked and looking better as time goes on – but their two victories aren’t protecting their ranking so much anymore due to other teams racking up more quality victories. Still a lot to be defined. Their next three opponents are ranked higher than them. |
14 |
62.5(10/16 – 6/16) |
18 |
 |
(Beat CIN) Kansas City has a longer beatpath underneath them now thanks to their win over Cincinnati, but they also lose credit for their beatwin over Minnesota, since Minnesota defeated Chicago, who beat Kansas City. |
17 |
56.7(7/15 – 5/15) |
19 |
 |
(Beat SEA) New Orleans sheds their beatloss to Tampa Bay by defeating Seattle. Not a lot to define New Orleans right now, given that their defeats currently look like they might all be to very good teams. |
20 |
10.0(0/5 – 4/5) |
20 |
 |
(Lost to SD) Oakland basically holds steady after their expected loss to San Diego. |
19 |
38.1(8/21 – 13/21) |
21 |
 |
(Beat CHI) Minnesota sheds their beatloss to Kansas City by defeating Chicago. They also shed a beatloss to Green Bay for the same reason, but Green Bay has an alternate beatpath to Minnesota. |
24 |
20.0(1/10 – 7/10) |
22 |
 |
(Bye) Buffalo seems to be in the same weird place as last season – a team that appears horrible, but might actually be rather good. You’d just never know it, due to the difficulty of their schedule. I remember Buffalo appearing surprisingly good in the beatpaths graph and rankings by the end of last season. They’re actually favored against Baltimore next week. |
21 |
18.2(2/11 – 9/11) |
23 |
 |
(Lost to MIN) It was technically an upset that Minnesota defeated Chicago, but they were pretty closely ranked last week, with neither team having a beatpath to the other. The loss to Minnesota reinforces a couple of beatloops Chicago already had involving San Diego, so no major change in the rankings here for the Bears. |
22 |
15.0(0/10 – 7/10) |
24 |
 |
(Beat MIA) No big reward for defeating Miami. Cleveland is still pretty undefined, although isn’t it interesting that Derek Anderson’s performance against Cincinnati is looking a little less flukey now? |
23 |
31.8(7/22 – 15/22) |
25 |
 |
(Lost to NYG) No big penalty for losing to the Giants… Houston and Kansas City no longer have a beatpath to Atlanta, however. They’re protected from their beatloss to Carolina thanks to their victory over Houston. |
26 |
7.1(0/14 – 12/14) |
26 |
 |
(Lost to KC) Cincinnati suffers a beatloss to Kansas City and basically holds steady in the rankings. |
25 |
24.0(6/25 – 19/25) |
27 |
 |
(Beat STL) I’d say that this is probably the most controversial ranking in the beatpaths graph/rankings right now. A lot of people are really high on the Ravens right now – strong defense, etc. But their four victories are against four of the five worst teams in the league. They’ve been bottomfeeding. Buffalo will be a good indicator for this team, although even a victory there would likely only hurt Buffalo more than it would help Baltimore. Three weeks from now they play Pittsburgh, and that’ll give more of an idea. |
27 |
20.0(5/25 – 20/25) |
28 |
 |
(Lost to PHI) No big penalty for losing to Philadelphia. |
28 |
4.3(1/23 – 22/23) |
29 |
 |
(Bye) The bye keeps San Francisco from falling further. |
29 |
6.5(1/23 – 21/23) |
30 |
 |
(Lost to CAR) Their loss to San Francisco keeps them from their wins over Seattle and Pittsburgh. (ARI=>PIT seems like fluke of the year so far.) This is probably the second most controversial placement in the rankings, or at least it would have been before they lost their two starting quarterbacks. In a way, really tough luck for Arizona, but it also removes pressure off of Whisenhunt. Any success he gets out of this team now will just make him look good. |
30 |
6.2(1/24 – 22/24) |
31 |
 |
(Lost to CLE) The two winless teams take the two bottom spots in the rankings. |
31 |
0.0(0/23 – 23/23) |
32 |
 |
(Lost to BAL) Evidently Mark Bulger is coming back? I really miss this team. |
32 |
0.0(0/24 – 24/24) |
I am a bit confused why does New England with a higher Beat Power than Green Bay remain lower than them, with what looks to be a beatpath superior to them (Dallas and GB seem to have the same beatpath and NE just beat Dallas, and GB lost to a significantly worse team in Chicago). It seems that both the diagram and the beat power are inconsistent with the rankings. Do you have an updated algorithm for the rankings
Thank you
Beatpower used to be used as a tiebreaker but I replaced it with a different method – I left beatpower in because people were interested in the stat, but that was a while ago. I might take that column out in the future.
“I’m still not convinced that New England is the class of the AFC, though.”
This is either a clever ploy to get me to post and increase traffic, or a sure sign you’re delusional. 6 straight wins by 17 points or more plus a convincing win, on the road, against probably the best team in the NFC.
Hata in da house.
Kirk:
Hi, my name is Peyton Manning and I have a bone to pick with your last comment.
In all seriousness, I can admit that it’s very easy to look at New England and conclude that they’re the strongest. But I’m just as impressed by Indy, honestly. They haven’t been as impressive just by the stats, but their wins have come against tougher opposition.
I can’t tell anyone saying the Pats are better that they’re wrong, but I’m sticking with the Colts for now. And I will probably continue to do so until one of them loses. Bring on November 4th!
“They haven’t been as impressive just by the stats, but their wins have come against tougher opposition.”
Interestingly enough, the Pats’ opponents’ margin of victory is better than the Colts’ opponents’ margin of victory, so I could theoretically make an argument that the Pats have had the harder schedule.
Granted, a large part of that has to do with the 41-3 blowout the Chargers had over the Broncos, and the fact the Pats played the Chargers while the Colts played the Broncos. I don’t think anyone really believes the Chargers are 38 points better than the Colts, but I also don’t think it’s a stretch to say the strength of schedules between the Colts and Pats is closer than the W-L records actually project.
That being said, I do believe the Colts are the second best team, hands down, and I’ll be pulling for them the next two weeks so they can be undefeated as well. I expect it to be an absolutely incredible game.
I don’t understand your rankings. New England has a beat path to every team that Green Bay has a beat path to, plus four others. New England is also undefeated (no beatloops), while Green Bay has a loss (beatloop). Based on the beatpath graph, I can’t fathom any reason that Green Bay should be ranked ahead of New England.
Good question – not all of GB’s beatpaths are visible. If a team has a direct beatwin over a team already in its beatpath, then I don’t draw the arrow since it clutters up the graph. Green Bay has a direct beatwin over Washington, though. That means that Green Bay’s strength of beatwins are stronger than New England’s so far.
I percieve the graphs as two heaps rising up with Indy and New England at the top. Either the Pats or Colts have a beatpath to every team except GB, Pitt, and Seattle. (Interestingly enough, Denver can eliminate these anomalies by winning at home the next two weeks.)
If Indy can escape Jacksonville with a W on Monday, then there’s a good chance we’ll get a 7-0 vs. 8-0 matchup that is absolutely worthy of the hype.