2007 NFL Week 10 Picks

In my ongoing campaign to eventually someday be included on King Kaufman’s Panel O’ Experts and compete for his grand prize of dinner at his house, even though I’ll never win, I am posting NFL picks. This is for Week 10.

Please note that if you actually use pure beatpath picks for your own picks, you’re insane. We don’t even pay attention to home field advantage here. Last week we were 10-4, but who cares. We are now 85-45, for a 65.4% pick percentage, but who cares.

Week 1: 9-7
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 8-6
Week 5: 9-5
Week 6: 9-4
Week 7: 11-3
Week 8: 11-2
Week 9: 10-4

Denver at KANSAS CITY: Neither team has a beatpath to the other, but Kansas City is slightly favored. If Denver wins, it would hurt San Diego. If Kansas City wins, they get a beatpath to Denver and it helps them slightly in the rankings.

BUFFALO at Miami: Buffalo has a beatpath to Miami. If Miami wins, they create a beatloop involving the Jets.

Minnesota at GREEN BAY: Green Bay has a beatpath to Minnesota. If Minnesota wins, the season split busts a beatloop with Chicago, but MIN=>CHI=>GB is still obliterated by other beatloops, so it doesn’t matter.

Cleveland at PITTSBURGH: Pittsburgh has a beatpath to Cleveland. If Cleveland wins, the season split busts the beatpath.

St Louis at NEW ORLEANS: New Orleans has a beatpath to St. Louis. If St Louis wins, they create two beatloops but still remain crunched down in the graph.

JACKSONVILLE at Tennessee: Neither team has a beatpath to the other, but Jacksonville is ranked higher, mainly due to the AFC West being ranked higher than the NFC South. If Jacksonville wins, it busts a beatloop and TB->TEN re-emerges. If Tennessee wins, it gains a beatpath over Jacksonville.

Philadelphia at WASHINGTON: Washington has a direct beatpath over Philadelphia. If Philadelphia wins, they split the season series, but NYG->PHI means there wouldn’t be a big difference in the graph.

Atlanta at CAROLINA: Carolina has a beatpath to Atlanta. If Atlanta wins, they split the season series, but it would bust apart the NFC South beatpath quite a bit, which would help New Orleans.

CINCINNATI at Baltimore: These two teams are ranked right next to each other. If Balitmore wins, it would create a season split and bust the beatpath that Cincinnati has over Baltimore.

Chicago at OAKLAND: Another closely ranked game. Chicago is playing for a beatpath. If Oakland wins, they shed their beatloss to Kansas City.

DETROIT at Arizona: Detroit is highly favored for this game. If Arizona wins, they bust a beatloop which might not help them immediately, but could help them rise significantly in future weeks.

DALLAS at NY Giants: Dallas has a direct beatpath to the Giants. If the Giants win, they split and shed the beatloss, which would make Dallas sink in the rankings.

INDIANAPOLIS at San Diego: Neither team has a beatpath to the other. If Indianapolis wins, it would hurt San Diego in the AFC West. If San Diego wins, they’d actually get a beatpath to Indianapolis, hurting Indianapolis in the rankings – in the solo-game simulation, six of the top seven teams would be NFC teams.

San Francisco at SEATTLE: Seattle has a beatpath to San Francisco. If San Francisco wins, it creates a season split, but another beatpath from Seattle remains.

5 Responses to 2007 NFL Week 10 Picks

  1. Shawn says:

    Now that the Chargers have beaten Indy, since Green Bay has beaten the Chargers, does that give the Packers a beatpath to the Colts now, or will they only get it if they beat the Bears later in the year and break the SD>=CHI>=GB beatloop?

  2. ThunderThumbs says:

    Yeah, a fair amount of teams have a beatpath to Indianapolis now, including Green Bay.

  3. The MOOSE says:

    Interesting week, as usual. I finished my graphs and will post them after I see you put up the main thread. For two weeks SD’s games have had major impacts on the graph.

    Strangely, this week’s regular graph is both longer and cleaner than the weighted graph. It just goes to show that using points to keep more relationships doesn’t lead to more consistency in the graph.

  4. The MOOSE says:

    Ok, since a few people are probably itching for the graphs and looking for discussion, my graphs are up. Same links as last week. Due to computer issues I wasn’t able to work on Doktarr’s suggestion yet. Also note that my BeatLoop list doesn’t display season splits although it does account for them correctly.

    http://www.twomuffin.com/BeatPaths.htm
    http://www.twomuffin.com/BeatPathsWeighted.htm

  5. ThunderThumbs says:

    rankings are up now… sorry, didn’t catch that comment immediately (comments with links are set to make me approve them to protect against link spam).

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