In my ongoing campaign to eventually someday be included on King Kaufman’s Panel O’ Experts and compete for his grand prize of dinner at his house, even though I’ll never win, I am posting NFL picks. This is for Week 12.
Please note that if you actually use pure beatpath picks for your own picks, you’re insane. We don’t even pay attention to home field advantage here. Last week we were 11-5, but who cares. We are now 103-57, for a 64.4% pick percentage, but who cares.
Week 1: 9-7
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 8-6
Week 5: 9-5
Week 6: 9-4
Week 7: 11-3
Week 8: 11-2
Week 9: 10-4
Week 10: 7-7
Week 11: 11-5
GREEN BAY at Detroit: Green Bay has a beatpath to Detroit. If Detroit wins, Detroit actually becomes another team with no beatlosses, with a further flattening of the graph. The NFC East would get hurt because WAS->DET would disappear, which would make the AFC look better.
NY Jets at DALLAS: Dallas has a beatpath to the Jets. If the Jets win, Dallas loses credit for several victories but retains credit to one of their Giants victories, so they would slip a couple of spots but there wouldn’t be a huge difference in the rankings.
INDIANAPOLIS at Atlanta: Indianapolis has a beatpath to Atlanta. If Atlanta wins, Indianapolis would lose credit for a few victories. Their highest quality beatwin would be to Denver, and they’d fall a bit in the rankings.
SEATTLE at St. Louis: Seattle has a beatpath to St. Louis. If St. Louis wins, they split the season series, which has a negligible affect on the graph.
WASHINGTON at Tampa Bay: Neither team has a beatpath to the other, but Washington is slightly favored. If Washington wins, they get a beatpath to Tampa Bay and help themselves slightly in the rankings. If Tampa Bay wins, Washington loses its beatpath to Detroit and takes a tumble!
Minnesota at NY GIANTS: The Giants have a beatpath to Minnesota. If Minnesota wins, the Giants lose their beatwins over Philadelphia and Detroit, and drop a couple of slots in the rankings.
Buffalo at JACKSONVILLE: Jacksonville has a beatpath to Buffalo through Denver. If Buffalo wins, it becomes a beatloop – Jacksonville drops a couple, Buffalo climbs a few, and Denver remains the same.
HOUSTON at Cleveland: A pretty close matchup – neither team has a beatpath to the other, but Houston is ranked slightly higher. If Houston wins, they get a beatpath and rise a couple of slots while Cleveland sinks a couple. If Cleveland wins, a long beatloops gets shrunk and CLE->SEA->CHI re-emerges – this increases the height of part of the lower half of the graph, and it has a big effect on the graph – among other things, Pittsburgh and Cleveland are helped, Kansas City and San Diego are hurt.
TENNESSEE at Cincinnati: Neither team has a beatpath to the other, but Tennessee is favored. If Tennessee wins, they get a beatwin over them, with no major effect in the rankings. If Cincinnati wins, they shed their beatloss to Cleveland, with no effect in the rankings. In terms of potential impact, this is nowhere near as big a game as Houston at Cleveland.
New Orleans at CAROLINA: Carolina has a beatwin over New Orleans. If New Orleans wins, they’d split the series – Houston would be slightly hurt, and New Orleans would be ever so slightly helped.
Oakland at KANSAS CITY: Kansas City has a beatwin over Oakland. If Oakland wins, they’d split the season series. Baltimore and Arizona would be slightly hurt.
San Francisco at ARIZONA: Neither team has a beatpath to the other, but Arizona is favored. If Arizona wins, they’d split a season series, busting beatloops that are reinforced by other beatloops – no real change in the rankings, but removing more obstacles for a future rise. If San Francisco wins, they get a beatpath to Arizona, further damning them to the bottom of the rankings.
DENVER at Chicago: Neither team has a beatpath to the other, but Denver is favored. If Denver wins, they shed their beatloss to Green Bay. It’s reinforced by another beatpath through Detroit, so there would be no (immediate) change in the graph or rankings. If Chicago wins, Denver would lose credit for their beatwin over Pittsburgh. Denver wouldn’t be hurt too badly, but it would be a huge help to Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Cleveland. Pittsburgh and Seattle would both have no beatlosses. They would actually be helped more than Chicago would, so while Chicago’s overall outlook would be improved, they could slip in the rankings. One of those short term penalty for better long term prospect things.
Baltimore at SAN DIEGO: Neither team has a beatpath to the other, but San Diego is favored. If San Diego wins, they get a beatpath, helping them and hurting Baltimore. If Baltimore wins, they shed their beatloss to Cleveland, and San Diego loses credit for defeating Oakland. This doesn’t really help Baltimore at all, but it hurts San Diego.
Philadelphia at NEW ENGLAND: New England has a beatpath to Philadelphia. If Philadelphia wins, New England loses credit for their beatwin over Dallas, and Dallas could actually take over the top spot in the rankings.
Miami at PITTSBURGH: Pittsburgh has a beatpath to Miami. If Miami wins, Pittsburgh loses credit for their beatwin over Cleveland, and Buffalo, which is currently beatlooped away already. Miami would shed beatlosses to the same teams. It wouldn’t have a huge effect on the graph, although in general there seem to be a few opportunities this week for the Jets and Atlanta to rise a couple of spots.
Ah, I was waiting for this stuff.
Thanks for all your work.
BTW, to your point in the rankings how the AFC West is getting unfairly dumped on while the AFC North is worse; well, part of the reason is that the West doesn’t have a winning team at this point. It’s also helped by the fact that Pittsburgh started out so well. And the West hasn’t been helped by some of the high-profile stompings it’s received (DEN vs. IND, DEN vs. DET, SD vs. NE, SD vs. MIN, etc.). I actually agree with the media line–I don’t think much of the AFC West this season. I know the graph says otherwise, but it seems like a lot of that comes from DEN beating PIT, which seemed like a fluke win. Just my opinion.
Anyway, enjoy the game this weekend! My Bears vs. your Broncos! Go BEARS!
It’s interesting though, because the AFC North is matched up against the NFC West (awful), while the AFC West is matched up against the NFC North (pretty darn good). That’s very much affecting the win-loss records in the divisions. If Denver and Pittsburgh hadn’t played, Pittsburgh would be ranked in the top ten, but Denver would still be ranked #11… and the AFC West and the AFC North would still look about even.
What a boring first batch of games, by the way. All three games on Thanksgiving, all went as you’d expect, all of them reinforce existing relationships, for no change in either the graph or the rankings.
Hope the Broncos game is interesting! Go Broncos! Loser has to write a limerick complimenting the other team.
There once were some cheaters from Mass’
Who played without any class
Then Denver dethroned them
Cuz Shanahan owned them,
and Jesus, did Cedric Benson just get tackled for loss again?! What is he down to, 2.6 yards per carry? Seriously, this is beyond awful.
Good luck to your Broncos, but Go Bears!
Good God, the seahawks and jags are still playing, but so far today, EVERY game has been an upset. Denver is temporarily ranked #7 !
Jay Cutler was great throwing bombs
To Marshall, Hall, Stokley, probably somebody’s mom
But the defense did little
Special teams were brittle
Somebody’s got to tackle Devin Hester sometime, I mean, this is beyond ridiculous. That’s like ten kickoff returns for touchdowns.
Still haven’t gotten the hang of this limerick thing, I’m afraid.
Hester’s a demigod argh!!!
The Broncos lost badly and argh!!!!
Rex Grossman got in it
Right at the last minute
And beat my poor Broncos and argh!!!!!