Good week this week – the picks were 14-2, which means there aren’t a ton of changes in the graph and rankings.
And, the rankings:
| Rank | Team | Notes | Last Week | BeatPower |
1 |
 |
(Beat PIT) New England now has a beatpath to every team in the league. They’re beatable, though. Of all teams, I think Denver matches up with them pretty well, at least if their linebackers have a good day. |
1 |
100.0(31/31 – 0/31) |
2 |
 |
(Beat DET) Dallas in their familiar #2 spot, with that blowout loss to New England still hanging above their heads. |
2 |
96.0(24/25 – 1/25) |
3 |
 |
(Beat BAL) Indianapolis manhandles Baltimore after Baltimore gives New England a real game of it. |
3 |
92.9(19/21 – 1/21) |
4 |
 |
(Beat OAK) Green Bay defeats Oakland as expected… which makes Oakland’s dominating victory over Denver all the weirder. Excuse all my Denver commentary, my head has been ruminating over playoff possibilities. |
4 |
86.0(20/25 – 2/25) |
5 |
 |
(Beat PHI) The Giants regain a beatwin over Philadelphia and rise a couple of slots in the rankings. |
7 |
87.0(19/23 – 2/23) |
6 |
 |
(Beat CAR) Jacksonville defeats Carolina and holds steady in the rankings. It seems pretty assured they’ll take a #5 wildcard slot. At least from Denver’s perspective, there’s no way Denver can get a wildcard slot without Jacksonville getting the other. |
6 |
83.3(16/21 – 2/21) |
7 |
 |
(Lost to DAL) Detroit loses to Dallas as expected… the only reason they rise a slot is because Pittsburgh falls. |
8 |
79.2(17/24 – 3/24) |
8 |
 |
(Beat SF) Minnesota won without a rushing game. Then again, it was against San Francisco. But still, this team is starting to frighten me a bit. Going by beatpaths rankings, this team would get screwed out of a playoff slot. |
9 |
80.0(18/25 – 3/25) |
9 |
 |
(Lost to NE) Other teams all look like they have slightly better beatpaths below them, so Pittsburgh falls a few. They were never as good as they were made out to be this last week. They’ve had dominating victories against poor competition, but in general they’ve just been a pretty good team this season. |
5 |
78.6(9/14 – 1/14) |
10 |
 |
(Beat TEN) That was a close one, defeating Tennessee. San Diego plays Detroit next week, and Denver will very much need them to lose. There are ways Denver can sneak into the playoffs without San Diego losing, but this is a pretty key game on the schedule. Denver got walloped by Detroit, and Detroit will also be looking to get back on track… |
10 |
77.1(17/24 – 4/24) |
11 |
 |
(Beat NYJ) I don’t really see Cleveland collapsing down the stretch, given their schedule. Bad news for Denver. This also fills out the AFC playoff picture from the Beatpaths perspective. |
11 |
73.1(8/13 – 2/13) |
12 |
 |
(Beat KC) Denver’s upcoming schedule frightens me, because even if they win their next two, tying San Diego and having the tiebreaker edge against San Diego, they’ll then have to defeat Minnesota to hold on, and it seems to me that Denver could have some of the same matchup problems that they had against Detroit. It’ll be shades of last year, when they lost at home to San Francisco. Still, it was fun watching the statistics pile up against Kansas City. Too bad they couldn’t have sprinkled that success among a few of their other games this year… Chicago in particular. |
12 |
61.1(15/27 – 9/27) |
13 |
 |
(Lost to HOU) One of the only two upsets this last week. Tampa Bay isn’t hurt too badly by the loss, even though Houston is helped. |
13 |
64.3(6/14 – 2/14) |
14 |
 |
(Beat ARI) The Seahawks win as expected, and fill out the NFC playoff picture, screwing only Minnesota. |
14 |
63.3(7/15 – 3/15) |
15 |
 |
(Beat TB) Houston really isn’t looking bad. And Sage Rosenfels… I never have seen him play but he seems to do pretty well? Has he always been pretty good or is Kubiak making him better? They’re pretty closely ranked to Denver and it seems like it could be a close game. |
19 |
47.5(5/20 – 6/20) |
16 |
 |
(Beat MIA) No great reward for defeating Miami! Buffalo holds about steady, save for Houston leapfrogging them on their upset. |
15 |
44.7(8/19 – 10/19) |
17 |
 |
(Lost to SD) Tennessee also holds steady on the expected loss, aside from Houston leapfrogging them. |
16 |
45.5(8/22 – 10/22) |
18 |
 |
(Lost to WAS) Chicago loses to Washington in an upset, but the various beatloops and beatpaths were so reinforced that the game output really doesn’t have much of an effect. This means that both upsets this week would still be considered upsets even after the rankings reshuffled. True upsets. |
17 |
43.3(2/15 – 4/15) |
19 |
 |
(Lost to NYG) Philadelphia loses to the Giants, as expected. |
18 |
30.8(2/13 – 7/13) |
20 |
 |
(Beat CHI) Washington doesn’t get any help from their victory, although future games could make hidden outcomes re-emerge. |
20 |
26.5(3/17 – 11/17) |
21 |
 |
(Lost to DEN) Kansas City loses as expected. This team has really collapsed – back when they played Green Bay, they could have been a top five team had they won. The stats in this game were pretty unreal – Kansas City’s only significant yards came on a drive where they went for it on fourth down three times, and in garbage time. |
21 |
16.7(0/15 – 10/15) |
22 |
 |
(Beat STL) Some minor shuffling in the rankings down here due to tiebreakers and relative strength. Since Carolina falls a couple, Cincinnati rises. |
23 |
25.0(3/22 – 14/22) |
23 |
 |
(Beat ATL) New Orleans defeats Atlanta… as far as rallying cries go, I’m not sure “Free Michael Vick” is the most inspiring, but it sure is depressing. |
24 |
22.2(2/18 – 12/18) |
24 |
 |
(Lost to JAC) It just seems like Carolina should be better than this, doesn’t it? What’s the story behind this team? I see a home record of 1-5, but a winning road record. It’s weird. |
22 |
22.2(3/18 – 13/18) |
25 |
 |
(Lost to GB) Oakland loses to Green Bay as expected, but swaps places with Atlanta in the rankings due to tiebreakers. |
26 |
15.6(1/16 – 12/16) |
26 |
 |
(Lost to NO) Atlanta loses to New Orleans and waits for next year. |
25 |
13.9(0/18 – 13/18) |
27 |
 |
(Lost to IND) Earlier this season it seemed like this wasn’t Baltimore’s proper place in the rankings, but there just hasn’t ever been any reason for them to break out. |
27 |
15.8(2/19 – 15/19) |
28 |
 |
(Lost to CLE) The Jets hold steady on the loss – all the rankings from here on out are pretty steady. |
28 |
10.5(1/19 – 16/19) |
29 |
 |
(Lost to SEA) Arizona has done very well against the AFC this season, but they don’t have much to show for themselves otherwise. |
29 |
16.7(0/24 – 16/24) |
30 |
 |
(Lost to CIN) Evidently, this was a game to just give their practice squad quarterback some experience. I feel bad for this team, they’re very talented and it seems they just got hit with a wrecking ball this season. |
30 |
8.3(0/24 – 20/24) |
31 |
 |
(Lost to MIN) I don’t feel bad for San Francisco, though – I just can’t see why they took such a downward turn. How is it so hard to replace Norv? Where’s the problem here? |
31 |
6.2(0/24 – 21/24) |
32 |
 |
(Lost to BUF) At what point is Miami finished being punished for their bad draft? They say all the teams are pretty close in terms of talent – just a couple of tweaks and every team can rise or fall significantly in quality… but can one good draft next year really help this team? How many weak points do they have? |
32 |
0.0(0/21 – 21/21) |
(Not an NE fan, by the way — Browns and Bears fan — so this is not homerism.)
Could you elaborate on that? The only teams I could see matching up with NE well are IND, PHI (if offensive output could be pumped up a notch or two), possibly the NYG if Eli played out of his mind and their pass rush could get by NE’s line, GB with their secondary playing lights out and Favre not Favring it up with forced throws leading to INTs, and (maybe) DAL just because they can keep up scoring wise.
I can’t really think of a case to be made by any other team. MIN with their rushing attack? Maybe, but I don’t see their secondary able to prevent NE’s passing attack from overcoming MIN’s rushing TDs. DEN, though… just not seeing it.
Denver has a strong secondary, #7 against the pass last I checked…. and with Hamza Abdullah as a safety, better than it was earlier this season. Their linebackers are suspect though so I’m not sure about that layer, but I think they’d match up against New England’s passing attack better than most. The main danger would be New England picking at them underneath all day.
On the other side, Denver’s offense is young, but obviously dangerous when it’s on. They don’t necessarily need a strong poundingly consistent rushing attack when they’ve got their other passing options.
hmm… succinctly, if denver’s going to win the division, they have to win out and san diego has to lose to oakland. the DET@SD game is irrelevant.
As for Rosenfels, I’ve been loosely following his career in the NFL since he’s one of the few Iowa State players in the league. He’s always managed to be one of those competent backup QBs, consistent enough to manage a game and not make too many mistakes (usually). But there always seems to be someone a bit more talented in front of him.
He seems like one of those players who could suddenly get thrust into a starting job due to an injury and pull a Kurt Warner (1999 version) like season, or just knock around for a several more seasons as a backup before quietly retiring.
As a Patriot fan, I know the only way we ever have a chance of defeating the Broncos is by taking an intentional safety. I’d never count the Broncos out.
“Denver has a strong secondary, #7 against the pass last I checked…. and with Hamza Abdullah as a safety, better than it was earlier this season. Their linebackers are suspect though so I’m not sure about that layer, but I think they’d match up against New England’s passing attack better than most. The main danger would be New England picking at them underneath all day.”
Denver’s only #7 against the pass because nobody has to pass on them because they’re too busy running the ball. Denver’s giving up 7.34 yards per pass attempt, which is 25th in the league. Both the pass and rush defense of Denver is very weak this year. NE would chew them up.
Denver needs a great game from their safties, more than their linebackers, to hang with NE. Look at the long TDs against Pittsburgh – it’s the safties getting burned. And of course, this assumes that Bailey and Bly are getting it done and the pass rush is getting decent pressure off the edge.
Shannahan’s philosophy of “if you’re not playing for the championship, you’re playing for the future” appears to be paying dividends. We’re what, 17 games into the Jay Cutler era now? He just now seems to be getting it. That said, the Tennessee game makes it pretty hard to make the playoffs.
How about that Todd Collins? Talk about a forgotten backup. Rosenfels is a decent backup, yeah. I hesitate to use the term “game manager”, which tends to be a euphemism for “Lousy QB who avoids turnovers and is carried to victory by defense and running game”.
Norv Turner has an exhaustively established track record as a pretty decent offensive coordinator who is a terrible head coach. (Interestingly, even his offenses suck when he’s a head coach. I don’t think he can manage all the responsibilities at the same time.) His move from Fran to Diego hurt both teams.
My “conflict picks” were 1-1, as I predicted, including picking my Redskins over the Bears. I’m sure that the revised rankings will knock Arizona back down under Seattle, thus giving the “retroactive” picks a 15-1 mark. I’d guess the Houston>TB pick would be classed as a “true upset”, though, even with the benefit of hindsight.
Actually, this would be an interesting measure of how reflective a beatpath ranking system is of the results thus far: what percentage of the _past games_ from the entire season would be correctly predicted by _this week’s_ rankings?
I wouldn’t count the Broncos out vs Pats. Colts beat Broncos and Pats beat Colts so far this year, so the Colts-Pats-Broncos Rock-Paper-Scissors relationship could be back on.
I might have been imagining things, but last time Denver beat New England, in New England, it seemed like New England was almost insulted by it. That was fun.
That said, I am taking a closer look at this and I’m having a really hard time imagining an easy path in for the Broncos. Regarding this weekend, it looks like aside from hoping for the Broncos to beat the Texans, I have to really hope that the Bills beat the Browns. Weird.
“I wouldn’t count the Broncos out vs Pats. Colts beat Broncos and Pats beat Colts so far this year, so the Colts-Pats-Broncos Rock-Paper-Scissors relationship could be back on. ”
Well it really doesn’t matter. We can hypothesize all we want, but Denver’s not playing NE this year. That being said, Denver would have as much of a chance at beating the Pats as a lot of other teams. Possible, but highly unlikely. There’s a reason they won’t make the playoffs, and it’s not due to a brutal schedule.
I don’t know about Denver beating the Patriots. It seems to me, to beat the Patriots you need a good and disciplined secondary (which they seem to have, I’ll take your word for it), a good pass rush (yes? no?), and the ability to stretch the field with the pass and work the middle with tight ends/slot receivers (dunno if that’s true with Denver). So, does Denver really have all of that?
Sage Rosenfels seems to be the kind of guy who can pop in as a backup and take the other team by surprise, being efficient and making decent decisions. But I don’t think he has long-term (meaning, even a season) potential. Call it the Damon Huard effect.
And finally…you were wondering why the Panthers aren’t very good. Well, there is a position in the NFL called quarterback, maybe you’ve heard of it.
My graphs are up:
http://www.twomuffin.com/start.php?page=BeatPaths.htm
http://www.twomuffin.com/start.php?page=BeatPathsWeighted.htm
http://www.twomuffin.com/start.php?page=BeatPathsDoktarr.htm
I didn’t have time to add the team graphics on the graphs this week, oh well. Doktarr, I added the processing output to your method so you’ll be able to see it there.
Awesome, Moose. Thanks a lot.
Conflict picks look pretty similar to last week – one pick that I really like, and the Cardinals.
SD>DET – on the face of it this looks like a solid pick.
ARI>NO – Ack. Although they dropped about 10 spots after last week’s loss stripped them of their best win (CLE), my algorithm still gives Arizona credit for the Detroit win. That’s not as impressive since Detroit is much lower, but still, it earns them a rank in the 18-20 range. With two wildly inconsistent 6-7 teams that don’t play pass defense and rely on passing offense, anything could happen in this game. Given that this is in the Superdome, though, I hate the pick.
You guys are awesome to humor me so much with my Denver -> New England certainty.
Well, there’s some good history behind it. Here are the records of each team in the NFL vs. the Patriots from 2001 to present (12/12/08) (regular season and postseason):
Browns 0-4
Jaguars, Eagles 0-3
Cowboys, Falcons, Texans, Vikings, Lions, Saints, Bears, Ravens 0-2
49ers, Giants, Buccaneers, Seahawks, Cardinals 0-1
Bills 1-13
Steelers 1-5
Jets 3-11
Bengals, Titans 1-3
Colts 3-7
Chiefs, Panthers, Raiders, Rams 1-2
Dolphins 5-8
Chargers 2-3
Packers, Redskins 1-1
and… wait for it…
Broncos: 4-1
“You guys are awesome to humor me so much with my Denver -> New England certainty.”
Hey, for a couple years back there that’s how it worked.
Denver matches up well v. NE…if Brady were to tear his ACL prior to the game.
Love the site, but what kind of empty analysis is that?
Hey! It’s the BEST kind of empty analysis.