The Wildcard round went about as expected, with the exception of Seattle defeating Washington at home, in what was already considered a very closely-matched game (#20 at #21). Here’s the new graph:
And, the updated rankings:
| Rank | Team | Notes | Last Week | BeatPower |
1 |
 |
(Bye) |
1 |
100.0(31/31 – 0/31) |
2 |
 |
(Bye) |
2 |
96.2(25/26 – 1/26) |
3 |
 |
(Bye) |
3 |
92.0(22/25 – 1/25) |
4 |
 |
(Beat TEN) We had two teams that were very relieved to get out of the first round of the playoffs due to past history. San Diego was one… |
4 |
88.9(22/27 – 1/27) |
5 |
 |
(Beat TB) And the Giants were the other. Some good games are coming up next week, the best weekend of the year! |
5 |
88.0(21/25 – 2/25) |
6 |
 |
(Lost to SD) Seattle’s victory adjusted dynamics enough that Tennessee’s beatpath looks stronger now, strong enough to push them up a few spots in the rankings, despite losing to San Diego. |
9 |
81.8(16/22 – 2/22) |
7 |
 |
(Beat PIT) Jacksonville holds stead on the win, other than being leapfrogged by Tennessee. |
6 |
82.0(18/25 – 2/25) |
8 |
 |
(Bye) |
7 |
84.0(19/25 – 2/25) |
9 |
 |
(Bye) |
8 |
76.0(17/25 – 4/25) |
10 |
 |
(Bye) |
10 |
64.8(16/27 – 8/27) |
11 |
 |
(Bye) Houston is another beneficiary of Seattle’s win, as is Philadelphia and Carolina. |
13 |
71.7(14/23 – 4/23) |
12 |
 |
(Bye) |
14 |
70.0(12/20 – 4/20) |
13 |
 |
(Lost to JAC) Pittsburgh never looked as strong as some in the media thought they did this year. |
11 |
60.9(14/23 – 9/23) |
14 |
 |
(Bye) |
18 |
59.1(12/22 – 8/22) |
15 |
 |
(Bye) |
12 |
56.2(13/24 – 10/24) |
16 |
 |
(Bye) |
16 |
50.0(2/15 – 2/15) |
17 |
 |
(Lost to NYG) Tampa Bay drops to the lower half of the league (still above Seattle and Washington). |
15 |
46.9(3/16 – 4/16) |
18 |
 |
(Bye) |
17 |
47.8(11/23 – 12/23) |
19 |
 |
(Beat WAS) Seattle gains a beatpath to Washington and rises a couple of spots. I ran a simulation – if they had gone undefeated, they would have been ranked only #4. |
21 |
44.8(11/29 – 14/29) |
20 |
 |
(Bye) Only minor shuffling from here on down, due to subtle graph dynamics. |
19 |
32.4(1/17 – 7/17) |
21 |
 |
(Lost to SEA) Washington slips one on the loss to Seattle. |
20 |
33.3(8/27 – 17/27) |
22 |
 |
(Bye) |
23 |
15.6(0/16 – 11/16) |
23 |
 |
(Bye) |
22 |
26.9(6/26 – 18/26) |
24 |
 |
(Bye) |
24 |
20.8(3/24 – 17/24) |
25 |
 |
(Bye) |
25 |
11.4(1/22 – 18/22) |
26 |
 |
(Bye) |
27 |
17.3(2/26 – 19/26) |
27 |
 |
(Bye) |
28 |
13.0(1/23 – 18/23) |
28 |
 |
(Bye) |
26 |
6.8(1/22 – 20/22) |
29 |
 |
(Bye) |
30 |
13.5(1/26 – 20/26) |
30 |
 |
(Bye) |
29 |
6.2(0/24 – 21/24) |
31 |
 |
(Bye) |
31 |
2.1(0/24 – 23/24) |
32 |
 |
(Bye) |
32 |
3.8(0/26 – 24/26) |
Interesting that your system had the Giants as a huge favorite over the Bucs, while Football Outsider’s DVOA had the Bucs as huge favorites. Guess that one worked out well for you, huh?
Glad to see Philadelphia back where it belongs up near the top.
Yeah, I wish I had had the time to take a closer look at that Giants Bucs discrepancy. Pretty interesting.