2008 NFL Week 3 Beatpaths Rankings

Rank Team Notes Last Week BeatPower

1

(Beat CIN) The Giants are finally atop the rankings, mostly due to the strength of Washington’s beatpath.

3

100.0

(13/13 – 0/13)

2

(Beat GB) Dallas retains the #2 spot, but for entirely different reasons – the strong beatpath to Philadelphia, and the less strong but still potentially impressive beatwin over Green Bay.

2

100.0

(8/8 – 0/8)

3

(Beat ARI) Lots of talk about Washington this week in the comments. Most of our rankings variants rank Washington highly, as high as #2. But it’s sticking out like a sore thumb that their placement is propped up by a seemingly strong NFC West…

17

91.7

(11/12 – 1/12)

4

(Beat NO) Denver rises due to the placement of New Orleans. It’s also possible that Denver could be propped up for a while by San Diego if they continue to improve. Beatloops could always happen, but Denver doesn’t play San Diego again until the end of the season.

6

100.0

(9/9 – 0/9)

5

(Beat PIT) Philadelphia rises after defeating Pittsburgh, putting the entire NFC East in the top five of the league.

7

80.0

(4/5 – 1/5)

6

(Lost to DEN) One of the strange moves in the early season. New Orleans is propped up by a strong-looking Tampa Bay, although Tampa Bay might not be as strong as it appears.

18

62.5

(5/8 – 3/8)

7

(Lost to WAS) Arizona’s two wins are over San Francisco and Miami, two teams that were very bad last season. But, the NFC West has managed to work itself into a pecking order already, so it makes Arizona look strong.

26

71.4

(5/7 – 2/7)

8

(Beat OAK) Buffalo is mostly helped by Jacksonville defeating Indianapolis.

15

100.0

(6/6 – 0/6)

9

(Beat HOU) Tennessee is still undefeated, but their opponents look fairly weak in the graph.

4

100.0

(4/4 – 0/4)

10

(Lost to MIN) Carolina lost to Minnesota, but it was immediately beatlooped away, costing Carolina their beatwin over Chicago.

10

70.0

(2/5 – 0/5)

11

(Beat CLE) Baltimore looks about similar to Tennessee in terms of strength of opponents.

21

100.0

(2/2 – 0/2)

12

(Lost to MIA) How is it that teams properly defend against the Wildcat, anyway? And why couldn’t New England adjust to it in the second half? New England tumbles and loses their beatwin over the NY Jets.

1

66.7

(1/3 – 0/3)

13

(Lost to DAL) Green Bay’s fall is more because their beatwins look weak than it is because of losing to Dallas.

5

66.7

(2/3 – 1/3)

14

(Lost to PHI) Pittsburgh’s beatwins are not looking very quality at this point, either.

8

50.0

(2/4 – 2/4)

15

(Beat CHI) Tampa Bay rises on the victory over Chicago – it also helped that Atlanta won.

19

50.0

(4/8 – 4/8)

16

(Beat DET) Detroit is making everyone look good. What are the ways that Detroit can improve quickly now that Millen is gone? Maybe Barry Sanders will come back?

27

50.0

(3/6 – 3/6)

17

(Beat NYJ) San Diego loses beatpath length due to Miami beating New England.

11

33.3

(1/3 – 2/3)

18

(Beat IND) Jacksonville falls, mostly because of the tiebreaker switch. The teams they’ve lost to don’t look amazing. If Indianapolis starts improving, it could help Jacksonville rise.

16

33.3

(1/3 – 2/3)

19

(Lost to BUF) It’s Thursday and Lane Kiffin is still there, isn’t he? What on earth is it about his contract that keeps him there? This guy’s nerves must be made of steel to be able to handle that working environment for so long. Actually, maybe that’s Davis’s strategy, to just leak news about firing him every week and then hope Kiffin has a nervous breakdown. At any rate, I really don’t think this team sucks this season.

24

33.3

(1/3 – 2/3)

20

(Beat CAR) Word is that Frerotte was no big improvement?

20

30.0

(0/5 – 2/5)

21

(Lost to JAC) Indianapolis falls on the tiebreaker switch and the loss to Jacksonville.

14

25.0

(0/6 – 3/6)

22

(Lost to NYG) Cincinnati holds steady, although they did give the NY Giants a tough time.

22

0.0

(0/3 – 3/3)

23

(Lost to SD) The NY Jets get demolished this week. What are the chances that Favre getting more comfortable will improve this team? It seems that their weaknesses are elsewhere.

23

20.0

(0/5 – 3/5)

24

(Beat KC) They’ve beaten up on a couple of super bad teams, but I do think it’s encouraging that a rookie quarterback is able to perform well against even any NFL defense. The NFL defenses aren’t separated by much.

29

28.6

(2/7 – 5/7)

25

(Beat NE) Kind of a slap in the face for beating New England to yield a reward of shedding a NY Jets beatloss.

31

20.0

(0/5 – 3/5)

26

(Lost to TEN) How did this team get mired in low expectations land again?

9

0.0

(0/4 – 4/4)

27

(Lost to BAL) It’s true that the teams that have beaten them might still be very good, but the losses are piling up.

12

0.0

(0/4 – 4/4)

28

(Beat STL) No great reward for beating St. Louis.

28

16.7

(1/6 – 5/6)

29

(Lost to TB) Chicago’s fall is partly because of losing their beatwin over Indianapolis. They also shed their beatloss to Carolina.

13

18.8

(0/8 – 5/8)

30

(Lost to SEA) Right now it seems that…

32

0.0

(0/8 – 8/8)

31

(Lost to ATL) …these are the three teams…

25

0.0

(0/9 – 9/9)

32

(Lost to SF) …that will be swapping places all season long.

30

0.0

(0/10 – 10/10)

9 Responses to 2008 NFL Week 3 Beatpaths Rankings

  1. The MOOSE says:

    Since you finally got into the Panel o’ Experts, shouldn’t you keep the same tie-breaking system throughout the year? For consistency’s sake? Plus, since I’ll be posting my rankings anyway, we’ll be able to look at them all and compare them.

    Have you ever gone back through past seasons to see how your method performs in the long term? It would give us more data to look at when evaluating results.

  2. ThunderThumbs says:

    I know this method is reasonably strong compared to the other eight or ten methods I’ve tried. Tested over a three-season period. Although I haven’t gone much further back than that. Did you use a particular data source to get all the wins/losses over the past many seasons? That’s the main thing I’d need, just something to parse. And some spare time. 🙂

    I think King doesn’t care as long as I just post predictions each week. All things considered, I’d like to have a yearly official strategy though – I just ran out of time this week to switch it.

  3. The MOOSE says:

    I went straight to NFL.com and copy-pasted the yearly results into a text file for me to parse. I set it up so that I can select any year, and any week within that year. I haven’t used this ability for much study yet, other than that Super Bowl article I wrote last year.

  4. Justin says:

    Those three bottom teams could actually all finish 0-16 since none of them play each other this year (Cleveland, too). Wouldn’t that be something? CLE, DET, STL don’t play the AFC West; KC, DET, STL don’t play the AFC North; KC, CLE, STL don’t play the NFC North; and KC, CLE, DET don’t play the NFC West. Because of scheduling, I think 4 is the maximum number of teams that could possibly go 0-16 (or 16-0) in a season.

  5. Justin says:

    Also, I think at least some (possibly all) of your “last week’s rank”s are from 2 weeks ago. Seattle didn’t drop from 17 to 28 after beating STL; they were already at 28 after losing to SF last week.

  6. ThunderThumbs says:

    Ahh! Shoot, you’re right – I forgot to update the rankings. I’ll swap that column out as soon as I get a chance.

  7. Kenneth says:

    On tiebreakers, I’m with TT. It’s not like anyone else is hewn to holding their ways of picking the same the rest of the season (well, I guess his daughter is).

    Justin: You’re right, there can only be 4 0-16 teams in any one season, just like there can only be 4 16-0 teams in any season. Not only that, there can only be 2 teams in either conference that go undefeated. This is because each team must play their own division and all of one other division; so, if they go 0-16, that means there are 2 divisions in that conference where every team (except one) is guaranteed a win. So each winless team takes up two divisions, and there are 4 divisions, so by the pigeonhole principle (kinda) there can only be 2.

    (I figured this out once when I was trying to determine if it was possible for any one team to go 20-0 in a season, counting the playoffs. It’s not.)

    It would be amazing to see that many teams go 0-16; it would be amazing to see any team do it, since it hasn’t happened in awhile. Personally, I’d rank them, in order of decreasing probability of going 0-16: KC, STL, DET, and CLE. I actually think STL is a worse team than KC, but the Chiefs schedule is brutal, and the Rams at least have the whole NFC West to try.

    Quick question: does anyone know what the tiebreaker for the number one pick would be in that case? Something based on point differential, I’d assume?

  8. Kenneth says:

    Well, shows what I know. What happened to your boys, TT?

  9. ThunderThumbs says:

    Ooof. Well, Huard is better than their other QB, but it was Larry Johnson that killed them. I guess the Broncos offense has to play a flawless game in order to rise above their defense. Even with … five?… turnovers, they were not in a bad position late in the game, down seven and needing a stop, two different times. But that defense…

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