2008 NFL Week 4 Beatpaths Rankings

Rank Team Notes Last Week BeatPower

1

(Bye) The NY Giants are able to hold on to the top spot in the bye.

1

100.0

(21/21 – 0/21)

2

(Beat DAL) Every season I’m mystified by the NFC East. Specifically, the NFC East’s performance, versus the mass media’s perception of their performance. Since the teams are in the biggest media markets, it’s no wonder this happens, but it seems this division is the one that is least connected to convention wisdom. Washington with a “surprise” win over Dallas, even though they were very closely ranked before this game.

3

95.2

(20/21 – 1/21)

3

(Lost to KC) Denver’s previous victories were considered strong enough that the loss to Kansas City is considered largely a fluke (even though we don’t have beatflukes enabled in our graph system). Still, I’m expecting them to fall eventually, given their defensive struggles.

4

100.0

(22/22 – 0/22)

4

(Beat SF) Their victories over Tampa Bay and San Francisco are both considered strong victories, so New Orleans rises more.

6

84.2

(16/19 – 3/19)

5

(Beat ATL) Carolina rises significantly due to their beatwin over San Diego, although we’ll see about San Diego’s placement.

10

89.3

(11/14 – 0/14)

6

(Beat OAK) San Diego’s win over the Jets pushes them up significantly, due to the Jets’ win over… Arizona? For those of us who believe the vertical pecking order of the NFC West is a bit of a false graph advantage and will soon collapse, it will mean that San diego doesn’t have as much support underneath them as it currently seems. They’ll need more quality wins soon.

17

80.0

(8/10 – 2/10)

7

(Beat GB) Strictly based off my memory of past seasons, it seems Tampa Bay’s beatwins are currently under-rated. But that’s why they keep playing every season.

15

76.5

(13/17 – 4/17)

8

(Beat STL) A rather meaningless victory over St. Louis holds Buffalo steady.

8

100.0

(6/6 – 0/6)

9

(Lost to WAS) Dallas tumbles after the loss to Washington.

2

83.3

(10/12 – 2/12)

10

(Beat MIN) Tennessee roughly holds steady after defeating Minnesota.

9

100.0

(5/5 – 0/5)

11

(Beat ARI) The Jets rise significantly (finally!) after pasting Arizona. Well done!

23

65.0

(6/10 – 3/10)

12

(Beat PHI) Chicago doesn’t have as much beatpath data right now given a beatloop they’ve already fallen into, but the Philadelphia win is considered quality. And perhaps should be considered of higher quality than it currently is, more on this downthread.

29

56.7

(7/15 – 5/15)

13

(Bye) New England roughly holds steady on the bye.

12

66.7

(1/3 – 0/3)

14

(Beat HOU) Jacksonville slowly climbs up the rankings.

18

50.0

(2/4 – 2/4)

15

(Lost to CHI) Philadelphia tumbles a lot. Partly because their win over Pittsburgh doesn’t hold them up near as much as it used to. Given Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh both “seeming” underrated, at least to my eyes, I’d expect Philadelphia to rise if their Pittsburgh win doesn’t get beatlooped away.

5

46.2

(6/13 – 7/13)

16

(Lost to NYJ) Arizona starts tumbling back towards their rightful place in the graph. Again we’re reminded how a vertical portion of a graph doesn’t necessarily mean that the highest teams in the chain are better… it just means there are more detailed and fine gradations between the teams in terms of quality.

7

45.5

(5/11 – 6/11)

17

(Bye) Indianapolis manages to rise a bit on the bye, from other shifting graph dynamics.

21

25.0

(0/6 – 3/6)

18

(Lost to TB) Green Bay falls a bit more from the loss. It’s hard to judge their rightful place – the press really built them up for a few weeks, but they don’t currently have a lot of quality in their beatpaths.

13

25.0

(2/8 – 6/8)

19

(Beat BAL) Pittsburgh falls on the win. This is the other main curiosity of the graph for me this week. Pittsburgh has a straight beatpath chain to every team in their division, but none of these teams have beaten anyone of quality outside their own division. So Pittsburgh has no big reward for their division placement. Cincinnati losing to Cleveland is a big part of this. Plus, Pittsburgh has a beatloss to a possibly good team that unfortunately still has a long beatpath above them. So they seem a bit low to me in the graph/rankings right now.

14

33.3

(4/12 – 8/12)

20

(Lost to SD) Oakland holds roughly stead from an expected loss.

19

10.0

(0/5 – 4/5)

21

(Lost to CAR) Atlanta’s losses are to pretty good teams, at least for now… still a lot of room for this team to be defined.

24

25.0

(2/8 – 6/8)

22

(Lost to NO) San Francisco slips a bit on the loss to New Orleans. They do seem to roughly be a third quartile team to me.

16

27.3

(3/11 – 8/11)

23

(Lost to PIT) Baltimore is partially victimized by the same graph dynamics that hurt Pittsburgh. They’re penalized by the loss a bit more than they should be in my mind, just due to us being in the early part of the schedule.

11

18.2

(2/11 – 9/11)

24

(Bye) Miami holds steady on the bye.

25

6.2

(0/8 – 7/8)

25

(Lost to TEN) Minnesota slips slightly on the loss. Beatloops have affected their placement in that they currently have no beatwins supporting them.

20

13.6

(0/11 – 8/11)

26

(Beat DEN) Kansas City’s win over Denver immediately gets beatlooped away, but they are able to shed their beatloss to Oakland, which helps them slightly.

31

5.6

(0/9 – 8/9)

27

(Beat CIN) Cleveland’s win doesn’t really help themselves, but it does hurt Cincinnati.

27

9.1

(1/11 – 10/11)

28

(Bye) Seattle holds steady on the bye.

28

9.1

(1/11 – 10/11)

29

(Lost to CLE) Last week, I noted that Cincinnati had only lost to undefeated teams. That’s far from true now.

22

0.0

(0/12 – 12/12)

30

(Lost to JAC) Houston slips more on the loss to Jacksonville.

26

0.0

(0/12 – 12/12)

31

(Bye) Detroit rises on the bye due to… not losing again.

32

0.0

(0/13 – 13/13)

32

(Lost to BUF) St. Louis reclaims its rightful place in the graph.

30

0.0

(0/15 – 15/15)

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