As always, the picks can be derived from the beatpaths rankings, depending on which teams are ranked ahead.
| Rank | Team | Notes | Last Week | BeatPower |
1 |
 |
(Lost to STL) Washington was able to hold on to their stronger beatpaths this week despite losing to St. Louis, which they still have an alternate beatpath to. However, as MOOSE points out in the comments, their position is rather precarious right now – another loss could send them tumbling. |
3 |
97.4(18/19 – 0/19) |
2 |
 |
(Beat CAR) Tampa Bay has managed to accumulate some quality beatwins, and doesn’t have a beatloss to Denver anymore. |
4 |
80.6(11/18 – 0/18) |
3 |
 |
(Lost to JAC) Denver loses their beatwin over Tampa Bay, but is still ranked highly due to their (controversial) beatwin over San Diego. |
2 |
82.1(9/14 – 0/14) |
4 |
 |
(Beat CIN) The NY Jets rise again, due to some surprisingly strong looking beatpaths underneath them. |
5 |
94.7(17/19 – 0/19) |
5 |
 |
(Beat DAL) The Arizona Cardinals are one of those surprising beatpaths, after defeating Dallas this week. |
8 |
88.9(16/18 – 2/18) |
6 |
 |
(Bye) The teams of Jay Cutler, Matt Leinart (not really), and Vince Young (not really) are all in the top six this week. |
9 |
100.0(9/9 – 0/9) |
7 |
 |
(Lost to TB) Carolina’s beatwin over San Diego is retained, so they rise even after losing to Tampa Bay. |
11 |
75.0(8/14 – 1/14) |
8 |
 |
(Bye) I think it is mainly Indianapolis’ rise that is pushing Buffalo up, via Jacksonville. |
12 |
76.9(10/13 – 3/13) |
9 |
 |
(Beat NE) San Diego gets a big bump from defeating New England, changing many of the graph dynamics. |
16 |
66.7(7/12 – 3/12) |
10 |
 |
(Lost to ARI) Dallas still has strength underneat them, despite losing to Arizona. |
6 |
66.7(7/12 – 3/12) |
11 |
 |
(Beat CHI) Another solid win for Atlanta. It still seems as if Chicago might be a pretty good team this year, so I don’t find myself wanting to discount this beatwin in my head. |
15 |
64.3(3/7 – 1/7) |
12 |
 |
(Beat DEN) Jacksonville sheds a major beatpath through a very long beatloop with Denver, and is able to rise significantly. |
27 |
53.1(6/16 – 5/16) |
13 |
 |
(Lost to SD) New England slips another few spots from their loss to San Diego |
10 |
54.5(5/11 – 4/11) |
14 |
 |
(Bye) Pittsburgh is helped by Jacksonville defeating Denver. They have no beatlosses anymore, although their beatwins are still seen to be of fairly weak quality. |
17 |
75.0(5/10 – 0/10) |
15 |
 |
(Lost to CLE) The NY Giants lose their beatwin over Washington due to the upset, which was what was propping them up in the rankings. They take a major tumble. |
1 |
75.0(3/6 – 0/6) |
16 |
 |
(Beat OAK) New Orleans shifts around in the rankings a bit mostly due to distant graph dynamics. No great reward for defeating Oakland at this point. |
14 |
65.0(5/10 – 2/10) |
17 |
 |
(Beat SF) Philadelphia is hurt by Arizona defeating Dallas, even as they manage to shed their beatloss to Chicago. They seem to be very highly ranked according to their other stats, but I think that also tends to be common for Philadelphia. |
13 |
50.0(4/13 – 4/13) |
18 |
 |
(Beat DET) Minnesota holds steady after defeating low-ranked Detroit. |
18 |
50.0(1/9 – 1/9) |
19 |
 |
(Lost to ATL) While Atlanta is seen as pretty good, Chicago takes a major tumble after losing to them, partly due to losing their beatwin over Philadelphia. |
7 |
45.0(1/10 – 2/10) |
20 |
 |
(Beat SEA) Green Bay doesn’t have any quality beatwins anymore – Seattle is looking pretty lousy. |
19 |
45.8(3/12 – 4/12) |
21 |
 |
(Beat BAL) Indianapolis manages to climb a bit, although a win over Baltimore, according to the graph, isn’t as impressive as many in the media believed. |
29 |
46.4(5/14 – 6/14) |
22 |
 |
(Bye) Kansas City holds steady on the bye. |
22 |
7.1(0/7 – 6/7) |
23 |
 |
(Lost to IND) For now, Baltimore is propped up a bit by their beatpath, so they hold steady despite the loss by Indianapolis. |
23 |
20.0(2/10 – 8/10) |
24 |
 |
(Beat MIA) Houston finally gets a win after a week of the press calling them the best 1-4 team in the NFL. |
31 |
11.1(1/9 – 8/9) |
25 |
 |
(Lost to PHI) San Francisco drops five on the loss to Philadelphia. |
20 |
21.4(3/14 – 11/14) |
26 |
 |
(Beat NYG) It’ll be interesting how surprising this win ends up looking at the end of the season. It seemed like they developed a good game plan – so much of the NY Giants strength is about their pass rush, and it sounds like Cleveland neutralized it pretty well. |
26 |
16.7(1/12 – 9/12) |
27 |
 |
(Lost to HOU) Miami’s in a lot of beatloops, so we could see them jump around a bit more – teams with erratic identities tend to do that – but for now they’re ranked pretty low. |
21 |
9.1(0/11 – 9/11) |
28 |
 |
(Lost to NO) Oakland slips another few spots after losing to New Orleans. |
24 |
5.0(0/10 – 9/10) |
29 |
 |
(Lost to NYJ) No great penalty for losing to the NY Jets, but they don’t have much further to fall. |
28 |
0.0(0/12 – 12/12) |
30 |
 |
(Lost to GB) Seattle with another loss. I’ll be in Seattle this weekend and will try to make them better. |
25 |
6.2(1/16 – 15/16) |
31 |
 |
(Beat WAS) Turnovers! This was the biggest upset of the year, but also easier to overlook than the MIA->NE one, since that one didn’t seem all that flukey. |
32 |
0.0(0/16 – 16/16) |
32 |
 |
(Lost to MIN) Detroit falls into the final spot in the rankings. But they got rid of Millen, and got some great draft picks for Roy Williams – it can only get better from here! |
30 |
0.0(0/17 – 17/17) |
The Jets’ win over Arizona is actually almost the enirety of the “surprisingly strong looking beatpaths underneath them”. All their strength derives from that one win.
This is a really interesting case and will continue to be interesting to follow moving forward. The iterative method threw the Arizona game out and considers the Jets as a middle-of-the-pack team, with credit only for their win over the Bengals.
Both methods favor the Jets over Oakland this week, although it’s a game for a beatpath in the iterative approach, while an Oakland win creates a new loop in the standard approach (and causes the Jets to topple).
Assuming the Jets can avoid an upset, the real test comes in week 9 when they play the Bills. The iterative method would favor Buffalo while the standard method favors New York.
Week 6 was slightly more volatile than Week 5, but still less than Weeks 4 and 3.
Week 6:
2+2+1+1+3+3+4+4+7+4+4+15+3+3+14+2+4+0+12+1+8+0+0+7+5+0+6+4+1+5+1+2 = 128
Week 5: 124
Week 4: 152
Week 3: 202