Beatpaths was 10-4 last week, a much better week, for a total record of 60-42. My “personal picks” that conflict with the Beatpaths picks were 1-2, so I’m back to even for the year at 7-7.
BUFFALO at Miami: Buffalo has a beatpath to Miami through the AFC South. If Miami wins, it would hurt Buffalo as their highest quality remaining beatwin would be over San Diego, who isn’t looking too good right now.
Oakland at BALTIMORE: Both teams are playing for a beatpath, but Baltimore is favored.
Arizona at CAROLINA: Could this be the game of the week? This is #4 at #3. I sure wouldn’t have predicted this a year ago. The two teams are playing for a beatpath that would make either team look even stronger. Carolina is favored.
TAMPA BAY at Dallas: Another good game. Both teams are playing for a beatpath, and Tampa Bay is favored.
SAN DIEGO at New Orleans: This is a compelling matchup to me. The two teams seem similar to me, except I like New Orleans and don’t like San Diego. And then there’s also the quarterback connection. Both teams are playing for a beatpath, but San Diego is favored. I will personally pick New Orleans.
ATLANTA at Philadelphia: Atlanta is actually highly favored, but both teams are playing for a beatpath. If Philadelphia wins, it could have a craaaaazy affect on the beatpath graph. PHI->PIT->JAC->DEN->TB could re-emerge. In my variant, Philadelphia could then be ranked the best team in the league. One of those cases where two identities of a team are warring. Which seems suitable for Philadelphia. I will personally pick Philadelphia.
Kansas City at NY JETS: Both teams are playing for a beatpath, but the NY Jets are favored. This is a closer matchup than you’d expect, given the Brett Favre reality distortion field.
St Louis at NEW ENGLAND: Can St. Louis do it three weeks in a row? Please? It wouldn’t be counted as a fluke victory, though – St. Louis would loop away all of its low-quality vanquishers. New England is favored.
WASHINGTON at Detroit: #1 at #32! Washington has a beatpath to Detroit.
Cincinnati at HOUSTON: Both teams are playing for a beatpath, but Houston is favored.
Cleveland at JACKSONVILLE: Jacksonville has a beatpath to Cleveland.
NY Giants at PITTSBURGH: A very closely ranked game, although both are ranked in the middle of the league. Pittsburgh is favored.
Seattle at SAN FRANCISCO: San Francisco has a beatpath to Seattle.
Indianapolis at TENNESSEE: Tennessee has a beatpath to Indianapolis.
It’s hard to make out this year. Another 6-7 start for us. Standard matched the official picks perfectly as it usually will. Iterative hit on NO over SD, but missed KC over NYJ. Weighted wins again, and I feel I report this too much. Weighted differed from the official picks by winning NYG over PIT and PHI over ATL, but losing ARI over CAR. All methods are picking TEN over IND tonight.
My paths are up: http://www.twomuffin.com/BeatPaths.htm
There is a new page for the NCAA Div I-A standings accessible from the menu. Commentary with the official graph is posted.
The standard graph has really collapsed under the weight of so many inconsistent results.
Discrepancies of more than 3 (standard ranking -> iterative ranking):
NYG 12->1
NYJ 15.5->29
MIA 20->16
KC 21->30
CIN 26->31
It’s interesting to see the New York teams sent in opposite directions by the iterative algorithm.
In college, Penn State finally proves they belong in the elite.
Interesting how Cincinnati is 26th in the rankings for the Standard method in MOOSE’s graphs, when they haven’t managed to win a game yet. I understand that in general the ratings pull teams toward the middle, so it’s not that strange. The teams they’ve lost to are higher up on the graph, so the Bengals aren’t getting pushed down by those losses like Detroit is. Still, it just seems odd.
Just like the top teams make it to the top by beating teams that have beaten teams, the bottom teams make it to the bottom by losing to teams that have lost to teams.
It took NE until week 9 last year to get to the top of the pile for good during their undefeated regular season. Chances are, if CIN continues to lose, they’ll eventually find their way to the cellar, as long as DET hasn’t locked the door on it already.