Monthly Archives: November 2008

Pick “Confidence” for Week 13

Tom here. A little late in the day, but I thought I’d continue to look at BeatPower and the confidence of the model in making each week’s picks. I take the standard picks for Week 13, and then compare the BeatPower numbers for each team from the most recent rankings. The greater the difference between [...]

Ranking Stability – Week 12

Continuing to track the stability of the rankings from week to week, here are the numbers based on the Week 12 rankings. From Week 3 through Week 12: 3 – 202 4 – 152 5 – 124 6 – 128 7 – 90 8 – 108 9 – 138 10 – 43 11 – 59 [...]

2008 NFL Week 13 Picks

The Three Thanksgiving picks were made earlier this week, but we’re bumping the entry to get fresh views. Incidentally, if we pay attention to the Thanksgiving games, things are a bit different right now. Dallas is actually ranked #1 due to shedding the Arizona beatloss. None of the picks below are contradicted, though. TENNESSEE at [...]

2008 NFL Week 12 Beatpaths Rankings

Bonjour again, my beatpath ranking fans! Kenneth here handling ranking commentary once again. I was adequate enough at this last week to go around twice. This week, I actually attended a game in person (STL-CHI), which was fun but means I didn’t get to see as much of what went on around the NFL. Still, [...]

2008 NFL Week 12 Beatpaths Graph

The picks were 10-6 this week. Revisiting the NY Giants and the Denver Broncos situations this week – the Giants get a quality beatwin which puts them very high up in the rankings anyway, and judging by the confidence rankings from this last week and the outcome of the Oakland game, maybe the Broncos were [...]

Pick “Confidence” for Week 12

I thought I’d briefly revisit the results of the BeatPower confidence method of ranking picks. As you can see, the picks the model had higher confidence in all went as predicted. All of the incorrect picks were clustered in the bottom half of the chart, comprising all of the low confidence picks. Matchup(Winner-Loser) “Confidence”(out of [...]

Pick “Confidence” using BeatPower

Tom here again. Another subject I’ve been investigating in the comments for the past few weeks is ranking of each week’s picks by the model’s “confidence” in a win or loss. TT gave us the official Beatpaths model’s picks for Week 12, but these picks treat each prediction as equally valid. I’m interested in figuring [...]

Ranking Stability

First, hello to everyone. My name is Tom, and like Kenneth, I’ve also been asked by TT to help out with contributions. For several weeks I’ve been examining the “stability” of the rankings produced by the beatpaths method. In theory, as more data is fed into the beatpaths system, we should have a better and [...]

2008 NFL Week 12 Picks

Beatpaths was 12-3-1 last week, for a total record of 96-63-1. My “personal picks” were 1-1, so I’m at 13-11 for the year. Cincinnati at PITTSBURGH: Pittsburgh has a beatpath to Cincinnati and is favored. If Cincinnati wins, it creates a season split with no real change in the graph. New England at MIAMI: Miami [...]