2008 NFL Week 10 Beatpath Graph

The picks were 9-5 this week. One thing that is interesting is that there would have been a lot of beatflukes up until last week, but this week there would be only one. I think that means the graph might be getting more stable now.

Another thing I noticed is that right after the Denver win, with only that additional game figured in, the rankings changed quite a bit. But with the rest of the week’s matches included, the rankings are actually fairly static – not as many huge leaps and jumps as I’ve seen in prior weeks.

2008-10-Nfl-Clean

5 Responses to 2008 NFL Week 10 Beatpath Graph

  1. The MOOSE says:

    My graphs are up – NEW SITE: http://www.beatgraphs.com

    Features:
    All 3 graphs for every week this year.
    Historical search, now goes back to 2004.
    Helpful descriptions of how the process works.
    NCAA Division I-A Football rankings.
    Forums for discussing old results and new ideas.

    Things to come:
    More NFL history to be loaded going back to 1970.
    Other leagues may be added – NBA, NHL, NCAA basketball.

    Doktarr and TT, you have reserved slots as moderators on the forums should you choose to claim them.

  2. Tom says:

    I think this week, despite many of the close picks, provides considerable support for a “confidence” ranking of picks based on beatpower. Based on my original ranking of the picks, we can see that the incorrect picks are strongly clustered in the low-confidence bottom half:

    NY Jets-St. Louis 100.0 (100.0-0.0) CORRECT
    Carolina-Oakland 97.7 (100.0-2.3) CORRECT
    Arizona-San Francisco 84.0 (90.0-6.0) CORRECT
    Atlanta-New Orleans 54.6 (72.0-17.4) CORRECT
    Baltimore-Houston 38.4 (84.4-46.0) CORRECT
    Miami-Seattle 33.3 (40.4-7.1) CORRECT
    Pittsburgh-Indianapolis 32.4 (91.7-59.3) WRONG
    Tennessee-Chicago 29.2 (100.0-70.8) CORRECT
    Jacksonville-Detroit 28.0 (28.0-0.0) CORRECT
    Cleveland-Denver 14.9 (38.9-24.0) WRONG
    Green Bay-Minnesota 14.5 (66.7-52.2) WRONG
    NY Giants-Philadelphia 5.6 (77.8-72.2) CORRECT
    Buffalo-New England 5.4 (36.0-30.6) WRONG
    Kansas City-San Diego 0.3 (7.1-6.8) WRONG

    I suggest that this method be adopted as the official pick ranking for beatpaths.

  3. ThunderThumbs says:

    Very cool Tom – you want posting privileges to post this stuff on the main page? Go ahead and drop me an email through curtsiffert.com so I have your email address.

  4. doktarr says:

    Just so that it’s said before tonight – the Jets have a long beatpath to New England, and are heavily favored.

    The iterative algorithm ranks the Jets much, much lower, and as such has this game very close. The teams are playing for a beatpath. Moose’s path score rankings have the Jets very slightly favored, although it’s close enough that you would expect home field to swing it the other way.

  5. Kenneth says:

    Man, look at CHI vs. GB. Those two are almost in the exact same situation (only difference is GB is under ATL). That’s got to be a tough one for the rankings to pick.

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