Tom here. A little late in the day, but I thought I’d continue to look at BeatPower and the confidence of the model in making each week’s picks.
I take the standard picks for Week 13, and then compare the BeatPower numbers for each team from the most recent rankings. The greater the difference between the two teams’ Beatpower, the great “confidence” the model has in making the pick.
I’ve ranked the teams for Week 13 below, and I’m filling in the results as they come in. If the model is generally correct, the incorrect picks should be clustered toward the bottom of the chart.
(out of 100)
(predicted winner – predicted loser)
|Tampa Bay-New Orleans||-11.6||75.9-87.5||WRONG|
Again, note the two negative “confidence” picks at the bottom. Here the BeatPower method disagrees with the standard Beatpaths method. As was the case last week, the standard Beatpath method seems to do better when the two methods disagree.