Beatpaths

Here’s a quick runthrough of the entire 2008 season if we were to exclude all inter/intra matches. I’m also posting picks for each week, and the season performance compared to the current system’s season performance.
Week 1 had no games to exclude, so it’s identical to the Week 1 already posted – picks record 8-8.
Week [...]

Here’s a different beatpath graph for end of the 2008 season.
I’m surprised at how clear this looks. This is based off of my brainstorming post last week and the ensuing discussion. What I did for this graph is I simply excluded all matches this season that were intra-conference or inter-conference seeding [...]

Here is the final week’s beatpath graph. The picks were 9-7 this week.
The pecking order amongst playoff teams seems rather clear; the benefits of a vertical graph.
Stay tuned for another graph variant.

Tom here with the “confidence” rankings of this week’s picks, based on comparing the BeatPower scores of each match-up. The picks took a beating last week, but nevertheless, the high confidence picks still did twice as well as the low confidence picks, even on a bad week overall. Here are this week’s:

Matchup(Winner-Loser)
“Confidence”(out of [...]

As it turns out, given the number of upsets this past week, instability in the ranking has shot up again. Last week’s dip was only a temporary reprieve.

Cincinnati and Tampa Bay are the two “big movers” (teams moving 10+ ranking spots) this week. Also seeing significant shifts: Indianapolis, Carolina, and Dallas.

Kenneth here, saying welcome back to the Rankings! There’s been a lot of activity on the site lately, and a lot of talk about how to improve the formula for beatloop removal and ranking, but for now we’re using the old reliable. And speaking of old reliable…

Rank
Team
Notes
Last Week
BeatPower

1

(Lost to SEA) Guess Who! [...]

And it’s the final week of the official picks. We just got pasted in week 16 – the picks went 6-10, for a total record of 141-98-1. I was 2-2 on the personal side, which means I am dead even at 18-18. So far I’ve only been able to match the performance [...]

We didn’t get quite into examining the playoff picture, but here’s how we normally do it. We look at the rankings, and find the highest ranked team from each division, and then the remaining two highest ranked teams from each conference. For Week 17 (before 17’s games), the playoff picture looks like this:
AFC:
1. [...]

Zooming out as I’m apt to do, another quick/reminder exploration of the various algorithms. This is restricted entirely to the graph methods.
The goal here has always been to create a pecking order of the teams, based off of wins and losses and nothing else. This means a DAG – a directed acyclic graph. [...]

Well.
I have had quite the crisis of confidence this week with the beatpath graph and the algorithm, all because of the freaking NY Jets.
There’s no way the NY Jets should be ranked #1, I thought. There’s no way they should be at the top of the beatpath graph, with a beatpath [...]