Pick Confidence – Week 17

Tom here with the “confidence” rankings of this week’s picks, based on comparing the BeatPower scores of each match-up. The picks took a beating last week, but nevertheless, the high confidence picks still did twice as well as the low confidence picks, even on a bad week overall. Here are this week’s:

(out of 100)
BeatPower comparison
(predicted winner – predicted loser)
Pittsburgh-Cleveland 76.5 86.5-10.0 CORRECT
Baltimore-Jacksonville 63.1 80.4-17.3 CORRECT
Cincinnati-Kansas City 57.0 59.1-2.1 CORRECT
NY Jets-Miami 55.0 98.2-43.2 WRONG
Atlanta-St. Louis 52.5 52.5-0.0 CORRECT
Arizona-Seattle 48.7 52.5-3.8 CORRECT
New England-Buffalo 43.8 70.6-26.8 CORRECT
Tampa Bay-Oakland 39.7 47.2-7.5 WRONG
Denver-San Diego 35.7 76.3-40.6 WRONG
Carolina-New Orleans 35.2 77.5-42.3 CORRECT
Dallas-Philadelphia 27.0 72.7-45.7 WRONG
Washington-San Francisco 24.3 54.3-30.0 WRONG
NY Giants-Minnesota 13.7 92.5-78.8 WRONG
Green Bay-Detroit 11.1 11.1-0.0 CORRECT
Houston-Chicago 9.0 69.0-60.0 CORRECT
Tennessee-Indianapolis 8.8 96.3-87.5 WRONG

3 Responses to Pick Confidence – Week 17

  1. doktarr says:

    Iterative had Chicago over Houston; other than that the picks were the same.

    MIN->NYG and IND->TEN were the only games where a team resting starters for the playoffs lost. Of course, in Tennessee’s case, their opponent was resting starters, too… but I think you can make an argument for ignoring those games.

  2. Boga says:

    Yeah, I would have no qualms about not having those games calculated.


  3. doktarr says:

    After looking at the new graphs over at beatgraphs.com, I would definitely like to see the rankings without MIN->NYG. Seeing the Vikings all the way up there based on a game that was meaningless for the Giants is sort of ridiculous. In iterative, this also drags Atlanta up, because they retain their win over Minnesota. If Minnesota’s best wins are still Houston and Arizona, the whole graph looks a lot more reasonable.

    The IND->TEN game is much less disruptive, as all it does is remove Tennessee’s beatpath to Indianapolis. Those two teams are both sitting on the top of the rankings with or without that game.

    Random aside: could this be the first time that all four road teams were favored on wild card weekend? It’s pretty crazy.

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