Here’s an experiment I tried yesterday, spurred on by discussions with Tom and Ken. If you collapse all NFC South games together, this is what you get. You can see that Denver and Dallas’ rankings are pretty much because of their success against this division.
Here’s the graph for Week 14 – the picks were 9-7 this week. Topic for the week, is the NFC South as strong as it appears to be?
Tom here with the “confidence” ratings for this week’s picks, based on comparing the BeatPower ratings for each team. The greater the difference between BeatPower scores, the greater the expectation of the model that the pick is correct. The numbers are taken from the rankings from last week. Matchup(Winner-Loser) “Confidence”(out of 100) BeatPower comparison(predicted winner [...]
Two weekends ago, the picks were 10-6, for a total record of 106-69-1. I was 1-1 on the personal picks, or 14-12 for the year. Last week the picks were 11-5, for a total record of 117-74-1. I was 1-2 on the personal picks, or 15-14 for the year. I’m finding it hard to beat [...]
Another slight uptick in ranking volatility this week. Unlike the last two weeks, there were two “big movers” (teams whose rankings shifted by 10+ places). The Cardinals fell from grace—from #5 to #16—after losing to the Eagles, while the Broncos shot up from #27 to #17 upon beating the Jets. As more information is fed [...]
Hey gang! Kenneth here, back with the rankings. Some surprises this week; let’s get to it! Rank Team Notes Last Week BeatPower 1 (Beat SEA) Surprise! Admit it, you didn’t have the ‘Boys here. So, what happened? Surprisingly enough, Dallas benefited a great deal from Philly’s beatdown of Arizona on Thanksgiving–it removed their one beatloss. [...]
The picks were 11-5 this week. Check out Denver!