Monthly Archives: January 2009

Pick Confidence – Conference Championships

Tom here with the confidence rankings for the two conference championship games: Matchup(Winner-Loser) “Confidence”(out of 100) BeatPower comparison(predicted winner – predicted loser) Result Philadelphia-Arizona 18.6 90.0-71.4 WRONG Pittsburgh-Baltimore 4.9 85.7-80.8 CORRECT Both of these picks conform well to the conventional wisdom. One curious note: Beatpaths has a 1-6 record of predicting the results of Philadelphia […]

Ranking Stability – Divisional Round

Tom here with the Beatpaths ranking stability. Last week, the results of only four wildcard round games, instead of the normal 16, nevertheless produced significant changes in the rankings. This week, the four divisional round games produced the opposite results: only three pairs of teams switch places. The total change in ranks was a mere […]

2008 NFL Divisional Beatpaths Rankings

Hey gang, Kenneth back here again with the rankings. I tell you–watching those wildcard games made me sick. Or maybe it was the infection in my sinuses. Whatever it was, it totally messed with my schedule, so the rankings are late this week. My apologies, but I’ll make up for it with poor quality–you know […]

Pick Confidence – Divisional Playoffs

Tom here with the confidence rankings for the four divisional playoff games this week: Matchup(Winner-Loser) “Confidence”(out of 100) BeatPower comparison(predicted winner – predicted loser) Result Pittsburgh-San Diego 63.2 85.7-22.5 CORRECT Carolina-Arizona 23.9 93.5-69.6 WRONG Tennessee-Baltimore 13.8 94.6-80.8 WRONG NY Giants-Philadelphia 2.3 92.3-90.0 WRONG Like last week, the BeatPower comparisons of the matchups produces picks that […]

2008 NFL Divisional Picks

I didn’t really give picks for the wildcard round since the season was over and since they were divinable by the rankings, but what the heck. The home teams are all favored this week. A rare week of harmony with the conventional wisdom. Baltimore at TENNESSEE: No change anywhere if Tennessee wins. If Baltimore wins, […]

Ranking Stability – Wildcard Week

Despite having only four games instead of the usual 16, the results this week still caused significant reordering of the ranks, especially among mid-ranked teams. I think this is a good illustration of just how sensitive Beatpaths rankings are to the strength of the field. The weeks in which rankings were more stable, despite having […]

2008 NFL Wildcard Beatpaths Rankings

Hey folks. I’m a little later getting these out, but hopefully you weren’t waiting for much. Most of these rankings are not exciting. As you might expect, teams did not move much. Anyway, here’s the rankings after the wildcard weekend: Rank Team Notes Last Week BeatPower 1 (Lost to SD) I don’t know if people […]

2008 NFL Regular Season Picks

This is a week late in review, but this thread is for discussion of picks records for the 2008 season. Beatpaths was 150-105-1 for 2008. My own personal picks, informed by beatpaths but occasionally overruled, helped by a 3-0 final week, were three games better, for 153-102-1. I believe King Kaufman got to 151-104-1 after […]