Beatpaths

Here’s the beatpath graph for after the conference games and before the Super Bowl!

Tom here with the confidence rankings for the two conference championship games:

Matchup(Winner-Loser)
“Confidence”(out of 100)
BeatPower comparison(predicted winner – predicted loser)
Result

Philadelphia-Arizona
18.6
90.0-71.4
WRONG

Pittsburgh-Baltimore
4.9
85.7-80.8
CORRECT

Both of these picks conform well to the conventional wisdom.
One curious note: Beatpaths has a 1-6 record of predicting the results of Philadelphia games since correctly picking their loss to Baltimore in Week 12. I’ve been [...]

Tom here with the Beatpaths ranking stability. Last week, the results of only four wildcard round games, instead of the normal 16, nevertheless produced significant changes in the rankings. This week, the four divisional round games produced the opposite results: only three pairs of teams switch places. The total change in ranks [...]

Hey gang, Kenneth back here again with the rankings. I tell you–watching those wildcard games made me sick. Or maybe it was the infection in my sinuses. Whatever it was, it totally messed with my schedule, so the rankings are late this week. My apologies, but I’ll make up for it [...]

Here’s the beatpath graph for after the divisional round. Looks like we’ve got a couple of exciting games coming up.

Tom here with the confidence rankings for the four divisional playoff games this week:

Matchup(Winner-Loser)
“Confidence”(out of 100)
BeatPower comparison(predicted winner – predicted loser)
Result

Pittsburgh-San Diego
63.2
85.7-22.5
CORRECT

Carolina-Arizona
23.9
93.5-69.6
WRONG

Tennessee-Baltimore
13.8
94.6-80.8
WRONG

NY Giants-Philadelphia
2.3
92.3-90.0
WRONG

Like last week, the BeatPower comparisons of the matchups produces picks that diverge from the conventional wisdom. The system is most confident about Pittsburgh beating San Diego, whereas most spreads seem to [...]

I didn’t really give picks for the wildcard round since the season was over and since they were divinable by the rankings, but what the heck.
The home teams are all favored this week. A rare week of harmony with the conventional wisdom.
Baltimore at TENNESSEE: No change anywhere if Tennessee wins. If Baltimore wins, [...]

Despite having only four games instead of the usual 16, the results this week still caused significant reordering of the ranks, especially among mid-ranked teams. I think this is a good illustration of just how sensitive Beatpaths rankings are to the strength of the field. The weeks in which rankings were more stable, [...]

Hey folks. I’m a little later getting these out, but hopefully you weren’t waiting for much. Most of these rankings are not exciting. As you might expect, teams did not move much. Anyway, here’s the rankings after the wildcard weekend:

Rank
Team
Notes
Last Week
BeatPower

1

(Lost to SD) I don’t know if people are going to [...]

This is a week late in review, but this thread is for discussion of picks records for the 2008 season.
Beatpaths was 150-105-1 for 2008. My own personal picks, informed by beatpaths but occasionally overruled, helped by a 3-0 final week, were three games better, for 153-102-1. I believe King Kaufman got to 151-104-1 [...]