Daily Archives: January 3, 2009

Pick Confidence – Wildcard Round

Tom once again—a bit late in the day, but I thought I’d get these up here as the games started in earnest. Matchup(Winner-Loser) “Confidence”(out of 100) BeatPower comparison(predicted winner – predicted loser) Result Indianapolis-San Diego 79.4 98.2-18.8 WRONG Baltimore-Miami 37.6 82.0-44.4 CORRECT Atlanta-Arizona 26.8 75.0-48.2 WRONG Minnesota-Philadelphia 26.8 83.9-57.1 WRONG Beatpaths seems much more confident […]

Ranking Stability – Disaggregated

Tom here again—I’ve disaggregated the ranking changes week-on-week by individual team here. Compare with the normal ranking stability graph and you can see how high instability weeks correlate with messy areas in this graph. The middle area of this graph shows much greater clarity because of the stability in rankings during that period. Finally, the […]

Ranking Stability – Regular Season Final

Tom here—the final week of the regular season calmed the rankings significantly. Only one “big mover” (teams moving 10+ ranks) this week, Denver, a team that has confounded the beatpaths system throughout the year. I first started looking into ranking stability on the intuition that the system ought to become more accurate at placing teams […]