Hey gang, Kenneth back here again with the rankings. I tell you–watching those wildcard games made me sick. Or maybe it was the infection in my sinuses. Whatever it was, it totally messed with my schedule, so the rankings are late this week. My apologies, but I’ll make up for it with poor quality–you know what, let’s just get to the rankings.
Unfortunately for this column, the games all went in the way that provided the least beatpath change, so there are almost no rankings changes–only 6 teams moved at all. So, these rankings won’t be talking much about the beatpaths view of these times. That’s how it goes when you get later in the playoffs.
| Rank | Team | Notes | Last Week | BeatPower |
1 |
 |
(Bye) The Dungy news surprised me a bit–just wasn’t expecting it, I guess. I guess they’ll do okay as long as they still have Peyton Manning and that OC who never seems to pursue a head coaching job (Moore–is that his name)? I’m not sure he’s a Hall of Fame coach right now, though. I mean, he certainly seems qualified, but there are coaches ahead of him–off the top of my head I would probably say Parcells, Belicheck, and Cowher–and there are a lot of coaches who seem right at that level–Schottenheimer, Holmgren, Shanahan, Reid or Fisher if they win a Super Bowl, Gruden if he lands on his feet–and how many coaches get voted into the Hall? I’m just saying, I think it’ll be harder than people think right now. |
1 |
96.3(25/27 – 0/27) |
2 |
 |
(Lost to PHI) Tough loss, but it doesn’t seem like the Giants should be disappointed. They had a good year, and this was a tough game, and no Plaxico hurt them. Sometimes it happens. They still have last year’s Super Bowl win to hold onto. |
2 |
92.3(22/26 – 0/26) |
3 |
 |
(Bye) Now the Jets get to deal with the Favre uncertainty problem. And unlike the Packers, they don’t seem to have a really good backup plan if he does quit. |
3 |
100.0(27/27 – 0/27) |
4 |
 |
(Lost to BAL) You knew it was going to be a hard fought, tight game. The good news for the Titans, I guess, is that it seems obvious how you can improve the team–improve the passing attack. Oh, and re-sign Haynesworth. |
4 |
94.6(26/28 – 1/28) |
5 |
 |
(Beat SD) Steelers beat the Chargers, and just gain a redundant beatpath. I’m a little surprised how far this team has been able to come–they don’t seem as strong as past Steelers teams. And yet they clearly are–they have the number 1 defense in the league. |
5 |
85.7(23/28 – 3/28) |
6 |
 |
(Beat TEN) The win causes a season split with the Titans, but the Titans have a redundant beatpath through the Steelers. I have to admit I’m rooting a bit for the Ravens here. I’m not sure why, but I think it’s because I find Ed Reed really exciting. |
6 |
80.8(20/26 – 4/26) |
7 |
 |
(Bye) Actual ranking movement! Yes, the Panther’s loss causes the Pats to move up a bit. Thrilling! |
8 |
83.3(20/24 – 4/24) |
8 |
 |
(Lost to ARI) As far as my eye can tell, the only actual change in the graph this week is the removal of the Panther’s beatwin over the Cards (replaced by one from the Giants to the Cards). That naturally makes the Panthers look worse, so they slip a bit. This loss seems like it should be a disappointment; I know the Cardinals are playing better, but Carolina should have been better. Watching Larry Fitzgerald run free reminded me of Steve Smith running through the Bears’ secondary in the ’05 playoffs, so there’s some poetic justice there. |
7 |
71.9(8/16 – 1/16) |
9 |
 |
(Beat NYG) The win just gets sucked up in redundant beatloops, so nothing changes here. I’m enjoying delusional Bears fans who think we’ll still have a chance at McNabb after this season. I presume Donovan and Philly have kissed and made up, at least for now? |
9 |
90.0(20/25 – 0/25) |
10 |
 |
(Beat CAR) Beating the Panthers gave the Cards a season split, removing a beatloss from the graph…but no real change in the rankings. I have to admit that I’m pulling for the Cardinals overall–something about the ulitmate underdog really appeals to me. |
10 |
71.4(19/28 – 7/28) |
11 |
 |
(Bye) Am I the only one who was surprised that a Dolphins assistant was getting head coaching interviews? Don’t you want to see guys for a few years at that level before you move on them? Or am I just really ignorant about the guy whose name I can’t remember? |
11 |
58.7(13/23 – 9/23) |
12 |
 |
(Bye) Another switch in the rankings. Folks, I’m just as clueless as you are. Best I can figure is that some of the underlying beatpower ratings changed, but how or why? You’ll have to ask TT. Meanwhile, dumping TO seems like an exciting move, so I hope they do it. |
13 |
52.5(10/20 – 9/20) |
13 |
 |
(Bye) The Vikings are probably going to have a hard time improving, because what they need to do is get a better QB, but it seems unlikely that you’ll get someone who will be definitely able to come in and handle the pressure. Maybe Cassel. But otherwise, you’re probably hoping for a Kerry Collins-like situation to happen where you bring in a retread and he does better than expected. |
12 |
64.6(10/24 – 3/24) |
14 |
 |
(Bye) So, wunderkid ends up in Denver. I wonder how much of a honeymoon he’ll get–there seems to be too much talent there to be down long. |
14 |
48.0(9/25 – 10/25) |
15 |
 |
(Bye) Meanwhile, Shanny the Younger lives on. Would Pops work under his kid? Would that be weird? It seems like it would be. |
15 |
58.3(9/18 – 6/18) |
16 |
 |
(Bye) I saw in an interview that Warren Sapp approves of the Marinelli hiring and thinks he’ll be able to get the full potential out of the Bears’ line, which is nice. Although I think it would be more fun if the Bears just hired Sapp as a coach. |
16 |
52.8(5/18 – 4/18) |
17 |
 |
(Bye) Here’s how bad it’s getting–I’m reading mock drafts to figure out what to say about teams. So, it seems like people want the 49ers to take a QB, huh? I’m not sure if I’d go that way–they don’t seem to be on their way to being a good offensive team–but if they really like the guy (whoever it is), I guess it would make sense. |
17 |
42.5(7/20 – 10/20) |
18 |
 |
(Bye) Where do the Falcons go from here? More offense or more defense? I’m guessing convention says D, but I think I’d probably want another weapon alongside Roddy White. |
18 |
41.3(7/23 – 11/23) |
19 |
 |
(Bye) Is it time to start wondering if Carson Palmer is ever going to be that guy again? Because I have worries. |
19 |
37.5(7/20 – 12/20) |
20 |
 |
(Bye) Didn’t see that one coming. The question is why now? What happened between the end of the season and now that made that move necessary? I assume there must have been something, otherwise, why the long wait? |
20 |
39.1(5/23 – 10/23) |
21 |
 |
(Bye) What if they did move to Toronto permanently? Would you still call them the Bills? The Toronto Bills? That’s awful. |
21 |
38.1(6/21 – 11/21) |
22 |
 |
(Bye) The Saints clearly need more D, which at least gives them flexibility. They can probably go after the best players available. Or, maybe even pick up Haynesworth? That would be scary. |
22 |
36.0(5/25 – 12/25) |
23 |
 |
(Lost to PIT) Oh yeah, the other team from last week! Well, the one game beatpaths picked right. Which is good, because it was a very confident pick. |
23 |
25.0(2/20 – 12/20) |
24 |
 |
(Bye) So what’s the current consensus on Jason Campbell? Is he going to be someone that can be counted on and built around, or are the Redskins going to have to start searching for another answer soon? |
24 |
18.4(1/19 – 13/19) |
25 |
 |
(Bye) I guess the benefit of getting a coach from the same tree as your previous one is that he’s going to implement the same scheme, so you can build with some of the players you have. So the Browns won’t be starting over completely, which seems good. |
25 |
14.7(0/17 – 12/17) |
26 |
 |
(Bye) The Raiders move up one spot, and this really confused me. Beatpower is the answer, but what’s the question? Well, I guess the question for that is why they moved up, and the real question is why the beatpower changed. Smooth talking there, Ken. |
27 |
19.0(0/21 – 13/21) |
27 |
 |
(Bye) Are the Jaguars still a threat to move to LA? I was having a heated discussion the other day with a coworker about realignment if that happened. He wanted to change everything so that the Rams would be in the NFC North, but I think that’s just because he hates having St. Louis being in the “west”. |
26 |
20.8(4/24 – 18/24) |
28 |
 |
(Bye) The thing about the Gruden and Dungy announcements is that it has made me wary that maybe there are still more firings to come. I’m not saying McCarthy would deserve it, but I could see something crazy like that happening. |
28 |
11.5(3/26 – 23/26) |
29 |
 |
(Bye) Of course, Edwards would be more likely to get dumped, now that he has a new GM. I don’t understand why teams hire coaches before GMs, or expect to keep the same coach across GMs–if the top guy had to change, doesn’t seem likely that the subordinates have to change too? |
29 |
2.2(0/23 – 22/23) |
30 |
 |
(Bye) Is there a more perfect fit in the draft right now than Seattle and Michael Crabtree? It almost makes too much sense to happen. |
30 |
5.8(1/26 – 24/26) |
31 |
 |
(Bye) I don’t know if I would go for a QB with the top pick. On the one hand, it seems like a disaster to throw someone into that situation, and the Lions will probably be picking high next year, too, when a lot of other good players are coming out. On the other hand, Calvin Johnson could be a young QBs best friend. |
31 |
0.0(0/25 – 25/25) |
32 |
 |
(Bye) While on the subject, as far as perfect fits go, the Rams and “best OT available” is always popular. The Orlando Pace era is over. |
32 |
1.9(0/26 – 25/26) |
To say that Schottenheimer, or Holmgren, or Gruden, or Reid or Fischer are in the same class as Dungy is way off base. Even Cowher – seriously, what did Cowher do better than Dungy? Name one thing. Unless your answer is “he coached two years more, total, he managed to lose a Super Bowl, and by the way he had two more losing seasons than Dungy did”, I don’t know what it is.
Even Parcells and Shannahan, both pretty same HOFers, can only claim two things on Dungy – they coached a lot longer, and they won one more Super Bowl. But really, isn’t 12 straight years as the most consistent, best coach in the league a sufficient case? He won a Super Bowl, so the resume is complete.
Among his contemporaries, only Belichick has a stronger case, thanks to the three titles. But he struggled in his first go-round, putting up losing seasons in 5 of his first 6 years. Not that he doesn’t belong in the hall, but again, nobody coached teams that were as consistently good as Dungy’s.
It’s easy to overlook just how exceptional Dungy has been. He’s in a class by himself. A quick overview of Dungy’s career:
- One of three people to win a SB as a player and a head coach.
- Among coaches with 3+ seasons, the best winning percentage of any coach of his era. Period. No coach who coached at the same time has a better winning percentage. Among coaches whose careers were entirely in the Super Bowl era, only George Allen and John Madden have better winning percentages.
- Number of losing seasons as a head coach: one. 6-8 in his first year in Tampa, capping off 14 consecutive losing seasons. The next year they made the playoffs for the first time since the strike year in 1982. This seems less ridiculous now, but Tampa was a LAUGHINGSTOCK, and he turned them around completely. People say he wins because of Peyton, but his QBs in Tampa were Trent Dilfer and Shaun King.
- First coach with six straight 12 win seasons, ever.
- Enormous strategic impact on the game, as the chief architect of the “Tampa 2″ which has become a staple in the league.
It’s an open and shut case. He’s a first ballot hall of fame coach.
Oh, and as for my other favorite team – I think Campbell is still worth building around.
There’s some good points there. I think I kind of forgot about Dungy’s work with the Bucs, which is weird because it was very good stuff. But he’s been with the Colts for so long now that I just naturally think of that as having been his coaching career. But I agree, adding in the TB stuff makes his resume look as good as Cowher’s, if not better.
Plus, let’s not forget him being the first African American coach to win a Super Bowl. I’m not saying that should get him in Hall of Fame, but I’m guessing more than a few voters will think that.
Yeah, that will have an impact. Another sort of side-note that will have an impact is how well-regarded Dungy is. Not just because of his community involvement, but the way he’s frequently finished #1 in player surveys answering the question, “what coach would you most like to play for”. You can argue either way about whether that should matter, but it’s clear that at least some people will take it into account.
If Dungy had only coached the Colts it WOULD be a difficult case, because we would have a hard time divorcing his record from the peak years of Peyton Manning. But the success in Tampa Bay basically erases any doubt about his coaching abilities. Conversely, we can see that Mike Holmgren is a good-but-not-great coach when he doesn’t have Brett Favre at his peak.
Much in the same way, we know that Parcells is incredible at picking personnel (both players and coaches) because we can see that effect from team to team. We’ll find out how good Cowher is without Dick Lebeau once he takes another job. And we know that whatever magic Belichick works in New England, it hasn’t extended to his coaches and coordinators when they take other jobs. (Over the next few years, we’ll begin to find out how much of the success can be attributed to Pioli’s personnel moves.)
A good stat to mix excellence and longevity is games over .500. Here’s the all-time top 10:
1) Shula
Dungy
2) Halas
3) Brown
4) Lambeau
5) Landry
6) Schottenheimer
7) Madden
9) Allen
10) Lombardi
Cowher and Belichick are 13 and 14; Holmgren and Shannahan are 17 and 18; Parcells is 21.
To me, Belichick, Dungy, and Parcells are clearly in. Cowher still has time to add to his resume. Holmgren falls short, in my opinion.
The interesting cases from this era are Shannahan and Schottenheimer, for very different reasons. Shannahan was good for a long time (2 losing seasons in 14 years in Denver) but he only won a single playoff game in 10 years after Elway retired. He’s probably in, and definitely in if he can make another winner in another town, but it’s not open-and-shut.
Schottenheimer is an even more interesting case. He built a winner in three different cities and has piled up an incredible regular season record. It’s just a question of how important you think that big gaping hole in his resume is.
Campbell in DC seems to be worth building around. His lack of interceptions for a very long time this season was an promising sign of decision-making skills improving. The Redskins seem to lack depth in the offensive line, injuries that took out the starters really hurt them this season.