Pick Confidence – Conference Championships

Tom here with the confidence rankings for the two conference championship games:

Matchup
(Winner-Loser)
“Confidence”
(out of 100)
BeatPower comparison
(predicted winner – predicted loser)
Result
Philadelphia-Arizona 18.6 90.0-71.4 WRONG
Pittsburgh-Baltimore 4.9 85.7-80.8 CORRECT

Both of these picks conform well to the conventional wisdom.

One curious note: Beatpaths has a 1-6 record of predicting the results of Philadelphia games since correctly picking their loss to Baltimore in Week 12. I’ve been used to Beatpaths picking against Philly and being happy to see it proven wrong. Now that Beatpaths is finally picking them to win, I’m suddenly anxious about their winning streak coming to an end in the desert.

In comparison, Beatpaths is 3-4 picking Arizona results over the same period, 5-1 picking Pittsburgh, and 4-3 picking Baltimore.

2 Responses to Pick Confidence – Conference Championships

  1. Rick says:

    I wasn’t surprised to see the Eagles lose. I am an Eagles fan, but not a pessimist like so many. I truly wanted them to win, and thought they could’ve (and should’ve…pass INT no calls are a PITA – on both Avant at the 10 and Curtis late in the game).

    Still, the Cardinals were playing on a bizarre level, and winning with Defense, something they had NOT done during the regular season. In the last game, the Cardinals played at a SICK defensive level in the first half, which pretty much made the game for them. Even though the Eagles stormed back, Akers’ problems cost them the game. Leaving 4 points on the field no doubt cost them the game…having those 4 points would’ve meant McNabb could run the ball at the end, making the offense less predictable.

    As far as Beatpaths goes, I still think many major changes need to be made to make this a reliable tool. No doubt, it will call for a Pittsburgh victory. I don’t see it though. The Cardinals, if they continue to play at this very high level (and I think they will) will absolutely crush Pittsburgh. This sounds incongruous, as Pittsburgh is clearly superior. However, the time and play are right and Warner more than Roethlisberger, is a veteran.

    Pittsburgh is going to play a Defense that is playing only slightly worse than Baltimore’s at this point, but an offense such as they have never seen. I just don’t see this being a contest.

  2. Tom says:

    I agree with your sentiments about the Eagles. And I agree that the Cardinals have been exceptionally coached into the post-season, and are performing at peak levels because of it.

    I’m pulling for a Cardinals win. I just can’t get behind another Super Bowl win from that team on the other side of the state.

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