Here’s the graph after the wildcard round. Two games had no impact: BAL already had a beatwin over MIA. IND has an alternate beatpath to SD to overcome the season split. But, the PHI->MIN win creates a PHI->MIN->NYG->WAS->PHI beatloop, removing beatlosses for both NYG and PHI. And, the ARI->ATL win busts two longer beatloops in [...]
Hey folks, Tom here again. One important aspect to designing a system like Beatpaths is to look for confirmation that the system is indeed getting better as more information is fed into it. I’ve already been looking into one aspect of this, by tracking the stability of the rankings that Beatpaths produces week-on-week. As more [...]
Tom once again—a bit late in the day, but I thought I’d get these up here as the games started in earnest. Matchup(Winner-Loser) “Confidence”(out of 100) BeatPower comparison(predicted winner – predicted loser) Result Indianapolis-San Diego 79.4 98.2-18.8 WRONG Baltimore-Miami 37.6 82.0-44.4 CORRECT Atlanta-Arizona 26.8 75.0-48.2 WRONG Minnesota-Philadelphia 26.8 83.9-57.1 WRONG Beatpaths seems much more confident [...]
Tom here again—I’ve disaggregated the ranking changes week-on-week by individual team here. Compare with the normal ranking stability graph and you can see how high instability weeks correlate with messy areas in this graph. The middle area of this graph shows much greater clarity because of the stability in rankings during that period. Finally, the [...]
Tom here—the final week of the regular season calmed the rankings significantly. Only one “big mover” (teams moving 10+ ranks) this week, Denver, a team that has confounded the beatpaths system throughout the year. I first started looking into ranking stability on the intuition that the system ought to become more accurate at placing teams [...]
Hey gang, Kenneth here. Well, the regular season’s over. The graph, and rankings, will probably be pretty stable from now on. You may get some movement at the top, but for most of the teams, this is how their seasons went. So let’s get to it…and a new team at the top! Rank Team Notes [...]