Pick Confidence – Super Bowl

Tom here with the confidence ranking for the Super Bowl:

Matchup
(Winner-Loser)
“Confidence”
(out of 100)
BeatPower comparison
(predicted winner – predicted loser)
Result
Pittsburgh-Arizona 12.5 85.7-73.2 CORRECT

Beatpaths has a 3-7 pick record in the post-season. One notable difference between the regular season picks and the post-season picks is that very few of the post-season picks are high confidence. Of the ten games played so far, only two had a confidence rating over 50 (Pittsburgh-San Diego was called correctly, Indianapolis-San Diego was an upset).

The Super Bowl is no different from the rest of the post-season: a low confidence pick, one subject to greater rates of error than high confidence picks. However, Beatpath’s pick (a Steeler’s victory) conforms broadly with the conventional wisdom about this game: Pittsburgh is expected to do better on the strength of having the best defense in the league.

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