Tom here with the confidence ranking for the Super Bowl:
(out of 100)
(predicted winner – predicted loser)
Beatpaths has a 3-7 pick record in the post-season. One notable difference between the regular season picks and the post-season picks is that very few of the post-season picks are high confidence. Of the ten games played so far, only two had a confidence rating over 50 (Pittsburgh-San Diego was called correctly, Indianapolis-San Diego was an upset).
The Super Bowl is no different from the rest of the post-season: a low confidence pick, one subject to greater rates of error than high confidence picks. However, Beatpath’s pick (a Steeler’s victory) conforms broadly with the conventional wisdom about this game: Pittsburgh is expected to do better on the strength of having the best defense in the league.