Just piping in here with a random posting.
Call me a homer, but I don’t think the 2009 Broncos draft was the disaster that many people think.
The Broncos had a killer offense last year in terms of yards, but not points. They were great between the twenties, and then fizzled. They had a problem with finishing. I suppose it’s even possible that McDaniels concluded this was partly a problem with Cutler, leading to his strange passive treatment of him, but one obvious solution for the red zone problems is a good, powerful running back. Knowshon Moreno could potentially solve several offense problems all at once. He’d reduce pressure on the quarterback both as a pass blocker and a consistent hard runner. Furthermore, the red zone improvement would reduce pressure on the defense. When you’ve got a distance selling out to get the ball back quickly to make up a large deficit, they’re going to often give up even more points, kind of like a basketball team fouling when they’re behind. Additionally, the Broncos had one of the lowest numbers of rush attempts last season, and this is for an offense that racked up a lot of yards. I don’t know what this did to time of possession statistics, but it seems to me that a good consistent runner would also reduce a defense’s exhaustion. I also think that this offense could very well make Orton look amazing.
As for the defense, I had some initial questions after the draft, but they’re mostly resolved now. So much has been written about Denver’s front seven that it kind of distracted from the fact that Denver’s secondary was in pretty poor shape, too, even after the free agent acquisitions. Free agents are good for the near term, but McDaniels drafted a good cornerback and free safety that have been given short shrift by the analysts since they weren’t linebackers.
As for the front seven, my sense with the defense all last season was that they never gelled, and it was because of lack of talent. But a defense can be one or two players away from every player all of a sudden looking a lot more talented. And there was so much defensive staff turnover over these last few years that they really might have been doing a lousy job developing raw talent – see Moss, Crowder, Thomas. I’m holding out hope that these players might actually see rapid improvement now. If McDaniels saw that there was possibility there, then he may have thought it would be worth it to wait until the 2010 draft for more DL work, in favor of shoring up other parts of the team.
As far as the other recently noted objections – Denver saw their early 2nd round pick as having 1st-round talent, and so chose to get better now. Seattle held firm on which 1st round pick they wanted, so Denver didn’t really have the choice of giving them their Chicago 1st rounder instead.
Overall I see it as a creative draft, which can be a bit alarming when you have a young coach you aren’t sure of. But with a bit more perspective I don’t yet see it as a reason to freak out. Although since Seattle has Denver’s pick now, I wonder if that should make me more of a Seattle fan. (Chicago having Cutler doesn’t make me more of a Chicago fan, though… I like Chicago more than I like Cutler.)
I have to disagree with you a little here, boss. Not that I follow the Broncos as closely as you, but from where I stand it seems like there have been a lot of mis-steps since McDaniels took over.
The Cutler thing is the big part. Which, I guess, doesn’t have anything to do with the draft. But really, I feel like this could have been avoided with some work by McDaniels, but he let things get out of control. Now, Cutler obviously deserves blame for what happened, too. But at the end of the day, I don’t think he hurt himself overall. Denver did–they lost a young Pro Bowl QB. I think they had to step up to fix it, more than Cutler did, and they didn’t. That doesn’t reflect well on McDaniels in my opinion.
As far as the defense goes, I think you might have this backwards. A good offense will usually HELP the defense, not hurt it. Maybe it’s just from watching the Bears the last 5 seasons or so.
But the thing that really kills a defense is when the offense goes 3 and out, especially several times in a game. That will make a defense less effective over the course of a game. I’d be worried about that now, with Orton (or whoever) at the helm.
I should say–I think Orton is a decent QB, and I don’t think the Broncos offense will collapse with him. But I don’t think he’s on the level of Jay Cutler. There will be a drop off.
As for the draft specifically…I thought there were a lot of curious–heck, bad–moves. First off, Moreno. Not that I think the logic is flawed exactly. A boost in the running game makes sense. But first off, the Broncos added a lot of talented also-rans in free agency; was it worth spending the #12 pick on a back? Especially considering the RB position is one that you can find a lot of value later on. And, is Moreno really worth that high of a pick? I’m not convinced; while I think he’s a talented back, I don’t think you’ll be able to hitch your wagon to him for 20 rushes a game.
I realize there’s a chance he would have gone between 12th and 18th, but I think you would have been better off going with D at the 12th (Orakpo or Jenkins, I guess) and then grabbing a RB at the 18th (or later, if you’re gutsy).
And I think the trade was a great blunder. Maybe Smith is a first round talent that slipped. But that’s a first rounder in THIS YEAR’s draft. They gave up a first rounder in NEXT YEAR’s, and the problem is the difference in talent in each year. Everything I’ve heard/read says that this year was a down year for talent, and next year is expected to be much better overall. So, even if Smith is as good as McDaniels thinks, he still hurt himself by giving away a pick that is (likely) more valuable than what he got. I would not be surprised to see Denver’s spot be at 12 or higher next year (sorry TT), so I think they’re going to miss out on a real talent next year. So Smith had better be worth that.
Overall, I’m just not convinced that they’ve really improved the team. There seems to be a lot of “we’re smarter than they are” mad-genius type moves, which is fine if you are a genius. But I’m not sure McDaniels is. The Belicheck coaching tree does not have a particularly strong record. I hope for the Bronco’s sake that McDaniels bucks the trend.
As for the draft itself