Monthly Archives: September 2009

2009 NFL Week 3 Beatpath Rankings

Hey all! This is your old pal Kenneth here again, ready to give completely useless commentary on the rankings once again. Site owner ThunderThumbs asked me to help out, but I couldn’t make it the last few weeks, so I’m here now. Let’s get to it! Rank Team Notes Last Week BeatPower 1 (Beat OAK) […]

2009 NFL Week 3 Beatpath Graph

Another relatively accurate week. Isaacson-Tarbell was 12-4. Beatpaths was 12-4. They disagreed on two games, though, and ITB ended up 13-3, missing only on DET>WAS, JAC>HOU, and NE>ATL. I was also 13-3, so I’m still tied. Also, now that we’re through the first three weeks of the season, I’m going to pick a tiebreaker to […]

2009 NFL Week 2 Beatpath Rankings

Ranking for Week 2 – note we’re still using an inferior tie-breaker as we wait for things to shake out a little more. We respect the beatpath graph, and otherwise rely on the previous week’s rankings. This means that if a previous season’s “bad” team beats a previous season’s “good” team, the losing teams sink […]

2009 NFL Week 3 Beatpath Picks

Time for the Week 3 picks. The “official picks” should again be considered the ITB picks, the last column. My “personal picks” had the same record as the “official pics” in week 2, so, still tied there. There are three BeatPicks – picks that are dictated by the graph itself. As for my personal picks, […]

Backtesting, Revised

I messed up a bit on the previous bit of backtesting, although the way I messed up was informative. The previous round of backtesting tested the beatflukes variant (not vanilla), and each year had all the game results of the previous seasons in my dataset. So, 2006’s results was using a beatpath graph based off […]


I’ve managed to fire up my old wonky backtesting system. It doesn’t have a lot of ability yet, but it gives some interesting information. Here’s what I’ve found. Year Random uNet Prev. Week Beatloop Str. Fractional BPower/Win/Loop Str. of Beatwins Bucklin UPower UPower/Loop UNet-Lookahead 2004 (84-57) 150-117 166-101 157-110 160-107 164-103 167-100 166-101 161-106 164-103 […]

2009 NFL Week 2 Beatpath Graph

A new graph, and the first interesting one of the 2009 season. Beatpaths picks were 12-4 this week – the other two were slightly worse – we’ll review them when we make the Week 3 picks. Remember that the top of the graph does not necessarily mean the highest-ranked team – it might just be […]

2009 NFL Week 2 Beatpath Picks

Time for the 2nd week of picks! I’m going to try something different this week, a grid showing the different pick techniques we’ve been discussing. The “official picks” should be considered the ITB picks, the last column. I haven’t yet decided if I will track personal picks all year long, but just for the record, […]

2009 NFL Week 1 Beatpath Rankings

Time for the season’s first power rankings! These rankings respect all the wins and losses so far, and otherwise tiebreak according to the rankings at the end of last season, after the Super Bowl. For the early part of the season, we’re not using any other tiebreakers, so that simply means that a team will […]