Here’s a review of Isaacson-Tarbell, which we should compare our picking schemes against this season. Isaacson-Tarbell is “picking for idiots”. And it’s pretty bulletproof – it seems most pick experts can’t outperform it. The picking rules are: Pick the team with the better win-loss record. If they’re tied, pick the home team. Isaacson-Tarbell was 9-7 [...]

I thought I’d take the opportunity to trace through the general strategy here, both to get my brain clearer for the season, but also to review for whoever is reading. We start out with all the wins and losses for the season so far. The first design choice I made was to ignore points, and [...]