Time for the season’s first power rankings! These rankings respect all the wins and losses so far, and otherwise tiebreak according to the rankings at the end of last season, after the Super Bowl. For the early part of the season, we’re not using any other tiebreakers, so that simply means that a team will not fall in the rankings until they get beat.
| Rank | Team | Notes | Last Week | BeatPower |
1 |
 |
(Beat JAC) Indianapolis ended last season ranked first, after being upset in the playoffs. There have been coaching and scheme changes this offseason, which is why there doesn’t seem to be a lot of buzz about them. |
1 |
100.0(1/1 – 0/1) |
2 |
 |
(Beat HOU) The most controversial beatpath ranking at the end of last season. They were propped up by an interconference game last season that never got beatlooped away. Other systems like Football Outsiders had them ranked #28 at the beginning of this season. Still, I think the Jets looked worse at the end of the season than their whole-season performance would indicate, given Favre’s dramatic swan song. He’s not there anymore, and the Jets won’t sink until they get beat. |
2 |
100.0(1/1 – 0/1) |
3 |
 |
(Beat TEN) Pittsburgh and Tennessee were very closely ranked at the end of last season, and so the result of this game changes nothing – still #3 and #4. |
4 |
100.0(1/1 – 0/1) |
4 |
 |
(Lost to PIT) Incidentally, this game is one we picked incorrectly, but that Isaacson-Tarbell picked correctly. |
3 |
0.0(0/1 – 1/1) |
5 |
 |
(Beat WAS) The Giants beat Washington, and travel to Dallas next, where they will again be favored. |
5 |
100.0(1/1 – 0/1) |
6 |
 |
(Beat BUF) I wish I could drop New England a few notches just from their performance against Buffalo, but a win is a win. |
6 |
100.0(1/1 – 0/1) |
7 |
 |
(Beat KC) Baltimore defeats Kansas City in a game that wasn’t as close as it looked. |
7 |
100.0(1/1 – 0/1) |
8 |
 |
(Beat TB) Dallas is the beneficiary of a few higher-ranked teams losing. Looking forward to what drama the video board might cause. |
11 |
100.0(1/1 – 0/1) |
9 |
 |
(Beat CIN) Unnoticed in the end-of-game drama was that Denver’s collapse late the game was almost as unlikely as Cincinnati’s just afterward. |
12 |
100.0(1/1 – 0/1) |
10 |
 |
(Beat CLE) Look for the Vikings to be the team that has a crazy-looking ranking this season. |
13 |
100.0(1/1 – 0/1) |
11 |
 |
(Lost to NYJ) The Texans lose to a highly ranked NY Jets team, and climb in the rankings because of other intervening teams losing. |
14 |
0.0(0/1 – 1/1) |
12 |
 |
(Beat MIA) One of the five beatpaths upsets of the week, as Miami was ranked relatively highly at the end of the regular season. |
15 |
100.0(1/1 – 0/1) |
13 |
 |
(Lost to ATL) With the way the tiebreaker works, since Miami’s beatloss disappears as soon as Atlanta is ranked, it then sees that Miami was ranked higher than all remaining teams at the end of last season, and thus takes the next ranking spot. |
9 |
0.0(0/1 – 1/1) |
14 |
 |
(Lost to DEN) Cincinnati rises a couple of notches due to other teams losing. |
16 |
0.0(0/1 – 1/1) |
15 |
 |
(Beat ARI) The outcome of this game hurt St. Louis more than it helped San Francisco, because SF wasn’t ranked very highly at the end of last season. That’s the other behavior of this tiebreaker and why we move away from it when the beatloops come into play; a team that used to be bad cannot rise above other teams unless it develops a beatpath to them. Otherwise they will also be ranked behind them. |
17 |
100.0(1/1 – 0/1) |
16 |
 |
(Lost to SF) St. Louis takes a tumble. |
8 |
0.0(0/1 – 1/1) |
17 |
 |
(Beat CAR) Same situation here – Philadelphia rises a little bit, after being ranked low last season. Philadelphia in beatpaths lore is San Diego’s sister team, a team that always seems to be a darling of other rankings systems, and then underperforms. More talent than team. |
18 |
100.0(1/1 – 0/1) |
18 |
 |
(Lost to PHI) Carolina takes a tumble. |
10 |
0.0(0/1 – 1/1) |
19 |
 |
(Lost to DAL) Tampa Bay rises slightly due to other graph dynamics. |
20 |
0.0(0/1 – 1/1) |
20 |
 |
(Lost to NE) I couldn’t believe that that returner’s lawn got torched. |
21 |
0.0(0/1 – 1/1) |
21 |
 |
(Beat DET) According to last season’s ranking, this outcome underscores how lousy Detroit is, not how good New Orleans is. I can’t remember though, didn’t New Orleans have a major injury situation last season that they don’t now? |
22 |
100.0(1/1 – 0/1) |
22 |
 |
(Beat OAK) San Diego was ranked very low at the end of last season, they’ll have to earn their way up. |
23 |
100.0(1/1 – 0/1) |
23 |
 |
(Lost to NYG) No major change in the rankings for Washington. |
24 |
0.0(0/1 – 1/1) |
24 |
 |
(Lost to MIN) Cleveland ended the season ranked rather low, too – if the rankings are right, Denver should be easily favored over them. |
25 |
0.0(0/1 – 1/1) |
25 |
 |
(Lost to SD) Oakland played pretty well, but it’s not as impressive as it seems given that San Diego was ranked so low. |
26 |
0.0(0/1 – 1/1) |
26 |
 |
(Lost to IND) I’ve bought into the conventional wisdom here, too – it seems like Jacksonville really should be ranked higher. I don’t remember why they were ranked so low last season. |
27 |
0.0(0/1 – 1/1) |
27 |
 |
(Beat CHI) Green Bay was ranked low last season, so they don’t get a major benefit for beating Chicago. |
28 |
100.0(1/1 – 0/1) |
28 |
 |
(Lost to GB) Chicago takes a major tumble for losing to a lowly-ranked team. |
19 |
0.0(0/1 – 1/1) |
29 |
 |
(Lost to BAL) Kansas City holds steady. |
29 |
0.0(0/1 – 1/1) |
30 |
 |
(Beat STL) It was #32 at #30 last week, so despite the shutout, no real evidence yet (based off of opponent strength) to see Seattle as improved. |
30 |
100.0(1/1 – 0/1) |
31 |
 |
(Lost to NO) Detroit loses as expected. |
31 |
0.0(0/1 – 1/1) |
32 |
 |
(Lost to SEA) St. Louis loses as expected, and I think it’s right they’re ranked last. This team seems like it just gave up halfway through the game. |
32 |
0.0(0/1 – 1/1) |
Why is it that you want to drop New England a couple notches from 6th when conventional wisdom says they are still one of the best teams in the league? They dominated time of possession. Brady went 39/53 (73.6% complete) for 378 yards, earning him AFC Offensive Player of the Week. My feeling is that those two roughing the passer calls (one the league admitted was a poor call), plus the incredible pick-6 by Schobel, and two very good 4th down stands (which the Patriots typically convert), are all that kept Buffalo in the game.
Also, regarding the Buffalo return guy. He’s lucky all that happened was his lawn got vandalized. He could have ended up like this guy. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrés_Escobar
I have to admit I’m an Eagles fan before I make this statement, but the commentary on them is hilarious.
Last year they underperformed? The NFC Championship is underperforming?
Wow. 5 NFC Championships in 8 years is underperforming?
Stunning.
Look, they haven’t won the Super Bowl, and that’s clearly indicative of some “kind of underperformance”. But it’s not underperformance. You can only have 1 Super Bowl winner per year. Making the playoffs is a key component of high level play. The Eagles have made the playoffs in 8 of the last 10 years. How many other teams have done that? Not many.
Sure, some ranking systems have them as a top rated team, some have them as 1 or 2. But most have them in top 5 range regularly (aside from the 2 years they didn’t make it to the playoffs, when they were much lower). As a playoff team, top 5 is about right.
So spare the hyperbole and stick to facts. I’ve been a regular visitor here the last 2-3 years, and I kind’ve like the “system” (such as it is), but I’ve been unsparing in my criticism of some clear flaws. Don’t add opinion based illogic to the flaws.
Last year beatpaths had the Eagles rated as a very mediocre team, and they wound up only a few points shy of the Super Bowl. One solid defensive hold would’ve been the difference. Saying they are overrated by other systems is an attempt to pay your system more value than it’s worth. Which isn’t to say it’s bad…just that (like any other system) its flaws cannot be hidden. To add your opinion, indicating a certain bias away from overall performance, is absurd.
Hey everyone, Rick’s back! Hi, Rick!
Don’t worry Rick, the weighted method has PHI at #1!
Moose – LOL.
I’m not concerned on where the Eagles wind up (except as a fan). I’m merely seeking information on how teams are performing in an objective fashion. If I use the Eagles as examples, it’s only because I know them best, though I have used other teams in the past.
And hello Thunder. It seems odd to say hello to people via anonymity.