Time for the 2nd week of picks! I’m going to try something different this week, a grid showing the different pick techniques we’ve been discussing.
The “official picks” should be considered the ITB picks, the last column. I haven’t yet decided if I will track personal picks all year long, but just for the record, I’d go against the “official picks” by picking Jacksonville, New Orleans, Buffalo, and Dallas.
| Isaacson-Tarbell | Beatpaths | Isaacson-Tarbell-Beatpaths | |
| Record So Far | 9-7 | 11-5 | 11-5 |
| Last Week | 9-7 | 11-5 | 11-5 |
| New England at NY Jets: This game is possibly where the chickens come home to roost regarding last season’s interconference games. Beatpaths has the NY Jets ranked ahead of New England. However, since both teams won last week and the NY Jets are the home team, all three methods are in agreement on this pick. | NYJ | NYJ | NYJ |
| Carolina at Atlanta: Atlanta is the home team, Atlanta won last week while Carolina lost, and Atlanta is ranked higher in the beatpaths rankings. Three for three. However, it’s worth noting that the beginning-of-season rankings would have had Carolina favored. | ATL | ATL | ATL |
| Cincinnati at Green Bay: Cincinnati lost, and Green Bay won. Conventional wisdom would suggest an easy Green Bay victory. This is a good time to explain the difference between beatpaths’ early season tiebreaker, and the “strength of beatpower” tiebreaker. The latter would have simply ranked all sixteen winners ahead of all sixteen losers this week, which is why I wait to phase it in. That said, it might have been the more accurate method regarding this matchup. Beatpaths still ranks Cincinnati ahead of Green Bay. | GB | CIN | GB |
| Houston at Tennessee: This one is a very clear pick – all methods pick Tennessee over Houston. Regardless, this could still be a close game – I think Houston is better than they seemed last week, just because it’s still possible the NY Jets might be better than people think. | TEN | TEN | TEN |
| Minnesota at Detroit: Another very clear pick. If I were King Kaufman, this would probably be a What The Heck pick of the week for Detroit, but all signs point to Minnesota. Favre’s first NFC North squabble since being with Green Bay. | MIN | MIN | MIN |
| Arizona at Jacksonville: Both teams lost last week, so IT can’t go for the better record – they pick the home team. The media expects Jacksonville to be great this season. I don’t recall what it is about them that is so improved, but they were ranked very low at the end of last season. Meanwhile, Arizona ended up fairly high due to their postseason run. I suspect that IT will gain one on beatpaths through this game. | JAC | ARI | ARI |
| New Orleans at Philadelphia: All three methods pick Philadelphia, but they’re pretty closely ranked. I’m guessing amateur prognosticators would have a shot at gaining one on the systems here, due to McNabb being out for the game. | PHI | PHI | PHI |
| Oakland at Kansas City: Both teams lost, so IT picks the home team. However, Oakland is ranked slight ahead of Kansas City, so Beatpaths and ITB go for Oakland. This should be a good game – I think these two teams have probably the most intense rivalry in the division. (I certainly miss the Raiders/Seahawks games, though.) | KC | OAK | OAK |
| St. Louis at Washington: A clear pick again – both teams lost, but St. Louis is ranked last and Washington is at home. | WAS | WAS | WAS |
| Tampa Bay at Buffalo: This is a very closely ranked match, as Tampa Bay is ranked only one slot ahead of Buffalo. I didn’t see any of the Tampa Bay footage, but Buffalo looked good in Week 1. In the past, I’ve run beatpaths variants flipping the pick if the home team is within 2-3 slots of the away team, so I’d be tempted to pick Buffalo here anyway. | BUF | TB | TB |
| Seattle at San Francisco: San Francisco is ranked comfortably ahead of Seattle, based off of last season. A clear pick for all three methods. | SF | SF | SF |
| Pittsburgh at Chicago: Pittsburgh has the better record, and is ranked comfortably ahead of Chicago. All three methods pick the away team. It’d be quite the story if Chicago’s new QB lifted them ahead in this game. | PIT | PIT | PIT |
| Baltimore at San Diego: Both teams won last week, but Baltimore is ranked ahead of San Diego. This game and the OAK@KC game should tell us a lot about all four teams. | SD | BAL | BAL |
| Cleveland at Denver: Even if Denver had lost last week, all three methods would be picking Denver to win. | DEN | DEN | DEN |
| NY Giants at Dallas: I can’t wait for the video board drama!! Both teams won, Dallas is at home, the Giants are more highly ranked, but not by much. This is a big game with two top-ten teams. | DAL | NYG | NYG |
| Indianapolis at Miami: A clear pick for the #1-ranked team. All three methods agree. | IND | IND | IND |
Wow – we have a DEN->CIN->GB->CHI->PIT->TEN chain. If I used the normal tiebreaker that I usually switch to in Week 4, Denver would be ranked #1 in the power rankings.
NY Jets might actually be good. Tennessee might actually be lousy. Pittsburgh may be mediocre. Green Bay might be not all that impressive, Chicago might still be very good after opening-day jitters… time will tell.
There were some sick stats this week. Kurt Warner was 24/26 or something.
As far as I can tell, the Eagles loss had less to do with McNabb (Kolb did okay), than it had to do with 4 turnovers and a defense that seemingly could do nothing to slow down Drew Brees.