I messed up a bit on the previous bit of backtesting, although the way I messed up was informative. The previous round of backtesting tested the beatflukes variant (not vanilla), and each year had all the game results of the previous seasons in my dataset. So, 2006′s results was using a beatpath graph based off of game outcomes from 2003 – 2006.

I’ve managed to configure the backtesting script a bit more correctly now, and I’ve also included a first stab of the tiebreaker method that uses paths in and paths out, which is what Moose uses for his non-weighted rankings. Below is the grid for the vanilla variant.

Year	Random	uNet	Prev. Week	Beatloop Str.	Fractional	BPower/Win/Loop	Str. of Beatwins	Bucklin	UPower	UPower/Loop	UNet-Lookahead	Paths In/Out
2004 (50-33)	149-118	160-107	153-114	158-109	153-114	162-105	158-109	156-111	153-114	161-106	153-114	157-110
2005 (71-30)	160-107	167-100	167-100	164-103	165-102	162-105	169-98	168-99	165-102	162-105	167-100	167-100
2006 (56-46)	147-120	154-113	151-116	150-117	154-113	156-111	155-112	154-113	154-113	153-114	151-116	150-117
2007 (89-35)	166-101	170-97	160-107	162-105	168-99	170-97	166-101	170-97	168-99	169-98	160-107	173-94
2008 (73-44)	156-110	152-114	157-109	158-108	152-114	147-119	154-112	159-107	152-114	148-118	157-109	152-114
TOTAL: 64.33%	58.32%	60.19%	59.07%	59.37%	59.37%	59.74%	60.12%	60.49%	59.37%	59.45%	59.07%	59.90%

And here are all the tiebreaker variants for single-year data sets using beatflukes graphs:

Year	Random	uNet	Prev. Week	Beatloop Str.	Fractional	BPower/Win/Loop	Str. of Beatwins	Bucklin	UPower	UPower/Loop	UNet-Lookahead	Paths In/Out
2004 (54-34)	151-116	157-110	152-115	161-106	156-111	161-106	159-108	156-111	156-111	158-109	152-115	158-109
2005 (76-35)	152-115	169-98	168-99	168-99	168-99	165-102	172-95	166-101	168-99	162-105	168-99	165-102
2006 (67-53)	146-121	145-122	151-116	148-119	148-119	153-114	146-121	148-119	148-119	150-117	151-116	147-120
2007 (89-37)	161-106	172-95	166-101	164-103	167-100	175-92	166-101	167-100	167-100	171-96	166-101	173-94
2008 (80-49)	154-112	156-110	159-107	161-105	156-110	153-113	159-107	165-101	156-110	152-114	159-107	155-111
TOTAL: 63.76%	57.27%	59.90%	59.67%	60.12%	59.60%	60.49%	60.12%	60.12%	59.60%	59.45%	59.67%	59.82%

So, conclusions? First it’s odd and a bit discouraging that the accuracy for a season is pretty much indistinguishable from accuracy based off of multiple seasons of games all mixed together. As for the accuracy levels, I found one resource saying that Isaacson-Tarbell was 158-97-1 in 2008 – in the regular season. That’s 61.9%. None of the variants beat that, but the actual beatpath picks (a subset of all the games) do beat that. But, who’s to say that Isaacson-Tarbell wouldn’t pick that same subset even more accurately? At any rate, further investigation is required to see if some combination of beatpaths picks, better-record, and home team could beat Isaacson-Tarbell.