Time for the Week 5 picks.
We had yet another good week of picks last week – I’m thinking we’ve got to start regressing to the mean here shortly, but I think part of it is that the season has been pretty darn predictable so far. If anyone has a summary on how other pickers are doing out there, it’d be interesting to compare. Unfortunately, King Kaufman’s Panel O’ Experts doesn’t seem to exist anymore.
My personal picks were 2-0 last week, to equal the performance of Isaacson-Tarbell for the week, so I am two ahead of ITB. The BeatPicks were 2-0 last week, or 5-0 for the season. There are four BeatPicks this week, for MIN, ARI, IND, and NYJ (Beatpicks, personal picks). For my personal pick, I’m going to pick Carolina over Washington.
Once again, the beatpicks are: If there is a beatpath, pick the favored team. Otherwise, pick the team with the best win-loss record. If they’re the same, pick who beatpaths favors in the beatpath rankings. An (x) or a (y) means you might want to consider the home team.
Sorry for the delay in commentary – blah indeed.
|Record So Far||40-22||44-18||44-18|
|Cincinnati (3-1) at Baltimore (3-1): Since Cincinnati and Baltimore have the same record, IT defers to the home team. But beatpaths picks Cincinnati, so they are the ITB pick.||BAL||CIN||CIN|
|Cleveland (0-4) at Buffalo (1-3): Beatpaths actually picks Cleveland, because they haven’t lost to any mediocre opponents yet, even though Buffalo has won one more game. But, since Buffalo has the better record, Buffalo is the ITB pick.||BUF||CLE||BUF|
|Washington (2-2) at Carolina (0-3): Washington is the clear pick – however, in the rankings, they’re ranked closely enough that Carolina might have the home field advantage. Either way though, Washington is the ITB pick. Carolina also has the advantage of coming off the bye, though – at least, I tend to think that is an advantage for teams who have played poorly before the bye.||WAS||WAS(x)||WAS|
|Pittsburgh (2-2) at Detroit (1-3): In the new Edges tiebreaker, Pittsburgh and Detroit are fairly closely ranked, meaning home field advantage might have an impact. However, Pittsburgh would be the ITB pick either way.||PIT||PIT(y)||PIT|
|Dallas (2-2) at Kansas City (0-4): Dallas has only lost to undefeated teams, and has only beaten winless teams. That pattern might continue this week.||DAL||DAL||DAL|
|Oakland (1-3) at NY Giants (4-0): The Giants have sure had a soft schedule lately. Expect the NFC East to have slightly inflated win-loss records this season.||NYG||NYG||NYG|
|Tampa Bay (0-4) at Philadelphia (2-1): Philadelphia is the unanimous pick here.||PHI||PHI||PHI|
|Minnesota (4-0) at St. Louis (0-4): This is our first BeatPick of the week, as Minnesota already has a beatpath to St. Louis. You can see how BeatPicks are weighted by “obvious” picks, at least early in the season. Things will get more interesting soon, though.||MIN||MIN*||MIN|
|Atlanta (2-1) at San Francisco (3-1): This is the first time I’ve had to make a judgment call regarding Isaacson-Tarbell – do you go by more wins, losses, or winning percentage? They have the same number of losses, but I will go by win percentage. Any way around it, though, San Francisco is the pick.||SF||SF||SF|
|Houston (2-2) at Arizona (1-2): Things are officially interesting with this pick. It may be surprising to some that Arizona has a beatpath to Houston, making this a BeatPick. Since BeatPicks have precedence over who has the better record, Arizona is the ITB pick.||HOU||ARI*||ARI|
|New England (3-1) at Denver (4-0): For the second week in a row, Denver is the unanimous pick in what would feel like an upset!||DEN||DEN||DEN|
|Jacksonville (2-2) at Seattle (1-3): Jacksonville is the unanimous pick against Seattle.||JAC||JAC||JAC|
|Indianapolis (4-0) at Tennessee (0-4): Another unanimous pick, and this one is a BeatPick also, since Indianapolis has a beatpath to Tennessee.||IND||IND*||IND|
|NY Jets (3-1) at Miami (1-3): This game feels like it could be closer and I wouldn’t be surprised at an upset here, but the NY Jets have a beatpath to Miami. Prime beatloop opportunity here.||NYJ||NYJ*||NYJ|