2009 NFL Week 5 Beatpath Picks

Time for the Week 5 picks.

We had yet another good week of picks last week – I’m thinking we’ve got to start regressing to the mean here shortly, but I think part of it is that the season has been pretty darn predictable so far. If anyone has a summary on how other pickers are doing out there, it’d be interesting to compare. Unfortunately, King Kaufman’s Panel O’ Experts doesn’t seem to exist anymore.

My personal picks were 2-0 last week, to equal the performance of Isaacson-Tarbell for the week, so I am two ahead of ITB. The BeatPicks were 2-0 last week, or 5-0 for the season. There are four BeatPicks this week, for MIN, ARI, IND, and NYJ (Beatpicks, personal picks). For my personal pick, I’m going to pick Carolina over Washington.

Once again, the beatpicks are: If there is a beatpath, pick the favored team. Otherwise, pick the team with the best win-loss record. If they’re the same, pick who beatpaths favors in the beatpath rankings. An (x) or a (y) means you might want to consider the home team.

Sorry for the delay in commentary – blah indeed.

  Isaacson-Tarbell Beatpaths Isaacson-Tarbell-Beatpaths
Record So Far 40-22 44-18 44-18
Last Week 11-3 9-5 9-5
Cincinnati (3-1) at Baltimore (3-1): Since Cincinnati and Baltimore have the same record, IT defers to the home team. But beatpaths picks Cincinnati, so they are the ITB pick. BAL CIN CIN
Cleveland (0-4) at Buffalo (1-3): Beatpaths actually picks Cleveland, because they haven’t lost to any mediocre opponents yet, even though Buffalo has won one more game. But, since Buffalo has the better record, Buffalo is the ITB pick. BUF CLE BUF
Washington (2-2) at Carolina (0-3): Washington is the clear pick – however, in the rankings, they’re ranked closely enough that Carolina might have the home field advantage. Either way though, Washington is the ITB pick. Carolina also has the advantage of coming off the bye, though – at least, I tend to think that is an advantage for teams who have played poorly before the bye. WAS WAS(x) WAS
Pittsburgh (2-2) at Detroit (1-3): In the new Edges tiebreaker, Pittsburgh and Detroit are fairly closely ranked, meaning home field advantage might have an impact. However, Pittsburgh would be the ITB pick either way. PIT PIT(y) PIT
Dallas (2-2) at Kansas City (0-4): Dallas has only lost to undefeated teams, and has only beaten winless teams. That pattern might continue this week. DAL DAL DAL
Oakland (1-3) at NY Giants (4-0): The Giants have sure had a soft schedule lately. Expect the NFC East to have slightly inflated win-loss records this season. NYG NYG NYG
Tampa Bay (0-4) at Philadelphia (2-1): Philadelphia is the unanimous pick here. PHI PHI PHI
Minnesota (4-0) at St. Louis (0-4): This is our first BeatPick of the week, as Minnesota already has a beatpath to St. Louis. You can see how BeatPicks are weighted by “obvious” picks, at least early in the season. Things will get more interesting soon, though. MIN MIN* MIN
Atlanta (2-1) at San Francisco (3-1): This is the first time I’ve had to make a judgment call regarding Isaacson-Tarbell – do you go by more wins, losses, or winning percentage? They have the same number of losses, but I will go by win percentage. Any way around it, though, San Francisco is the pick. SF SF SF
Houston (2-2) at Arizona (1-2): Things are officially interesting with this pick. It may be surprising to some that Arizona has a beatpath to Houston, making this a BeatPick. Since BeatPicks have precedence over who has the better record, Arizona is the ITB pick. HOU ARI* ARI
New England (3-1) at Denver (4-0): For the second week in a row, Denver is the unanimous pick in what would feel like an upset! DEN DEN DEN
Jacksonville (2-2) at Seattle (1-3): Jacksonville is the unanimous pick against Seattle. JAC JAC JAC
Indianapolis (4-0) at Tennessee (0-4): Another unanimous pick, and this one is a BeatPick also, since Indianapolis has a beatpath to Tennessee. IND IND* IND
NY Jets (3-1) at Miami (1-3): This game feels like it could be closer and I wouldn’t be surprised at an upset here, but the NY Jets have a beatpath to Miami. Prime beatloop opportunity here. NYJ NYJ* NYJ

14 Responses to 2009 NFL Week 5 Beatpath Picks

  1. The MOOSE says:

    I would be extremely surprised if DET is even close at halftime against PIT. I think it’s crazy to think home field will help DET even the least bit.

    Regarding your question in the ATL/SF game, yes it goes by best record which means winning percentage.

    I would also be surprised by a MIA win over NYJ. MIA’s quarterback is out and they weren’t that good with him in. NYJ has been pretty solid so far this year.

  2. Tom says:

    Moose, Detroit was tied with the Bears at halftime last week. And without Polamalu, the Steelers’ defense isn’t what it was last year. I’m not saying Detroit is going to keep up with the Steelers, but it’s not unreasonable to think they could.

  3. Kenneth says:

    I would agree with Tom. I’ve seen both teams (playing against my Bears), and while I think the Steelers are clearly better, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Lions win. They are definitely different from last year; they at least seem to know what they’re doing.

  4. doktarr says:

    Still beatloop-free pending the results of tonight’s NYJ/MIA game, right?

  5. ThunderThumbs says:

    Yes – still no beatloops.

    I’m pretty mystified about ATL->SF.

    Looking at the graph, I guess what would make that make sense is if the NFC North isn’t anywhere as good as they currently seem from their schedule. Chicago’s loss to Green Bay might not be reflective of those teams’ quality, though – I’m looking forward to MIN-CHI .

  6. ThunderThumbs says:

    Looks like Beatpaths is actually outperforming ITB so far – it had a 10-3 record this week (so far). All the methods agree on NYJ->MIA. So far we have IT at 7-6, Beatpaths at 10-3, and ITB at 9-4.

  7. Kenneth says:

    >Iā€™m looking forward to MIN-CHI.

    As we all are. šŸ™‚

  8. doktarr says:

    ATL->SF makes the graph a lot more vertical, but I don’t see how it invalidates the quality of the NFC North. San Fran doesn’t have a beatpath to any NFCN team.

    All ATL->SF does is make Atlanta (and the Saints, Jets, and Pats) look good. With Seattle and Arizona winning yesterday, San Fran’s position looks pretty solid, so that win puts a pretty large set of teams under Atlanta (nine additional teams, by my count).

  9. ThunderThumbs says:

    Well, I was thinking that just because SF played MIN so close. I know that doesn’t quite fit into a beatpath graph, but it still is curious to me.

  10. mm says:

    SF played MIN close because they blocked a field goal and returned it for a TD at the end of the first half. Yes, that’s a great play (10 point swing), but its a bit flukish, and doesn’t really show that the team going forward will be good (though it obviously doesn’t show they’ll be bad either).

  11. ThunderThumbs says:

    Oof, two minutes to go in the NYJ@MIA game, and I still don’t know who will win… beatloop, here we come (maybe)

  12. Tom says:

    Our first beatloop of the season!

  13. ThunderThumbs says:

    Wow, Miami put up a lot of yards on them. Henne’s stats look really good.

  14. ThunderThumbs says:

    Interesting beatloop, too: ATL->MIA->NYJ->NE->ATL .

    So, Miami sheds their beatloss to Atlanta instead of getting a beatwin over the Jets.

    The Jets don’t get a beatloss to Miami, but they lose their beatwin over New England.

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