2009 NFL Week 6 Beatpath Picks

Time for the Week 6 picks!

I picked Carolina->Washington correctly last week, so I am now three ahead of ITB for the season. The BeatPicks were 3-1 last week, missing MIA->NYJ, so they’re 8-1 so far this season. There are four BeatPicks this week, and for my personal pick, I’m going to pick Seattle to beat Arizona.

Once again, the beatpicks are: If there is a beatpath, pick the favored team. Otherwise, pick the team with the best win-loss record. If they’re the same, pick who beatpaths favors in the beatpath rankings. An (x) means you might want to consider the home team.

  Isaacson-Tarbell Beatpaths Isaacson-Tarbell-Beatpaths
Record So Far 47-29 54-22 53-23
Last Week 7-7 10-4 9-5
Houston (2-3) at Cincinnati (4-1): Cincinnati is a unanimous pick over Houston, and also has a Beatpath to them, so this is a BeatPick. Remember though that any BeatPick is also an opportunity for a beatloop. CIN CIN* CIN
Detroit (1-4) at Green Bay (2-2): Green Bay has a beatpath to Detroit, so this is also a unanimous pick and a BeatPick. GB GB* GB
St. Louis (0-5) at Jacksonville (2-3): These teams do not currently have a beatpath relationship. Seattle also shut out Jacksonville by a greater score than they shut out St. Louis, but Jacksonville is comfortably favored as a unanimous pick. JAC JAC JAC
Baltimore (3-2) at Minnesota (5-0): Baltimore still has this aura of dominance, even though it seems pretty divorced from the quality of their team. It’s weird, I can’t shake it. Either way, there will be some very nice beatpath pickups here to make the graph more vertical. Minnesota is unanimously favored. MIN MIN MIN
NY Giants (5-0) at New Orleans (4-0): This yields another question about Isaacson-Tarbell, but if we go by win percentage, it means we pick the home team. There are obviously no beatpath relationships between these teams, so the ITB pick will go New Orleans, since they are ranked higher. All in all it works out to a unanimous pick for New Orleans. NO NO NO
Cleveland (1-4) at Pittsburgh (3-2): No beatpath relationship here, but Pittsburgh is ranked comfortably ahead of Pittsburgh. Another unanimous pick. PIT PIT PIT
Carolina (1-3) at Tampa Bay (0-5): Believe it or not, Carolina actually has a beatpath to Tampa Bay. I’m very tempted to pick Tampa Bay here, but since I also picked Carolina over Washington, that means I’d actually be picking a beatloop. Something about that feels dirty. Unanimous, and a BeatPick. CAR CAR* CAR
Kansas City (0-5) at Washington (2-3): Jim Zorn’s got to be thankful that Kansas City is coming to town. On the other hand, KC played Dallas pretty tight, and if they give Washington trouble at home… oh boy. No beatpath, but this is a unanimous pick for Washington. WAS WAS WAS
Philadelphia (3-1) at Oakland (1-4): Philadelphia doesn’t have a beatpath to Oakland, but they’re unanimously favored. Philadelphia has had a cushy couple of weeks. PHI PHI PHI
Arizona (2-2) at Seattle (2-3): Finally, a close game. Arizona has the better record, and Arizona is also ranked one slot ahead of Seattle. So, while there’s no beatpath relationship, it’s a unanimous pick for Arizona, but home field advantage gives reason to flip the pick. I’m personally going to pick Seattle, because they’re so much better when Hasselbeck is playing. ARI ARI(x) ARI
Tennessee (0-5) at New England (3-2): New England actually doesn’t have a beatpath to Tennessee, which would lead to a crazy cool beatpath if Tennessee managed to pull it off. A unanimous pick for New England. NE NE NE
Buffalo (1-4) at NY Jets (3-2): Despite the NY Jets fall in the rankings this week, they’re still comfortably ranked ahead of Buffalo. No beatpath relationship, but the NY Jets have the unanimous pick. NYJ NYJ NYJ
Chicago (3-1) at Atlanta (3-1): This is the only game this week where both teams have the exact same record. I wonder if Isaacson-Tarbell’s performance over the years took a hit when the bye weeks were introduced. IT picks Atlanta since they play at home. There is no beatpath relationship, but the rankings also have Atlanta ranked two slots ahead of Chicago, so this is… yet another unanimous pick. ATL ATL ATL
Denver (5-0) at San Diego (2-2): Rounding out the picks are our last BeatPick of the week – Denver is unanimously favored due to multiple beatpath routes to San Diego. There could be some good graph carnage if San Diego upsets them. DEN DEN* DEN

7 Responses to 2009 NFL Week 6 Beatpath Picks

  1. ThunderThumbs says:

    The picks are completely unanimous this week, although there were a couple of close calls. Still, I was surprised!

  2. ThunderThumbs says:

    Woooow… Houston beating Cincinnati… *really* hurts Green Bay.

    Cincinnati could absorb the loss because they’ve also beaten Pittsburgh and Baltimore, but it creates a long beatloop that doesn’t affect most teams, but knocks Green Bay down the rankings quite a bit.

  3. ThunderThumbs says:

    And, BUF->NYJ has a big effect, too. Dang, very cool week.

  4. Tom says:

    “Very cool” is one way to put it. Getting a lot of ‘safe’ picks upset is another way to put it. But, at least Accuscore and FootballOutsiders got them all wrong too. And both of them gave the wrong pick for Arizona-Seattle additionally.

  5. ThunderThumbs says:

    Yeah, I think if anyone got 100% pick accuracy for a season, I’d be way more likely to think that they were pretty lousy at picking games, than extremely good at it. There are just so many clear upsets every season. Who in their right mind would pick Oakland over Philadelphia?

  6. ThunderThumbs says:

    All methods were 8-4 this week. Well, I personally was 7-5. D’oh!

  7. The MOOSE says:

    New graphs and commentary are up on BeatGraphs. More when the post here is up.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *